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It's probably fine and most people are OK until something bad happens. Doesn't matter what city in Europe or US or any other parts of the world for that matter. Watch theft can be a crime of opportunity or targeted... And yes, people have been assaulted, beaten, and in some cases killed unfortunately for a watch :(.
1. Long sleeves certainly help with covering the watch.
2. If you do decide to wear, make sure it's insured.
3. How well can you handle yourself (meaning, are you physically fit, can you fight, can you defend yourself, can you run fast, etc.) - while I'm not suggesting you get into physical altercations, but outcomes can be vastly different if you're 6'5", strong and know how to fight vs. someone who's unfit and isn't trained... Just saying... again not encouraging anyone to get into fights - just saying you should know your own ability to handle yourself in a bad situation.
4. Situational awareness is 100% key here - and at all times! I'm always looking around at people and what's going around me.
Will you be fine... probably... no one care really tell you or predict what can//may/will happen, but in recent years expensive watches have been a target and problem is bad enough that it generated global news, especially in watch circles... So make your own decision on this, but know that the watch theft problem is real and does happen.
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