Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveBold
The problem with anyone calling for a sharp drop is that the market is dynamic.
Recession hits, demand is lower, inflation (already much more controlled) turns to deflation. Deflation plus interest rates at 5%+ in US means Fed can cut aggressively. Fed cutting buoys spirits, causes assets to rebound after a temp drop and all starts over.
Time and time again - so long as you aren’t panic selling at bottoms or FOMO buying at tops, these recession calls aren’t changing much absent a systemic shock (2009).
So, I see watches getting easier to get, the real grails still being elusive and at significant premiums. If prices drop faster it will be due to a sharper macro decline. By the time you have time to buy some watches at those lower prices the moves will already be in place to inflate prices back up again. So for those salivating on the sidelines, if this plays out, be quick…
Oh, and several trillion dollars are on the sidelines so don’t expect too big a bargain either ;-)
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Not really, Rolex were not like the last 3 years even in times of much better economy. We don't need total collapse to return to what it should be.
The last 3 years were a unique situation, and there is absolutely nothing to support that continuing; all trends show the bubble has firmly burst, now it's just a case of who blinks first.
Based on close to 100 years of the watch market it would be more normal for a return to 2015-19 type market, even if the economy is excellent, which it isn't.
A normal economy would suggest a return to normal. Normal is walk in for everything except a few particular models, discounts on many, and grey/used prices below msrp.
Rolex and watch sales of late were driven by demand of people wanting to buy them as they assumed even greater demand would follow. It no longer is.
The hype train has moved on.
I'd also bet that a solid 25-50% of all Rolex demand right now is people who are chasing them, simply because they are still seen as hard to get. But they are becomming more easily available by the day, so the FOMO people will lose all interest when they're actually available.