[Ceriano]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

“But that unwind - it already knocked off the speculative flippers from AD waitlists”. Not true. I literally just sold my submariner for $2000 profit. Stainless steel models trend downward, but there’s still a meaningful spread that has kept flippers incentivized. However, that trajectory is clear that it is heading towards aversion to the mean

“If demand falls sharply overall, rates will follow. One won’t happen without the other” again, not true. The fed does not adjust rate based on secondary watch market demand. If they did, that would be the exact one-to-one correlation that I was talking about which you are refuting. I can paint numerous scenarios, whereby demand decreases with fed funds rate remaining static, or at the very least elevated. The most salient example would be, and is, watches, falling out of “fashion” or “hype” or “investment” for certain cohorts.

No one has a crystal ball, but I think many are too quick to assume that the correlation between economic health, and watch prices (adjusted for inflation) are strongly correlated.

That's a good profit margin for a sub. Did you sell it yourself or sold it to a grey dealer? I thought most grey dealers are now offering the MSRP or a little above assuming the watch is un-worn.