Quote:
Originally Posted by 77T
Agree Brian. And that was just the ship ownership liability.
Ever since the dual incidents of 1980,
public policymakers could have invested in protection. So there is that angle, too, the US accounted for most of the bridge collapses caused by a ship or barge collisions since 1960.
These authors presented great work to explain all the factors for risk management of the inevitable - and it was back in 2018...that is where I found the photo while reading background on how often this occurs.
https://conference-service.com/pianc...l_paper_46.pdf
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What a fantastic read, thank you
I’d encourage others who are following this with interest to read your link.
Almost eerie feeling … but this section stood out to me.
2.4 Geometric Probability (PG)
The geometric probability (PG) is the conditional probability that a vessel will hit a pier given that it has lost control (is aberrant) in the vicinity of the bridge. The method of computing PG is based on a normal distribution curve, with the mean located at the centerline of assumed vessel transit path and a standard deviation equal to the length overall (LOA) of the design vessel under consideration. Note that bridge elements located beyond 3 standard deviations from the centerline of vessel transit path do not influence the geometric probability of collision. The area under the normal distribution curve bounded by the limits of the centerline of vessel contacting either side of the pier is equal to the geometric probability of collision (Figure 10). As can be interpreted from this figure, increasing the distance between piers can significantly reduce the value of PG since the collision zone would be contained within the tail area of the normal distribution curve.