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I believe that's why "buy the seller" makes so much sense. First, only the best dealers will have the required knowledge to answer these questions. In addition, in this small world and at least for premium examples, reputation is everything and a pro-eminent dealer will not risk it to make some $$$. In addition, the best dealers do have the connections that allow them to locate great and rare watches that collectors cannot find by themselves.
Lastly, pick dealers that stand behind their watches, i.e. that do have a no question asked return policy and that we will buy back the watches they sold you with a reasonable bid-ask should you need to sell it later.
Out of this, I am afraid it has to do more with luck than anything else, you can have good experiences and may be make a good deal, but you can equally (or probably more likely) have bad experiences and end up with a watch that is not worth what you paid for it (or even that is worthless if it is a fake).
Totally agree with Nikos' point, and if it is too good to be true...
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