Dealer / dealer transactions

[dh1]

Earlier this year I sold one of my AP RO watches to make room for another in my collection. Since I know what I sold and some identifying characteristics of the watch, I could watch it bounce from dealer to dealer and the prices.

• After getting a bunch of quotes from various dealers, I sold mine for mid-high 40s.

• It was listed for high 50s by the dealer that bought it from me later that afternoon.

• It was sold within hours of being listed to another dealer.

• I don't know if it traded hands again or just wasn't listed immediately, but 15 days later I saw it appear later on one of the dealers that posts on RolexForums in high 70s.

• It stayed for over a month getting some price drops into the low 70s. The thread was eventually updated as sold.

• A few days later, it appeared on another well-known dealer listed in the low 70s.

I'm not sure what the lesson is here, and obviously this is just a single data point, but it's interesting to see that no actual "end collectors" are in this chain... just speculative trading between dealers.

[77T]

Interesting.

Although not an AP, my Platona that was stolen in 2017 made several dealer to dealer flips before being seized by Rolex UK last year.

I’m guessing it moved at wholesale value until the final buyer paid market retail.


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[HMHM]

I think it’s pretty much a sneak peek into the actual state of the market though. Doubt there’s much transaction going to end consumers at these insane prices. But hey, grey dealers have to make believe right? Or else who’s gonna believe the act they are putting up?
Also all these grey dealers are pretty much living the life - fine dining and fast cars. Is money that easy to earn?

[VogelPhoenix]

As an economic model I find this baffling, but maybe that's the reason I'm not in sales.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

As an economic model I find this baffling, but maybe that's the reason I'm not in sales.

What, you don’t think musical chairs is a good business model?!?

To OP, I can only assume your ownership provenance drove crazy value once everyone realized who had owned the watch!!!!

[Reign]

It’s really baffling - these dealers are buying on working capital loans so there’s I/R drag on their books. As rates rise and carrying costs increase, I expect more dealers to capitulate more easily on pricing for the sake of moving a piece otherwise the internet will eat into margins.

Just a theory though and maybe these guys have a sound business model…

[NTCP8]

Business model? Most of these dealers didn't even finish high school, don't think the term 'business model' is in their vocabulary... They are good in creating a hype with social media, that's it. This will not last...

I don't understand who pays X amount above retail for a watch. Doesn't matter if you can afford it, doesn't make sense to pay 100k for a steel watch that retails at 20k.

The other day I was sitting in a bar and the table next to me were bragging about their watches (RG DD, YG Daytona, Aquanaut). They were bragging how much they paid for it and all maxed out their credit cards. One amazing character said he is leaving HK and is not planning to pay his credit card off. These highly intellectual individuals were English teachers and a waiters... This is just one example, but I'm convinced people are getting in debt because of this, when have seen this before hmmmm

[Commandopat]

Originally Posted by NTCP8

Business model? Most of these dealers didn't even finish high school, don't think the term 'business model' is in their vocabulary...

Probably one of the most elitist comments I’ve read on here in a while and also completely unsubstantiated - are you saying only high school, dare I say college graduates, can have good business models?

[Moondoggy]

What could possibly go wrong.....you serious.

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by Commandopat

Probably one of the most elitist comments I’ve read on here in a while and also completely unsubstantiated - are you saying only high school, dare I say college graduates, can have good business models?

agree, I know plenty of people with college degrees but are not educated.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by 77T

Interesting.

Although not an AP, my Platona that was stolen in 2017 made several dealer to dealer flips before being seized by Rolex UK last year.

I’m guessing it moved at wholesale value until the final buyer paid market retail.


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Seized by Rolex UK ?!

[Flying Doctor]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Seized by Rolex UK ?!

Oh yes - anything that is stolen that Rolex get their hands on (usually via it being returned for repairs or a service) and they seize it. They are actually pretty tough on this one!

Not as bad though as they used to be if they ever received a counterfeit watch. They used to just send it back to you, after they had applied some 'modifications' using a hammer to it.......

FD.

[77T]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Seized by Rolex UK ?!

Yes - it was a great bit of news and most appreciated. A long story that shouldn’t be discussed here to avoid thread-jacking.

See: https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=573127

Post 460 is where the Platona recovery is mentioned.

My only point is that I agree with OP that dealers do move watches via other means than a retail sale to a customer. Usually they move at a smaller margin via wholesale prices.


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[17noir]

Originally Posted by NTCP8

Business model? Most of these dealers didn't even finish high school, don't think the term 'business model' is in their vocabulary... They are good in creating a hype with social media, that's it. This will not last...

I don't understand who pays X amount above retail for a watch. Doesn't matter if you can afford it, doesn't make sense to pay 100k for a steel watch that retails at 20k.

The other day I was sitting in a bar and the table next to me were bragging about their watches (RG DD, YG Daytona, Aquanaut). They were bragging how much they paid for it and all maxed out their credit cards. One amazing character said he is leaving HK and is not planning to pay his credit card off. These highly intellectual individuals were English teachers and a waiters... This is just one example, but I'm convinced people are getting in debt because of this, when have seen this before hmmmm

For those who think your comment about dealers not having high school diploma - you may be right at least in the local HK market. I'm not judging their level of education, but you are right about them just hyping up the market. Bullying anyone who doesn't agree with "prices will only go up" mentality. Watches they once deemed very lame, and only people from mainland China will wear - now is the most beautiful watch once prices skyrocketed. Might as well wear a stack of cash on the wrist.

For the record, I do have a small collection of in demand pieces, but I also think this market is ridiculous, and heavily manipulated. Don't go in debt to show off or to hope for a financial gain. That's what dealers want you to think, how else do they keep making a profit.

[dh1]

Originally Posted by dh1

Earlier this year I sold one of my AP RO watches to make room for another in my collection. Since I know what I sold and some identifying characteristics of the watch, I could watch it bounce from dealer to dealer and the prices.

• After getting a bunch of quotes from various dealers, I sold mine for mid-high 40s.

• It was listed for high 50s by the dealer that bought it from me later that afternoon.

• It was sold within hours of being listed to another dealer.

• I don't know if it traded hands again or just wasn't listed immediately, but 15 days later I saw it appear later on one of the dealers that posts on RolexForums in high 70s.

• It stayed for over a month getting some price drops into the low 70s. The thread was eventually updated as sold.

• A few days later, it appeared on another well-known dealer listed in the low 70s.

I noticed that Takuya still has this watch listed for $72,325 since I posted this on April 3rd, 2022. It reminded me of this post...

Originally Posted by dh1

I'm not sure what the lesson is here, and obviously this is just a single data point, but it's interesting to see that no actual "end collectors" are in this chain... just speculative trading between dealers.

[1st amg]

What a crazy mark up this watch took after you received the funds.

[Vince_76]

Thanks for sharing. It’s dealer hot potato. There’s very little actual liquidity in the market

[fsprow]

One thing some don’t recognize is that many watch resellers have other interests to broaden their exposure to individual markets. One I know well has real estate, cattle and minerals ownership. Interesting that some folks on this site feel, maybe hope, that resellers will go out of business in a price slump. Not likely for the solid ones - they know luxury goods markets go up and down over time and are prepared for it.

[CactusTreeFiddy]

That all ceramic, orange minute hand ROO is a great example of this, blatantly jumping between resellers while sitting at 32k

No way in hell an end-buyer will pay that much for it

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by CactusTreeFiddy

That all ceramic, orange minute hand ROO is a great example of this, blatantly jumping between resellers while sitting at 32k

No way in hell an end-buyer will pay that much for it

The ceramic diver? At $32k that's the bargain of the century compared to a $72k 15300ST.

$32k isn't that far off from what I would be willing to pay, if I wasn't already spending all my money on new watches. If AP ever brings out a new one, it will be more than $32k for sure.

[CactusTreeFiddy]

Well considering how long the watch has just sat there, there's clearly no demand for it, at least at that price

the 15300st is clearly a ridiculous price, pointless to benchmark anything against it