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3 March 2020, 10:37 PM | #121 | |
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3 March 2020, 10:46 PM | #122 | ||
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There’s a lot of technical jargon here and that’s great for seasoned pros, but just like watches, there are many different types of investors. There are many who are experienced (the watch connoisseurs if you will) and many who are not (guys like me). There’s one thing I’ve learned after being in invested the markets for the last 31 years and that is, they go up and they go down and no one know precisely where the top or the bottom occurs. In between, there’s ups and downs and times like these require patience. |
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3 March 2020, 10:59 PM | #123 | |
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I understand that but most investors here would need some professional guidance to deploy a straddle. As you know not everyone has the ability to trade options on their account and for good reason. My issue with your post yesterday was not with the information itself but rather the manner in which you chose to convey it.
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3 March 2020, 11:14 PM | #124 | |
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3 March 2020, 11:20 PM | #125 |
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Can we assume without giving advice your general expectation is continued volatility without a sustained move up or down?
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3 March 2020, 11:28 PM | #126 |
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I think that over near and midterm there is a lot more potential negative headline risk then positive. I think valuations had fully built in every optimistic assumption and the markets are now held hostage to emotion. All considered I have a heavy negative bias. Particularly towards bank names given the likelihood central banks will intervene to keep rates low squeezing margins.
Against that backdrop great time to cherry pick names that get oversold that you want to own as long term core holdings. Given that in high vol periods such as this names all tend to trade in tandem based on swings use the moves to upgrade portfolio but simultaneously selling names you are skeptical of and buying long term holds. In that way you are largely market neutral but credit specific improved. |
3 March 2020, 11:49 PM | #127 |
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I don't mind reading others' opinions but I suggest that everyone should have a qualified financial advisor whom you trust. Find a good one with a track record. I'll stick my neck out and say that they know more than we do. My guy has done well for me and even though my financial setup in retirement often gets criticized, I have done well and am adequately funded.
I love the comments I get like "If you had bought xyz you would have twice as much." |
3 March 2020, 11:50 PM | #128 |
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Having followed your and Tom’s back and forth across multiple thread no less and chanting “fight! Fight! Fight!” under my breath, I will say this. Sometimes directly or indirectly showcasing how smart or knowledgeable you think you are tends to bring out the devil’s advocate in others. I’ve learned that humility in all things tends to win friends and influence people rather than actually being right.
Bryant/John, it only takes a cursory read of your post history to see that you may not intend to brag about your collection or knowledge, but I can say truthfully that it does come across that way sometimes regardless of your intentions. Anyway, since there is no more drama here I will slink away back to the Patek forums - Jin out |
4 March 2020, 12:03 AM | #129 | |
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Thanks. |
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4 March 2020, 12:04 AM | #130 |
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watching these futures swing is giving me whiplash.
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4 March 2020, 12:04 AM | #131 |
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I am one of those (inexperienced) and would love to know what a straddle is and how to deploy it.
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4 March 2020, 12:12 AM | #132 | |
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Way too advanced for me. I am not looking to get too technical either. I am not looking to get rich in the markets. Just smart long term investing. I invest with my FA. At this point it is my goals and he implements. I love learning about this. But tons of people think they can game the system. Tons of people go broke trying. If I can eek out a meager 5-6 points consistently over the years, I will be very happy.
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If happiness is a state of mind, why look anywhere else for it? IG: gsmotorclub IG: thesawcollection (Both mostly just car stuff) |
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4 March 2020, 12:15 AM | #133 | |
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Here is a very basic summary. Total risk is the cost of the option contracts if they expire out of the money. The key is pricing and would strongly suggest a professional advise in its usage. These strategies are hardly "gaming" the system but instead hedging risk. |
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4 March 2020, 12:24 AM | #134 |
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Algos reacting to news, wait for after 10 to get a sense of the trade
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4 March 2020, 12:25 AM | #135 | |
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Talking Stocks 2.0
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I agree with Seth’s point above on your post. Any complex tactical position requires a strong set of quantitative data to help the analyst choose the strength of each side in a straddle. Then you really need a well formed algorithm that is repeatedly tested many times each day to confirm its chi-squared test (and variants) for fitness. If you are a tactical investor, you also need very high confidence in your transaction processing house. Just ask those RobinHood speculators how that worked out yesterday... Last thing - even if you’re a savant and can do it all in your head like John Nash - someone else’s machine will take the same raw data and hit the same answer as you. Now it’s the guy who gets the trade recorded first that wins the race. Big houses spend millions per year to have high-speed, zero latency access to the trading servers. Bottom line, we civilians are pretty much slow on the trigger compared to our brokerage houses that can actually use our trades to front-run our tactics. I like trading for the sport of it but don’t play at the tactical level - better for me to strive for balance and not get overweighted into sectors that have become overheated. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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4 March 2020, 12:30 AM | #136 |
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Algorithmic trading does not factor news. It is entirely machine driven based on factors such as volume, price, and timing. It is efficiency and momentum based. It will react to human intervention to news events however.
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4 March 2020, 12:32 AM | #137 | |
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An advisor would have to guarantee to me in writing that he could beat the total return I get on my self-advised lazy portfolio every year for the next 30 years. I don't see that happening, and I'm not willing to siphon off 1% or more of my portfolio to fund my advisors retirement. I'm happier and wealthier since I dumped my advisor. |
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4 March 2020, 12:51 AM | #138 |
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I only check in to TRF to consult strangers for medical advice.
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4 March 2020, 12:52 AM | #139 | |
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Can your lazy portfolio guarantee the same thing? I am not saying you are wrong. Not by a long shot. But I have done a good amount of research on this. And a lazy portfolio will not be balanced the way a managed portfolio will be. So far, I have a very reasonable rate of return. Even with the most recent hits. Yes, I pay my fees. But I get a service for that, and again, so far I am satisfied with this service. I wonder if I should move over to a simply low fee fund. Tony Robbins certainly says I should. In a challenging time like this, I am grateful for my guy. Watching trends and making changes based on my goals and the plan that we set up. He has access to incredible amount of data and tools that I could not dream of. Hard to say what is right. My opinion anyway. I suppose it depends largely on the person involved and their own habits and comfort levels.
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If happiness is a state of mind, why look anywhere else for it? IG: gsmotorclub IG: thesawcollection (Both mostly just car stuff) |
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4 March 2020, 12:53 AM | #140 |
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smart. only way to do it.
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If happiness is a state of mind, why look anywhere else for it? IG: gsmotorclub IG: thesawcollection (Both mostly just car stuff) |
4 March 2020, 01:00 AM | #141 | |
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I rebalence one annually based on my investment policy statement, and am able to completely tune out news such as the last two weeks as I have an asset allocation that I can sleep at night with. I still own some single stocks in a taxable account that my previous advisor purchased for me, over weighting me in tech slightly, but I've been tax loss harvesting or selling and taking minimal long term cap gains on those to completely eliminate single stocks from my portfolio. A book I highly recommend: https://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Gu.../dp/0470067365 |
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4 March 2020, 01:03 AM | #142 | |
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Mistake in my opinion as this will do nothing except give a false sense of security Taking more off today, well that was a short window. Building cash Risk happens fast
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4 March 2020, 01:38 AM | #143 |
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I agree, there's not much ammo left in the Fed's tank, why are they pulling the trigger on this so soon?
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4 March 2020, 01:45 AM | #144 | |
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Bottomline is that there is little left when the next reason to lower occurs.
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4 March 2020, 02:27 AM | #145 | |
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I'm confused about the jig saw effect happening right now- I suppose it's because people are "buying the dip." A lot of this, however, feels like FOMO to me, especially yesterday's insane spike. Is the pricing on stocks right now baking in the potentially bad earnings that stocks could be reporting later this year for Q1 and Q2? Or was that taken into account of last week with the correction? Sorry I am clearly not as savvy a technical trader as you are (not sure if my questions are even relevant to what you're talking about...), but I do appreciate your daily insights/commentary- I've been following this thread religiously since it was started as well as the older investment thread. I'm on the younger side (early 30's) and have a lot of interest in more active portfolio management strategy. I've dabbled in stocks since I was about 21 or so and while I've done well in my time in the markets (rode a lot of tech/IT hype trains like Apple, Tesla, AMD, Nvidia) I realize a few things now: a. I was investing extremely recklessly by dedicating a significant portion of my portfolio on one or two companies (sometimes >80% of the portfolio). Granted it was not a ton of money and it would have been okay if I lost it all... b. I got extremely lucky- I never got burned by any of my "picks." b. The time period in which I was investing was perhaps one of the most prosperous periods ever to be "in" the stock market (especially in tech), and therefore I am probably biased in one way or another because of it. I sold all my non-bond positions last Monday, and now have abut 20% bonds, 30% stocks (fortunately bought a little before the rise yesterady), and now have ~50% of my portfolio in cash "waiting in the wings" for any opportunities. I read Motley fool, Schwab insights, WSJ, NYT, and a little bit of reddit. I also aggressively follow news relating to a pretty short list of companies- the vast majority of these are blue chip stocks, however. What are some things that I can do to better myself as an investor and teach myself about portfolio management and maybe even options trading? Or ways that I can expand my horizon beyond large cap blue chip companies. |
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4 March 2020, 04:06 AM | #146 | |
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You have time on your side, there are many great resources out there, books, websites etc., to learn. Depending on who your broker is, they have resources. I use Schwab because I like their trading tools and research.
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4 March 2020, 04:25 AM | #147 |
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The fact that the market still tanked today, even after a massive fed drop in interest rates, is probably the most worrisome indicator on the direction of the market.
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4 March 2020, 04:29 AM | #148 | |
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We are now worse off
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4 March 2020, 04:46 AM | #149 |
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Yes the problem is that on the one hand we are told by policy makers and federal agencies not to worry, it's all under control. On the other hand, let's do an emergency rate cut not employed since 2008. While I understand that's intended to have a broad stabilizing effect on the economy, it's more narrow effect on the markets today probably isn't what was anticipated.
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4 March 2020, 04:49 AM | #150 | |
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I'm not liking this chart at all
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