It's happening....

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by rolexonlywatch

Everything crashed: crypto, Wall Street, and housing soon. What make you think rolex will sustain?

I don’t think you and I have the same definition of a stock market crash. This is a bear market, not a crash. As you pointed out, the housing market hasn’t crashed.

The Rolex market has a bottom. For example, the Submariner Date 41 I see for sale get snagged right away in the $14K - $14.5K range. OCwatchguy posted two in the past week, and they were both sold right away. So I don’t think Patrick will sell the next one at $14K. FOMO is slowly settling in.

[mdubya]

Originally Posted by askdanny

I don’t think you and I have the same definition of a stock market crash. This is a bear market, not a crash. As you pointed out, the housing market hasn’t crashed.

The Rolex market has a bottom. For example, the Submariner Date 41 I see for sale get snagged right away in the $14K - $14.5K range. OCwatchguy posted two in the past week, and they were both sold right away. So I don’t think Patrick will sell the next one at $14K. FOMO is slowly settling in.

FOMO slowly setting in, in this market? Completely delusional.

[Meltingicecube]

Originally Posted by amh

Ha, so true



Rolex has a healthy profit even at MSRP. So many knobs for them to turn:
1) While watches still selling at MSRP, do nothing
2) Raise prices a little every once in a while
3) Reduce their marketing budget
4) Reduce their 'charity' budget
5) Cut some model lines

Rolex has been through two World Wars. No idea if they'll make it through the next one, but a mere 2008-style event would not be a big deal.

Crypto could completely disappear and no one would notice. Crypto is essentially worthless, it was always a merely speculative outlet (Blockchain itself is another matter, but it's technology rather than currency.) Housing may see a much needed dip but everyone needs a place to live and while populations increase we'll need more houses. Stocks have historically bounced back - also through past recessions, depressions and World Wars.

Maybe this time it will be different. We're overdue for a reset on many fronts, unfortunately. Buckle up.

Rolex is not directly affected by secondary market prices! The ADs must write a check every month and pay in full for every watch Rolex sends, doesn't matter if it sells straight away or sits on display for months! The current climate is good, at least in the short term for the brand but I see very little financial benefit for Rolex, expect the ability to occasionally raise MSRPs!

ADs are the ones who are making a killing by selling worthless jewellery at 500% mark-up! But if secondary prices go down, ADs get hurt badly and not Rolex!

[smg8]

Originally Posted by askdanny

I don’t think you and I have the same definition of a stock market crash. This is a bear market, not a crash. As you pointed out, the housing market hasn’t crashed.

The Rolex market has a bottom. For example, the Submariner Date 41 I see for sale get snagged right away in the $14K - $14.5K range. OCwatchguy posted two in the past week, and they were both sold right away. So I don’t think Patrick will sell the next one at $14K. FOMO is slowly settling in.

I read about the Daytona having a bottom at $40k because one got sold at that price a couple of weeks back.

Yet here we are today seeing them listed at $30k.....

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

Rolex is not directly affected my secondary market prices! The ADs must write a check every month and pay in full for every watch Rolex sends, doesn't matter if it sells straight away or sits on display for months! The current climate is good, at least in the short term for the brand but I see very little financial benefit for Rolex, expect the ability to occasionally raise MSRPs!

ADs are the ones who are making a killing by selling worthless jewellery at 500% mark-up! But if secondary prices go down, ADs get hurt badly and not Rolex!

THIS ^^

Except the AD's then backdoor dump as their profits exceed loses if they dump to grey at a substantially discounted price, and TRF buy at 30% off MSRP instead of 300% over. AD's still win as their profits exceed losses....and they maintain Rolex rights by doing this....

[ResidencyEvil]

Originally Posted by askdanny

I don’t think you and I have the same definition of a stock market crash. This is a bear market, not a crash. As you pointed out, the housing market hasn’t crashed.

The Rolex market has a bottom. For example, the Submariner Date 41 I see for sale get snagged right away in the $14K - $14.5K range. OCwatchguy posted two in the past week, and they were both sold right away. So I don’t think Patrick will sell the next one at $14K. FOMO is slowly settling in.

Assuming, of course, that those were real sales.

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

Pretty much. Rubbing a dealer’s face in a downturned market isn’t going to to feel as good as you may think. The guy in the Rolex boutique at the mall couldn’t give a sh*t about getting you a GMT over the last 5 years, and won’t give two sh*ts about getting you one over the next 5 either.

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[Jimbo]

Originally Posted by ResidencyEvil

Assuming, of course, that those were real sales.

I will give OCRolexguy the benefit of the doubt.

That being said, a sale here and there doesn't mean everything.

There seems to be enough evidence from secondary dealers directly that prices have come down and are continuing to come down.

Like people experience with oil and gas prices, increases are almost instantaneous. Decreases take much longer to implement since that has to be done carefully.

My guess is that grey market sellers are trying to be very cautious and looking for people to take the "bait" so to speak. They don't want to be the first to start a rapid devaluation.

[J-rob]

Who's got the daily moda price update? haha

[Jimbo]

Originally Posted by PO 2500D

Not sure any of that has anything to do with the point I was making.

It wasn't meant directly as a rebuttal to your comment. I just notice people were looking at financial reports to justify their argument for or against the price of watches dropping.

Financial reports don't show that dynamic, especially in real time. That's my only observation.

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by J-rob

Who's got the daily moda price update? haha

Ha! This is totally off topic (what was the topic of this thread again?), but in a weird train wreck kind of way I enjoy reading the opinions (as long as it’s civil and no personal attacks) in this forum, even if they are ridiculous.

With the normal stress I get to deal with in life and work, it’s a luxury to have the time to “debate” things related to shiny time telling devices people wear on their wrists.

[rolexonlywatch]

It’s fun to see price dropping every few days from grey’s websites.


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[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by askdanny

The Rolex market has a bottom. For example, the Submariner Date 41 I see for sale get snagged right away in the $14K - $14.5K range. OCwatchguy posted two in the past week, and they were both sold right away. So I don’t think Patrick will sell the next one at $14K. FOMO is slowly settling in.

Everybody has a different sensibility and risk appetit. So a few watches may find a customer.

What will matter is the volume.

When I was speaking with SAs at different ADs, they were all saying the same: almost all the requests were from people with no desire to own a watch but to make money with it.

If there is almost no more money to make...

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

Ha! This is totally off topic (what was the topic of this thread again?), but in a weird train wreck kind of way I enjoy reading the opinions (as long as it’s civil and no personal attacks) in this forum, even if they are ridiculous.

With the normal stress I get to deal with in life and work, it’s a luxury to have the time to “debate” things related to shiny time telling devices people wear on their wrists.

I couldn’t agree more with your sentiments. It’s interesting to see that wide variety of views expressed. Some here sell watches for a living and are in the midst of a heavy correction and I feel for them as I don’t enjoy seeing people struggle. Others have been shut out of the market due to massive price hikes over the last couple of years and I could include myself in this group loosely. I hope when everything is said and done, we get price stability. IMO that leads to equity (fairness) for buyer and seller.

[malba2366]

Originally Posted by askdanny

I don’t think you and I have the same definition of a stock market crash. This is a bear market, not a crash. As you pointed out, the housing market hasn’t crashed.

The Rolex market has a bottom. For example, the Submariner Date 41 I see for sale get snagged right away in the $14K - $14.5K range. OCwatchguy posted two in the past week, and they were both sold right away. So I don’t think Patrick will sell the next one at $14K. FOMO is slowly settling in.

Yeah the bottom is probably around 5-10% below MSRP for most BNIB grey Rolexes (excluding Daytonas and maybe GMT Masters). This is the first or second leg down, and there are some buyers at the current levels, when they evaporate the next leg down and so on. When there are sport watches in the display cases of the local Rolex AD, or they are available with a few month wait, then the market will hit the hard bottom.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by malba2366

Yeah the bottom is probably around 5-10% below MSRP for most BNIB grey Rolexes (excluding Daytonas and maybe GMT Masters). This is the first or second leg down, and there are some buyers at the current levels, when they evaporate the next leg down and so on. When there are sport watches in the display cases of the local Rolex AD, or they are available with a few month wait, then the market will hit the hard bottom.

5-10% BELOW MSRP? Nah, the global demand is way too strong to meet current supply levels. Again, I hope my reply here doesn’t age well, but there is no way we’ll see grey prices be at MSRP or lower. With Instagram flexing, YouTube videos, watch blogs—Rolex is the most reputable brand in the world, vertically integrated and operating out of a tiny country with no room to grow.

Maybe if China stays closed forever…

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by askdanny

5-10% BELOW MSRP? Nah, the global demand is way too strong to meet current supply levels. Again, I hope my reply here doesn’t age well, but there is no way we’ll see grey prices be at MSRP or lower. With Instagram flexing, YouTube videos, watch blogs—Rolex is the most reputable brand in the world, vertically integrated and operating out of a tiny country with no room to grow.

Maybe if China stays closed forever…

Lol global demand has evaporated overnight.

[rolexonlywatch]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Lol global demand has evaporated overnight.

Not sure about global demand but crypto and Wall Street tanked hard. Hence, people don’t have free money to buy.


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[Meltingicecube]

Originally Posted by askdanny

5-10% BELOW MSRP? Nah, the global demand is way too strong to meet current supply levels. Again, I hope my reply here doesn’t age well, but there is no way we’ll see grey prices be at MSRP or lower. With Instagram flexing, YouTube videos, watch blogs—Rolex is the most reputable brand in the world, vertically integrated and operating out of a tiny country with no room to grow.

Maybe if China stays closed forever…

You know China basically reopened on June 1st right? I'm surprised you didn't blame the tax season

[Epanerai12]

Some mo' Moda today:

2022 Unworn Pepsi Oyster 21.9k not sold

2021 Mint BLNR Jubilee 18.75k not sold.

2022 Unworn SS Skydellwer 23.5k not sold.

June 22 dated unworn No date 13.2k not sold.

June 22 dated unworn YG Day Date Champange 41.5k not sold

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by rolexonlywatch

Not sure about global demand but crypto and Wall Street tanked hard. Hence, people don’t have free money to buy.


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I can assure you that anyone invested in the financial markets (ie essentially all watch buyers), rolex is the last thing you want to put your money towards. The harder the market falls, the worst this will get. And I am not just referring to buying grey, people will pass on everything from AD perhaps sans SS daytona

[bonovox]

Time will tell...

[amh]

Originally Posted by askdanny

5-10% BELOW MSRP? Nah, the global demand is way too strong to meet current supply levels. Again, I hope my reply here doesn’t age well, but there is no way we’ll see grey prices be at MSRP or lower. With Instagram flexing, YouTube videos, watch blogs—Rolex is the most reputable brand in the world, vertically integrated and operating out of a tiny country with no room to grow.

Maybe if China stays closed forever…

Today, sure.

But iwhen a crash/recession/depression happens and all the insta & YT stars stop buying clothes, traveling and posting the watch fever will die down.

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

Some mo' Moda today:

2022 Unworn Pepsi Oyster 21.9k not sold

2021 Mint BLNR Jubilee 18.75k not sold.

2022 Unworn SS Skydellwer 23.5k not sold.

June 22 dated unworn No date 13.2k not sold.

June 22 dated unworn YG Day Date Champange 41.5k not sold

I cant recall who.....But a few weeks ago I said 12-36 months or 24-36 months and someone made a rude comment (not you), as if to say there is no chance the market will depress.... (Could've been another thread)...


They were right, I was wrong....Its way faster than i thought/predicted!!!!

But I still say 12-36 and AD's cases are normal and Grey is 10-30% under MSRP...


Thoughts Mr Froman???

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

Some mo' Moda today:

2022 Unworn Pepsi Oyster 21.9k not sold

2021 Mint BLNR Jubilee 18.75k not sold.

2022 Unworn SS Skydellwer 23.5k not sold.

June 22 dated unworn No date 13.2k not sold.

June 22 dated unworn YG Day Date Champange 41.5k not sold

Kind of interesting that this is a Big deal?

SS pieces not selling for 120% over and 87.5% over?

This tells us how twisted the psychology became.....

These are WAYYYYYY over priced, its not like 10%-15% without tax....


Even 15k is HIGH!!!! thats 50% over retail!!! 50%!!!!! That's ALOT!!!!!!

[eijiboy]

Look at this auction. Its the new dd with green lacquer dial. Its only topping at 77k and no more bids. This used to be sold lately for more than 100k




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[pursang_]

Baguette Platona sold for 142k on Moda.

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Look at this auction. Its the new dd with green lacquer dial. Its only topping at 77k and no more bids. This used to be sold lately for more than 100k




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Amazing.....Its a basic YG DD 40...Even Rolex isn't asking extra for that dial....Amazing that the color dial even gets that much...Do we think a gold or silver dial is 40k less!!!!!!!! 40K!!!!! Thats another DD 40!!! or 4 more Stainless....on top of the DD40.

And...in 5 years no one gives a %$&%^ because there is another 5 green dials coming......

I'm in a mood....LOL

[rolexonlywatch]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Look at this auction. Its the new dd with green lacquer dial. Its only topping at 77k and no more bids. This used to be sold lately for more than 100k




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That much more premium just for a green dial!? That reminds me of people trading Pokémon cards lol.


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[eijiboy]

Same thing with OP. its all about the color. But the price on these dd will go down even more sooner or later. DD and DJ will be the one reaching msrp especially TT.

Originally Posted by rolexonlywatch

That much more premium just for a green dial!? That reminds me of people trading Pokémon cards lol.


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