Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by RanHong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa4wTS5YQXw

interesting video.
according to this guy, prices are being artificially inflated in wholesale watch groups.

This guys a genius!


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[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by psm11

Dealers are pumping the price because they can’t move them.

Uh. Well. I’m no economist but if they can’t move the product, how are they ‘pumping the price’ and how will that help them move the product? Seems like if you can’t sell a K-Car for $9800, uh, raising the price to $18k won’t help. Or a VTNR, for that matter.


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[psm11]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Uh. Well. I’m no economist but if they can’t move the product, how are they ‘pumping the price’ and how will that help them move the product? Seems like if you can’t sell a K-Car for $9800, uh, raising the price to $18k won’t help. Or a VTNR, for that matter.


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Perceived value. Make it look like watches are on the rise again/are good “investments” and if a buyer doesn’t act now tomorrow will be too late and the price will be sky high.

[T3rmina1]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Uh. Well. I’m no economist but if they can’t move the product, how are they ‘pumping the price’ and how will that help them move the product? Seems like if you can’t sell a K-Car for $9800, uh, raising the price to $18k won’t help. Or a VTNR, for that matter.


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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump

[Vince_76]

BNIB complete set 5712 - $102k at auction

[ExplorerI]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

BNIB complete set 5712 - $102k at auction

That’s actually bounced some. There were a couple posted in the 80-90k range. And One that was used was at $73k late last year. Didn’t last long

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

That’s actually bounced some. There were a couple posted in the 80-90k range. And One that was used was at $73k late last year. Didn’t last long

This is the lowest I’ve seen a fresh, true new 5712 go for. I’ve seen the cheaper ones but they’re not fullset, used, etc.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by T3rmina1

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump

Ahh pump dump with watches. Funny. Relies on misinformation about company, securities etc. Hard to misinform about an explorer 1. It is what it appears to be.


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[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by psm11

Perceived value. Make it look like watches are on the rise again/are good “investments” and if a buyer doesn’t act now tomorrow will be too late and the price will be sky high.

Yeah I understand the concept but I don’t see that happening in a hard commodities market like watches with a handful of greys alone, or absent some real broad conspiracy among greys. Which isn’t happening. It’s like pump and dump in the used furniture business. Good luck.


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Yeah I understand the concept but I don’t see that happening in a hard commodities market like watches with a handful of greys alone, or absent some real broad conspiracy among greys. Which isn’t happening. It’s like pump and dump in the used furniture business. Good luck.


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Not really. In fact, the watch market is ripe for manipulation. Why?

1. It is a speculative asset (a necessary condition for there to be a pump and dump. Not the case with most furniture). This is quite a recent phenomena among the broader watch market.

2. The secondary watch market is largely consolidated among several big players. Not only that, the industry is known for inter-party transactions. I’ve seen this first hand and on moda.

3. There is no regulation for collusion or price fixing, unlike in other industries. There is literally no deterrent from inflating prices.

[T3rmina1]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Ahh pump dump with watches. Funny. Relies on misinformation about company, securities etc. Hard to misinform about an explorer 1. It is what it appears to be.


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I'm a CFA charterholder. I know a little bit about assets. All sorts of things can have their price manipulated, why not watches?

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...-cash-mashberg
https://marketbusinessnews.com/marke...uyers/267855/?
https://www.entrepreneur.com/leaders...for-the/418366

And yes, activity seems weird. Pieces get picked up at higher prices recently while well known dealers have fine examples sitting on this forum for months on end at lower prices

So. You tell me, what is the value of an explorer?

[ExplorerI]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Ahh pump dump with watches. Funny. Relies on misinformation about company, securities etc. Hard to misinform about an explorer 1. It is what it appears to be.


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You don’t have to misinform on the physical qualities of the explorer I just the perceived value and more importantly future value. Not that hard to do if you have several parties in on it “buying” each others stuff at high prices on a very public forum with no way to actually check to see if the trades took place.

[omar10213245]

anybody ever watch Juan AKA OpusnTime on Youtube? His latest video is pretty interesting, to say the least.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa4wTS5YQXw

[T3rmina1]

In any case, I'd love to see some volume data cos we mainly have price from watchcharts and subdial

[Mathematoxic]

Can try watchcollecting dot com… it consists of live auction, ended auction with sold price. However do note there is a 6% surcharge(they wrote based on which country I am located at) on transacted price. Not sure if it’s the same for other countries.

[omar10213245]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Can try watchcollecting dot com… it consists of live auction, ended auction with sold price. However do note there is a 6% surcharge(they wrote based on which country I am located at) on transacted price. Not sure if it’s the same for other countries.

Is that 6% fee for ALL buyers? Or only buyers located in the US?

[psm11]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Yeah I understand the concept but I don’t see that happening in a hard commodities market like watches with a handful of greys alone, or absent some real broad conspiracy among greys. Which isn’t happening. It’s like pump and dump in the used furniture business. Good luck.


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On the other hand gggmt, i have it on good authority that we will hit bottom this weekend around 8a PST. What r your sources saying?

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by omar10213245

Is that 6% fee for ALL buyers? Or only buyers located in the US?

I’m located in Singapore. And it says 6% tax with a minimum of £500

[train-time]

Originally Posted by omar10213245

Is that 6% fee for ALL buyers? Or only buyers located in the US?

Might include local sales tax as well. Looks like the 6% is how they make their money as the seller appears to pay nothing and gets 100% of the sell price.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by omar10213245

anybody ever watch Juan AKA OpusnTime on Youtube? His latest video is pretty interesting, to say the least.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa4wTS5YQXw

Interesting but good lord... Brevity is certainly not his friend

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Originally Posted by messikens

Interesting but good lord... Brevity is certainly not his friend

Yeah, I watched a few of his videos and stopped altogether. He usually has one or two points and keeps on rehashing them over a 15-20 minute video!! I mean, how many times can you say “the watch market is dead in the pool?”

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by ThatOtherGuy7

Yeah, I watched a few of his videos and stopped altogether. He usually has one or two points and keeps on rehashing them over a 15-20 minute video!! I mean, how many times can you say “the watch market is dead in the pool?”

Unbelievable! LoL!

But it’s pretty fun watching him poke the secondary market prices haha

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by psm11

On the other hand gggmt, i have it on good authority that we will hit bottom this weekend around 8a PST. What r your sources saying?

That’s my guy! I’m hearing exactly the same thing!


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[buknoy]

Originally Posted by psm11

$41k (panda version) box but no papers. If the deal makes will be trading Rolex gmt plus cash. Given the uncertainly of the market and no papers I am def going to negotiate down. I think $38k is fair.

He just lowered the price to 36.5


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by buknoy

He just lowered the price to 36.5


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And it’s still not selling lol!! And people still wonder if prices are inflated.

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by buknoy

He just lowered the price to 36.5


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I saw he lowered to $37.5 and SOLD.

[swaini3]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

I saw he lowered to $37.5 and SOLD.

I really doubt this transaction is real. I think everyone knows you can get a full set for lower.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by swaini3

I really doubt this transaction is real. I think everyone knows you can get a full set for lower.

There’s been a concerted effort to pump up pricing there. You see it with multiple pieces being relisted.

Not sure if this is a fraudulent sale but may be (particularly if comparable, recent, trades were lower… I haven’t been tracking)

[swaini3]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

There’s been a concerted effort to pump up pricing there. You see it with multiple pieces being relisted.

Not sure if this is a fraudulent sale but may be (particularly if comparable, recent, trades were lower… I haven’t been tracking)

I kind of follow their prices, some are good deals to be honest but I will have to say that the whole world knows daytona prices have corrected and 37.5k for a watch only panda is hard to believe. I feel sorry for the buyer if its true. If Im not mistaken, I recently saw there a box n papers panda sell for 27-28k.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Can try watchcollecting dot com… it consists of live auction, ended auction with sold price. However do note there is a 6% surcharge(they wrote based on which country I am located at) on transacted price. Not sure if it’s the same for other countries.

Alternative is Loupethis.com, with a 10% buyers premium. Absent outright fraud, that should give a decent idea where the current market is.