New white speedy pro

[DoricSpiker]

Originally Posted by yetione

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzlQCiWzV1U&t=12s

Here's a pretty solid look behind the curtain at the market, and what the guys in the executive suites who pull the levers are thinking about. Whole video is worth watching but Rolex and Omega come in around 3:53. In a nutshell though, Omega will be doing things that help them increase their average price/unit sold. They have this massively popular hero product which, if they can drive full retail price sales, will help them significantly in doing that. Part of that though is to be very careful so as not to oversupply the market.

Send me a Xmas present if I am correct!

I get your point though. Let’s see.


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[yetione]

Originally Posted by DoricSpiker

Send me a Xmas present if I am correct!

I get your point though. Let’s see.


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Well, the two concepts aren't mutually exclusive. The perfect level of supply is one which matches demand, meaning you should be able to walk in and buy one for Christmas. But they shouldn't have pieces in the back they can't sell, and they shouldn't have to offer discounts. That's the goal, anyways.

[Midlifegoals]

Originally Posted by yetione

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzlQCiWzV1U&t=12s

Here's a pretty solid look behind the curtain at the market, and what the guys in the executive suites who pull the levers are thinking about. Whole video is worth watching but Rolex and Omega come in around 3:53. In a nutshell though, Omega will be doing things that help them increase their average price/unit sold. They have this massively popular hero product which, if they can drive full retail price sales, will help them significantly in doing that. Part of that though is to be very careful so as not to oversupply the market.

Excellent video. I’m hoping they rush enough out the door to fill my allocation and what they do after that is their business! Haha


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[yetione]

Originally Posted by Midlifegoals

Excellent video. I’m hoping they rush enough out the door to fill my allocation and what they do after that is their business! Haha


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Ha! you and me both

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by codecow

I’m starting to feel FOMO on this one, I might have to order it.

Why? This will be below retail before you know it.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by yetione

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzlQCiWzV1U&t=12s

Here's a pretty solid look behind the curtain at the market, and what the guys in the executive suites who pull the levers are thinking about. Whole video is worth watching but Rolex and Omega come in around 3:53. In a nutshell though, Omega will be doing things that help them increase their average price/unit sold. They have this massively popular hero product which, if they can drive full retail price sales, will help them significantly in doing that. Part of that though is to be very careful so as not to oversupply the market.

Wow...that dudes analysis is so accurate. People will happily and easily upgrade to TT or PM in Rolex, but other brands? NO CHNACE.

[yetione]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Wow...that dudes analysis is so accurate. People will happily and easily upgrade to TT or PM in Rolex, but other brands? NO CHNACE.

From what I've gathered he works in professional consulting so his insight is spot on. Highly recommend his channel.

[GrailTime]

What do you guys think resale price will be in a couple of months?

[yetione]

Originally Posted by gaffs

What do you guys think resale price will be in a couple of months?

Theo and Harris just predicted initial resales over $20k, with stabilization in the $15k-$20k range.


Personally, I think that's high. Maybe the first few outliers trade in the $20's, but I'd guess two months from now ... maybe 11-12k? and then hover around 10k until they're readily available.

[bibbi]

Originally Posted by yetione

Theo and Harris just predicted initial resales over $20k, with stabilization in the $15k-$20k range.

Don’t know these guys (sound like Flip and Flap) but this prediction seems to be ridiculous with an unlimited production.


bibbi

[codecow]

Uh if you can put a deposit on it why would resale be over MSRP?

[DoricSpiker]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Why? This will be below retail before you know it.

How many Rolexes are above retail these days? Off the top of my head I can think of 3 that I couldn’t get within 3 months, at retail or below.


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[yetione]

Originally Posted by bibbi

Don’t know these guys (sound like Flip and Flap) but this prediction seems to be ridiculous with an unlimited production.


bibbi

Originally Posted by codecow

Uh if you can put a deposit on it why would resale be over MSRP?

Time. Not everyone wants to wait 1/2/3 years for a watch, and the inevitable price increases that those years will bring.

[codecow]

Never mind haha, my local AD I just went to check and now they’re on a wait list for the pre-order.

Will have to text around.

[bibbi]

Sure. But even at the very early stage they trade at only €10.500 (MSRP of €8.900). And that’s just one week after the release. The price will only trend south from now on.


bibbi

[yetione]

Originally Posted by codecow

Never mind haha, my local AD I just went to check and now they’re on a wait list for the pre-order.

Will have to text around.

My OB took about 15 full price deposits and wont take anymore. Said they had over 100 names on their list.

Originally Posted by bibbi

Sure. But even at the very early stage they trade at only €10.500 (MSRP of €8.900). And that’s just one week after the release. The price will only trend south from now on.


bibbi

No one knows how scarce they are going to be yet. If the market learns even deposit people are waiting 6 months and normal people will wait 2 years the prices will adjust.

[DoricSpiker]

Originally Posted by bibbi

Sure. But even at the very early stage they trade at only €10.500 (MSRP of €8.900). And that’s just one week after the release. The price will only trend south from now on.


bibbi

Give your money to a financial advisor if that’s what you are after. I bought one because I love the watch. Shock horror!


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[bibbi]

Originally Posted by DoricSpiker

Give your money to a financial advisor if that’s what you are after. I bought one because I love the watch. Shock horror!


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What am I after? Definitely don’t give a dime for a potential price increase of this watch. Are you shocked your Omega may not appreciate like crazy?


bibbi

[DoricSpiker]

Originally Posted by bibbi

What am I after? Definitely don’t give a dime for a potential price increase of this watch. Are you shocked your Omega may not appreciate like crazy?


bibbi

I couldn’t give a monkeys what the price is in a few years. I buy watches because I love them. Come on in, the water is lovely!


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[djtheot]

Such a shame so much chat on resale on not the watch itself. Watch game ain’t what it’s use to be.


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[HL65]

Originally Posted by djtheot

Such a shame so much chat on resale on not the watch itself. Watch game ain’t what it’s use to be.


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Couldn’t agree more! Sure has changed last few years.

[Midlifegoals]

Originally Posted by codecow

Uh if you can put a deposit on it why would resale be over MSRP?

Definitely time and guarantee. OBs are taking full deposits without having a clue how quickly they can secure a watch to fulfill the deposit.

[codecow]

Originally Posted by yetione

My OB took about 15 full price deposits and wont take anymore. Said they had over 100 names on their list.





No one knows how scarce they are going to be yet. If the market learns even deposit people are waiting 6 months and normal people will wait 2 years the prices will adjust.

That makes sense.

I have to go to my normal AD tomorrow for an unrelated event, one of their storefronts out of state has Omega so there’s a good chance I can get one that way. If not, then I’ll hit up one of the old SA from that store who now works for a mega conglomerate.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by djtheot

Such a shame so much chat on resale on not the watch itself. Watch game ain’t what it’s use to be.


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This is why this comes up.

1) Watch is teased a few months back. People notice it is a crispy white dial in a SS watch. A very popular combination.

2) Watch is released. Omega allegedly sells them through boutiques only as they initially only have so many to go around.

3) WIS thirst kicks in and WIS want it NOW. Waitlists form. Flippers will buy at retail and offer at higher aftermarket prices due to "scarcity". FOMO forms. People pay substantially higher than retail so they don't miss out and have it NOW.

4) Omega is aware of this and must capitalize on the hype by making more of them. Open them up to dealers. Have them online via Omega E-commerce. MORE MORE MORE.

5) Hype wears off as more of the reference hits the market. People lose interest because it's not as "rare" anymore. Omega AD start to discount them as they have sell them.

6) A fair percentage of people who paid a high price for early access see the asking / buying prices fall. They start complaining. They post on TRF and other sites how it sucks how the bottom fell out .

These watches cost money to buy them. They are not "free". Now I'm very aware that there are many, many members on TRF that depreciation of the reference is of zero concern as they have the means to see things that way, but overall the market prefers brands that hold their value as the perception is essentially if it loses value , then it's crap.

So, of course, resale and value retention are going to be a part of the discussion...

[djtheot]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

This is why this comes up.

1) Watch is teased a few months back. People notice it is a crispy white dial in a SS watch. A very popular combination.

2) Watch is released. Omega allegedly sells them through boutiques only as they initially only have so many to go around.

3) WIS thirst kicks in and WIS want it NOW. Waitlists form. Flippers will buy at retail and offer at higher aftermarket prices due to "scarcity". FOMO forms. People pay substantially higher than retail so they don't miss out and have it NOW.

4) Omega is aware of this and must capitalize on the hype by making more of them. Open them up to dealers. Have them online via Omega E-commerce. MORE MORE MORE.

5) Hype wears off as more of the reference hits the market. People lose interest because it's not as "rare" anymore. Omega AD start to discount them as they have sell them.

6) A fair percentage of people who paid a high price for early access see the asking / buying prices fall. They start complaining. They post on TRF and other sites how it sucks how the bottom fell out .

These watches cost money to buy them. They are not "free". Now I'm very aware that there are many, many members on TRF that depreciation of the reference is of zero concern as they have the means to see things that way, but overall the market prefers brands that hold their value as the perception is essentially if it loses value , then it's crap.

So, of course, resale and value retention are going to be a part of the discussion...

Thanks. I have collected watches for over 20 years and seen the full hype cycle that covid bought and sucks media bought to this hobby. I have been part of this forum for over a decade. I Remember the days you could buy a Patek aquanaut at discount. The discussion in these forums then were about the merits of the watch. The market is settling back down and better days ahead where true WIS play and flippers and speculators become fewer.


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[Dirt]

Originally Posted by djtheot

Such a shame so much chat on resale on not the watch itself. Watch game ain’t what it’s use to be.


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Agreed.
It may well turn around as things always seem to go full circle, but I think for that to happen the whole watch ownership experience dynamic will have to change profoundly.
As things currently stand with the relationship people have with watches as a fast-buck investment has to end as well.

[codecow]

Originally Posted by Midlifegoals

Definitely time and guarantee. OBs are taking full deposits without having a clue how quickly they can secure a watch to fulfill the deposit.

My local one was taking $1k but I guess their slots filled up.

I guess I just don’t see this piece as a hype piece. It’s a standard watch for Omega with a different and cool dial, not a limited piece, not a Snoopy, etc… at a fair price for what you get.

There is a lot of competition at this price point, so unless someone really wants a sapphire sandwich with this dial there are many options if Omega can’t keep them in stock.

[red1108nyc]

No doubt a readily available piece in 6 months. A great looking model and obtainable at a fair pricing point by the mass is a wonderful thing!

Anyone else tried in person?

[djtheot]

Originally Posted by red1108nyc

No doubt a readily available piece in 6 months. A great looking model and obtainable at a fair pricing point by the mass is a wonderful thing!

Anyone else tried in person?

Picked mine up this week. It’s wonderful


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[red1108nyc]

Originally Posted by djtheot

Picked mine up this week. It’s wonderful


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Congratulations!

There is something about the red on a white dial that makes it so appealing. Like the red “daytona” on a white 116520 or red GMT hand on the polar 16570.. just a nice touch.

Thanks for sharing a fantastic wristshot here buddy