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28 February 2020, 09:28 PM | #421 | |
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But trying to time the market goes against most strategy. I find historically, in tough times like this, sticking to the plan makes or breaks winners and losers. Of course, everyone has different plans. If I sell now, I’m screwed. If it goes all the way down, we are all screwed, and it doesn’t much matter anyway. I’m genuinely glad you got out. Truth is, I’ve been telling my FA for months that we need to get out. I’ve been preaching impending doom on here for months. I’m glad I’ve got so much in fixed income. But I’m gutted with how much I’ve lost in equities. Either way, what I’m trying to say is I believe your comments to be spot on. Watching CNBC now as I do every morning. And oooff. It’s painful.
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28 February 2020, 10:17 PM | #422 | |
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread
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Maybe in a perfect world. This stock market hasn't been based in reality for a long time. There are AI bots that trade based on what they see on Twitter. That is exactly the definition of market watching the news. HFTs that trade on pennies of arbitrage and front run limit orders and pick off stops. I would love it if what you said was true, but it really isn't. Google: 2010 Flash Crash and explain how core principles of $1,000,000,000,000 investing changed in 36 minutes.
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28 February 2020, 10:33 PM | #423 |
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The world's largest high-end audio event, HIGH END in Munich, has been cancelled. This is a MAJOR event, the biggest within our luxury audio industry. More info at
www.EnjoyTheMusic.com/HIGH_END_2020/
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28 February 2020, 10:39 PM | #424 | |
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We will then respectfully disagree. People did indeed travel far and wide in the late 1700’s and 1800’s. The epidemics were far, far more lethal and a public never more ill prepared-not even understanding the causes let alone having adequate medical care. Yet society moved on, and progressed. See it’s history that puts these things in their proper perspectives so they can be viewed and understood more easily. Small pox, yellow fever, cholera, typhus, etc killing thousands every year in the 13 colonies. In 1793, 5000 people died and 17000 fled Philadelphia that’s out of about 40,000 total citizens in that city at the time. Same with politics, people think things are crazy now, actual physical fights have broken out in Congress in the 1800’s, think the media is divisive now, look into the the Aurora newspaper stared by Benjamin Franklin Bache in the late 1700’s. A newspaper secretly in league with Thomas Jefferson to undermine the federalists at the time. My point being that looking to history will do much to squash the hysteria regarding this seasons epidemic. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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28 February 2020, 10:42 PM | #425 |
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28 February 2020, 10:45 PM | #426 |
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28 February 2020, 10:49 PM | #427 |
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Extreme caution must be taken in interpreting mortality statistics at this point because it is an absolute certainty that the denominator is higher than reported - because the number of confirmed cases will always be lower than the number of total cases. The only question is how big the discrepancy is between those two numbers: we have to hope it’s large but nobody is currently able to even provide a decent estimate. Time will tell.
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28 February 2020, 11:44 PM | #428 |
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The scariest part of all this is that it seems people can get it again even after they recover from it. If we get lucky and this goes away in the springtime then we just need to hold out and be as careful as possible. If people can't develop antibodies to this virus then vaccines might not be entirely useful even when available
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28 February 2020, 11:51 PM | #429 | |
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28 February 2020, 11:55 PM | #430 | |
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28 February 2020, 11:58 PM | #431 |
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29 February 2020, 12:02 AM | #432 |
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29 February 2020, 12:07 AM | #433 |
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29 February 2020, 12:08 AM | #434 | |
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If you recall (maybe you don't) earlier on, the stock market gained, despite the news (contrary to your theory)... but as the situation started catching up, it was clear things were going south... Businesses stated they weren't going to make quarterly projections... Not because of the news, the news was reported because of this... You keep believing what you want, sorry the news is disrupting your business.. Oh and I never proclaimed myself as a "stock market genius", none of us have if I recall, just a friendly thread on trading. Or was. |
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29 February 2020, 12:44 AM | #435 | |
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At the end of the day it’s fine to have a discussion about this and not get nasty. If you feel like I’ve said something wrong then PM me and let me know and I will apologize for it. If not let’s continue to have a civil conversation and discuss our opinions.
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29 February 2020, 12:48 AM | #436 |
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Excellent point. Time to sell some more stocks?
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Morality does not derive from consensus. It only comes from one place. Pride goes before destruction, and haughtiness before a fall. Often times unbelief is disguised as wisdom Instagram - patton250 |
29 February 2020, 12:49 AM | #437 |
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Thank you for that chart. I was looking for one myself. It’s extremely helpful. I appreciate it.
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29 February 2020, 01:02 AM | #438 |
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What I find most fascinating is that all markets are crashing except for China’s. They had an early brunt but it wasn’t even a correction. It’s been fairly stable since. So while a recovery happens there, the rest of the world burns. Is it just me who finds this deeply fascinating? I don’t want to sound like a conspirator, but it would be an opportunity to financially pick up the pieces and take full leverage of ones competitor.
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29 February 2020, 01:02 AM | #439 | |
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Yes, and that is you opinion and you are entitled to that opinion, nobody's going to change it. But it's the way you respond to some people in a condescending manner ("Lol, K"; "Self proclaimed stock market geniuses", etc) that really shows you as a self proclaimed know it all. And nobody likes that, and least I think not. But you keep doing you. |
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29 February 2020, 01:07 AM | #440 | |
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I most certainly don’t know it all. If you don’t believe that you can ask my wife and she will verify that. :-) I do feel strongly however that we are incredibly overreacting as a country and it’s being cheered on by the media for cynical purposes. And as you said I’m allowed to have my opinion. So once again if I upset you then I apologize.
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Morality does not derive from consensus. It only comes from one place. Pride goes before destruction, and haughtiness before a fall. Often times unbelief is disguised as wisdom Instagram - patton250 |
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29 February 2020, 01:10 AM | #441 | |
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again though, a bit of Mother Nature cleaning house. for better and for worse.
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29 February 2020, 01:12 AM | #442 | |
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Maybe the Chinese market is rigged by their government.
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29 February 2020, 01:14 AM | #443 |
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All we keep hearing are conflicting opinions from "experts", leaders, media, and politicians. Followed up by trying to read into what the market activity "really" means. At the end of the day, this could blow over or become a real disaster. I do agree with certain others that the media is over feeding this as they normally do.
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29 February 2020, 01:17 AM | #444 | |
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29 February 2020, 01:18 AM | #445 | |
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I wouldn't be surprised if there are already hundreds of infected individuals right now who are currently undiagnosed. The manifestations are mild in the vast majority of cases, just a nasty respiratory tract infection that wouldn't necessarily trigger a patient to seek care. We should face the fact that the majority of Americans will eventually be exposed, and hope that it is gradual rather than sudden with the measures we take. Hospitals are bracing for a sudden wave of patients needing ICU support to survive this infection, but we haven't stressed the system like this across the country since I've been practicing at least. |
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29 February 2020, 01:21 AM | #446 |
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Well there goes this thread. Thanks man.
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29 February 2020, 01:22 AM | #447 | |
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Quote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/h...mptomatic.html
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29 February 2020, 01:25 AM | #448 | |
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29 February 2020, 01:26 AM | #449 |
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You are welcome Side effect of staring at 5 monitors at once
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29 February 2020, 01:37 AM | #450 | |
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Some sobering info from my professional society's recent publication (RSNA): 1. 50% of patients with infection can have normal CT scans 0-2 days after symptom onset. 2. The blood test sensitivity may be as low as 60-70%, so a false negative blood test in symptomatic patients is quite possible. 3. Abnormalities on CT scans when they do occur are pretty nonspecific when they do show up. Good news is that there is a pattern, so if we know there is a clinical suspicion, we can support a diagnosis and assess severity by imaging. 4. Abnormalities peak 9-13 days after symptom onset, and take over 1 month to clear up. This is not unusual, as imaging findings often lag behind clinical recovery with infection anywhere. TL;DR we don't have the tools to reliably and accurately diagnose or exclude this disease early in its course. |
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