Nautilus prices softening

[GB-man]

Forget watches I keep watching prices on 911s soften. If the car market is any indication these premiums might dry right up at some point soon.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Forget watches I keep watching prices on 911s soften. If the car market is any indication these premiums might dry right up at some point soon.

Think bigger bro... deploy as much capital as u can. While borrowing at small % rates

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Think bigger bro... deploy as much capital as u can. While borrowing at small % rates

When right now? Hell no lol

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

When right now? Hell no lol

Why not now?

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Why not now?

I’ll pass on levering up and deploying as much capital as possible heading into the fall before an election year 10 years into a bull market without a major pullback.

[locutus49]

Leveraging: it is how the rich get richer.

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Think bigger bro... deploy as much capital as u can. While borrowing at small % rates

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Leveraging: it is how the rich get richer.

I need to meet some of these people

[locutus49]

Rumor has it you ARE one of these people.

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I need to meet some of these people

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Think bigger bro... deploy as much capital as u can. While borrowing at small % rates

While I agree that the world is flooded with liquidity and fears mean that liquidity (and those bubbles) aren’t going anywhere for now, that is a very very very (very very very) dangerous position to take.

[GreenLantern]

By the way, obviously prices will soften. Look at the chart. That's a classic irrational exuberance situation.

I'd expect it to adjust down, then up, then down, until it settles a bit.

Unfortunately, because supply is artificially controlled, it won't ever match any proper pattern. But the overall sentiment in the general buying public does feel like irrational exuberance to me.

[Bearxj86]

I only have one thing to say:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo-KmOd3i7s

Don't worry, its suitable for work.

[Mr Naultilus]

About time, but i'm sure it will come back stronger than ever

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

About time, but i'm sure it will come back stronger than ever

I’m just going to tell u NO.

CNH is going to blow out. And the trade wars prevent them from exporting. And their velocity of money is declining... and their debt is high.


Lots there. But NO

[Mr Naultilus]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I’m just going to tell u NO.

CNH is going to blow out. And the trade wars prevent them from exporting. And their velocity of money is declining... and their debt is high.


Lots there. But NO

So is that a NO then?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

So is that NO then?

YES. Lol

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

YES. Lol

agreed! return to status quo may occur very long term, 5 years or so. not short term. one must be in denial of economic realities to believe a fast recovery of the luxury market. china bad, europe bad, US starting to go bad, mid east in turmoil, what are you guys hoping for? 100K for 5711A? lol......

[BigAppleBill]

The O’Leary peak: when the 5711 officially jumped the shark (tank).

[impinth06]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

The O’Leary peak: when the 5711 officially jumped the shark (tank).

Nailed it

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

The O’Leary peak: when the 5711 officially jumped the shark (tank).

Originally Posted by impinth06

Nailed it

Haha, wait a minute! Now that you mention it... Prices did start to fall after the Kevin O'Leary YT video hit.

Kevin O'Leary is truly the dentist in this scenario. Wow.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Haha, wait a minute! Now that you mention it... Prices did start to fall after the Kevin O'Leary YT video hit.

Kevin O'Leary is truly the dentist in this scenario. Wow.

Just a guy with an outlet pumping up his own “investments”. That’s not far from shark tank.

If he didn’t realize he was the wake up call that’s only because his eyes were on the prize, not thinking about the nautical safety course he missed while he was shooting his youtube video.

[pam66]

although i am a big sport watch fan i start to think that is makes sense to unload a few nautis rather sooner than later to fund more 'sustainable' watches of higher horological content, like the 5270P or the 5370P....questions...

[Pim]

To get back on topic, i see the prices softening indeed. One of my preferred pre owned sellers (luxurywatches) has a couple of (uncomplicated) nautili and they are all under 60K euro

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Pim

To get back on topic, i see the prices softening indeed. One of my preferred pre owned sellers (luxurywatches) has a couple of (uncomplicated) nautili and they are all under 60K euro

The guys w two white 5711s shy of EUR 60k, a 5712 for EUR 77k, and a 5711/1R for EUR 112k, all used and several years old? I am not saying there was no softening but these asking prices are right up there, especially for the /1R.

The issue is that turnover at the elevated prices has slowed down, supply has substantially increased, but asking prices didn't drop accordingly as everybody seems to be hoping for the summer slump to end and/or for a xmas season pickup.

[patriot885]

Originally Posted by ts3

The guys w two white 5711s shy of EUR 60k, a 5712 for EUR 77k, and a 5711/1R for EUR 112k, all used and several years old? I am not saying there was no softening but these asking prices are right up there, especially for the /1R.

The issue is that turnover at the elevated prices has slowed down, supply has substantially increased, but asking prices didn't drop accordingly as everybody seems to be hoping for the summer slump to end and/or for a xmas season pickup.

Good Point. I think people who surf this forum here wouldn't buy it in the price before "softening" and wouldn't buy it after price "softening" ("soften" from a 250 % retail to 180-200%). And news- there is 50 % chance they wouldn't buy it on retail as well.

So don't celebrate yet. Prices of the nautilus will come down back to retail/below retail only in those 2 unlikely events-

1. Patek is going out of business because no one want's any patek anymore.
2. There is another model on hype and you wouldn't want this "ugly square" one anyway.

The current softening is due to our guys in HK have something else on their mind, soon to be over.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by patriot885

Good Point. I think people who surf this forum here wouldn't buy it in the price before "softening" and wouldn't buy it after price "softening" ("soften" from a 250 % retail to 180-200%). And news- there is 50 % chance they wouldn't buy it on retail as well.

So don't celebrate yet. Prices of the nautilus will come down back to retail/below retail only in those 2 unlikely events-

1. Patek is going out of business because no one want's any patek anymore.
2. There is another model on hype and you wouldn't want this "ugly square" one anyway.

The current softening is due to our guys in HK have something else on their mind, soon to be over.

Sounds like you have a horse in the race.

[patriot885]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Sounds like you have a horse in the race.

My race is different than watch dealing (I am a lawyer and an author).

However, i do own a 5726/1A-001 (bracelet) which i chose over a 5712/1A-001
(both on retail in AD), although "everyone" and the AD himself push me to get the 5712 (it's hot it's like a stock, the 5726 is unwanted and so on). So i can't be considered in the "race".
Of course, the reward for a man with his own principles came in the recent position of my watch as the most sought after steel nautilus (still, not for sale).

[locutus49]

Since you are an author could you please explain that last sentence to me? I read it three times and still don't know what it means. No reflection on you, it is late and I am dense.

Originally Posted by patriot885

My race is different than watch dealing (I am a lawyer and an author).

However, i do own a 5726/1A-001 (bracelet) which i chose over a 5712/1A-001
(both on retail in AD), although "everyone" and the AD himself push me to get the 5712 (it's hot it's like a stock, the 5726 is unwanted and so on). So i can't be considered in the "race".
Of course, the reward for a man with his own principles came in the recent position of my watch as the most sought after steel nautilus (still, not for sale).

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Sounds like you have a horse in the race.

This was actually funny...never heard anyone say that before

[Humble michael]

Yep Ninja although I think he had a dog in the fight ha!

[SpeedyTuomas]

Well the premiums are still crazy but possibly marginally less crazy than before.