Apple's new computer watch

[locutus49]

As I said in another thread, an analogy is collecting antique leather-bound books. Up until 7 years ago, they were guaranteed to increase in value as supply was limited and demand high by men who wanted to create personal libraries. I collect them.

Then the ebook was invented. And a similar discussion to this one took place. The consensus of the book world was that there would always be a place for fine books.

Fast forward to today, where an antiquarian book dealer told me prices were plummeting (except for certain very rare volumes), as young people for the most part had no interest in leather-bound books, or any book for that matter, and for creating the libraries of the past.

So while there will always be a small group of collectors of fine watches and books, the days of sales in the millions (of units) will fade away over the years. Just a reality. And a sad one, IMO.

Originally Posted by rpryan55

You will be in increasingly dwindling company. Right now, Rolex, Patek et al are scurrying. They realize this isn't like the quartz scare. Smart watches are a tool. People will want to wear a timepiece that takes dictation, sends and receives messages, is a fitness tracker, and displays not just the time and date, but also the weather where you are, where you are going, and your schedule (and that's about one percent of what the current, crude model can do. Wait three years.)

I'm happy you like your increasingly quaint collection. But anyone with a brain can see that the ride is coming to an end. In answer to your question, yes, I am selling my watches. While I can still get value. I am being ultra premature, but they won't go up significantly before the prices take a rapid dive.

I have a friend who is an employee in the Swiss watch industry. He says that companies are quietly advertising for computer specialists. For the last two months. Hmmmmm....

[RollieVerde]

I didn't realize Rolex was scurrying. Do they scurry in Switzerland? I know they had to really put in the hours to get the new DeepSea prototypes ready to ride Cameron's sub into the abyss, but I was unaware of any scurrying. The Apple Watch has the fault of all modern e-devices: it's dependent on a dozen other devices to be fully functional. From needing the iPhone which needs an internet connection which need software to be glitch free and requiring charging every day there are so many ways for it to fail. A mechanical watch is a self contained machine that does it's job for decades, often holding its value or even appreciating in the process. I can depend on it for the time, and keeping my bottom time, no matter where I might be. The Apple watch is tethered in so many ways, and doesn't do anything my phone can't. I don't see the future; I see technology being marketed thinner and thinner.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by T. Ferguson

And I'm sorry that apparently you are no longer that fond of your increasingly quaint collection.

Look, no question the smart watch is functional. All I'm saying is that it doesn't and won't do anything new that the phone can't do, and the phone has certain inherent advantages in terms of screen size and the ability to cram electronics into it. Right now the smart watch is nothing more than a mouse/external monitor for your phone. When it does become a stand alone device and I no longer need both, I would probably still choose the phone for the bigger screen, higher level of electronics/features/battery capacity/storage. I also like that it is better for carrying on private conversations and can be operated with two hands (or thumbs if you will). So ultimately the watch is a convenience more than it is a necessity.

If you think people will stop buying Rolex because the iwatch is a better tool, I think you are missing the point. I respect your opinion but I don't agree with it.

I'm sure a lot of members here will go out and get an Apple watch. When a bunch of them come back and say they can't live without it and are selling off all their mechanicals, then Rolex should start worrying. But for now let's see if the smart watch can even compete with the phone before we assume it will destroy the luxury timepiece market.

You may be right, but (pardon the pun) time will march on. In three, four years tops, it becomes a powerful stand alone device. And it's possibilities are endless. You cannot wear two devices on your wrist, and when push comes to shove you believe most will pick up their very expensive and (quite admittedly) beautiful handcrafted Swiss timepiece while I believe they will pick up the sleek and beautiful piece of technology that will make their lives better and easier. (Did I mention it comes with a killer fitness tracker?)

Let's face it: we both have more money than we care to admit riding on that decision, and which of us is right. Believe it or not, I hope it's you. Sadly, I know it's me.

[Baco Noir]

The screen is too small and data entry too clunky to replace the smart phone at this point, thus it stays an accessory rather than a primary data management / communication device. Think about reading or editing a work document on the watch? It's not bad on a tablet, harder on a phone and on a watch screen - ridiculous to even consider.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Baco Noir

The screen is too small and data entry too clunky to replace the smart phone at this point, thus it stays an accessory rather than a primary data management / communication device. Think about reading or editing a work document on the watch? It's not bad on a tablet, harder on a phone and on a watch screen - ridiculous to even consider.

"Yea. And they only can do a million pixels and the technology is poor. I'm keeping my analogue camera and all my equipment. The prices won't go down. Digital cameras are too limited." - camera enthusiast, 1998.

That equipment, now valueless, sits in the basement. Thousands and thousand of dollars, reduced to pennies.

[T. Ferguson]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

You may be right, but (pardon the pun) time will march on. In three, four years tops, it becomes a powerful stand alone device.

See, this is where I think it gets interesting. As an accessory to the phone certainly some people will buy it. But when it stands alone, then it will be an either/or proposition, and which one will people choose? The phone with that nice fat screen for watching movies, taking pictures and videos, reading texts and emails, and the keyboard that is at least big enough to be somewhat useful, more battery capacity, more storage...? Or the watch? Point is once it is an independent device it comes into direct competition with the phone and I'm not sure it can win that contest.

Frankly, I think the best bet is for Apple to leave the thing tethered to the phone. So as long as people want their watch it will increase sales of their phone. Same for the other companies. If it replaces the phone then everyone they sell is an iphone they do not sell. No net gain to speak of.

[Baco Noir]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

"Yea. And they only can do a million pixels and the technology is poor. I'm keeping my analogue camera and all my equipment. The prices won't go down. Digital cameras are too limited." - camera enthusiast, 1998.



That equipment, now valueless, sits in the basement. Thousands and thousand of dollars, reduced to pennies.

I saw that coming and dumped all my medium format camera equipment when the first DSLRs were getting announced for the professional albeit at ridiculously high prices. The features were there but the price was out of reach, initially. It was then just a matter of getting the price down.

With the Apple watch there are several predecessors and all lack features and functions to be a stand alone item if much use and the screen is a death nail.

[Ken Nielsen]

Time to buy the wife a digital diamond ring... "Look honey, it's quartz, and now it's diamond! Here, I'll text you a heart."

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Baco Noir

I saw that coming and dumped all my medium format camera equipment when the first DSLRs were getting announced for the professional albeit at ridiculously high prices. The features were there but the price was out of reach, initially. It was then just a matter of getting the price down.

With the Apple watch there are several predecessors and all lack features and functions to be a stand alone item if much use and the screen is a death nail.

Okay. You keep your watch collection. By the way, that book collection you have, what's the value on that now?

You are living in a world where what "people will always want" is replaced by whatever is new. YOU may prefer your timepiece, but the young people who drive the markets will have no use for them. Hell, the vast majority of them see proper English and grammar as useless. They want information NOW. How much quicker can they get that than by a simple glance at their wrist?

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Ken Nielsen

Time to buy the wife a digital diamond ring... "Look honey, it's quartz, and now it's diamond! Here, I'll text you a heart."

Are you comparing a watch, which is a functional tool, to a diamond, which is simple jewelry? If so, you're clearly confused about the issue.

[Welshwatchman]

Two androids or apples on one's person is not a swiss watch industry killer IMO.

The industry will quietly diminish over the next several decades, regardless.

It will gradually dwindle as the adherents die and the new adopters shy away from $10,000 SS watches.

Rolex sales may drop, 900,000 then 800,000 then 700,000 etc etc. Perhaps 100,000 a year sales by the time I'm (and most of you are) dead and the world population is 10 billion.

In the meantime it's a war between the pocket and the wrist for android and apple users.

Didn't they miss an opportunity with the Inecklace?

The next real step is for the computer to be in the eye.

Google glasses is just the start. Who needs to glance at the wrist for the computer?. That will be sooooooo 2015.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Welshwatchman

Two androids or apples on one's person is not a swiss watch industry killer IMO.

The industry will quietly diminish over the next several decades, regardless.

It will gradually dwindle as the adherents die and the new adopters shy away from $10,000 SS watches.

Rolex sales may drop, 900,000 then 800,000 then 700,000 etc etc. Perhaps 100,000 a year sales by the time I'm (and most of you are) dead and the world population is 10 billion.

In the meantime it's a war between the pocket and the wrist for android and apple users.

Didn't they miss an opportunity with the Inecklace?

The next real step is for the computer to be in the eye.

Google glasses is just the start. Who needs to glance at the wrist for the computer?. That will be sooooooo 2015.

The application in the eye is not as far off as you think. Technology moves much, much faster than it used to. That's my point. Android watches were not on my radar, but Apple has done a superb job with this first attempt. Both Android and Apple will soon make them sleeker, more utilitarian, and more indispensable. That won't take more than a decade, at most. Less actually. By the time that happens, there WILL be Google contacts and all sorts of things we can't foresee from our poor vantage point.

And that's the point. Mechanical watches will fall away. Soon. Technology, in ten short years, will be an industry killer. Talk to a bookseller. Talk to a camera shop owner. They will tell you it happens in the blink of an eye.

[Welshwatchman]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

The application in the eye is not as far off as you think. Technology moves much, much faster than it used to. That's my point. Android watches were not on my radar, but Apple has done a superb job with this first attempt. Both Android and Apple will soon make them sleeker, more utilitarian, and more indispensable. That won't take more than a decade, at most. Less actually. By the time that happens, there WILL be Google contacts and all sorts of things we can't foresee from our poor vantage point.

And that's the point. Mechanical watches will fall away. Soon. Technology, in ten short years, will be an industry killer. Talk to a bookseller. Talk to a camera shop owner. They will tell you it happens in the blink of an eye.

And that's the point for us, also.

Mechanical watch sales will dwindle as the adherents die and the new adopters don't take their place.

Rolex will still be selling 100,000+ mechanical watches a year in 15 years time. It's a fairly safe bet.

Technology in 15 years?

God knows. First, in the eye, then to the brain. It's all possible.

Rolex and Patek are jewelry for men and the brands are very strong.

Computers won't replace jewelry anytime soon.

[77T]

The limiting factor for our foreseeable future will be powering the device. It gets old having to recharge every night.

So the utility factor is something of a limitation.

Next, tethering is a real problem, too. As Grady said - the phone is the issue. Smart move by Apple to try and lock you into their product line with an extra touch point.

Early adopter curves have a habit of spiking interest. It's when the sales volume reaches 500 million that the threat begins to materialize.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Welshwatchman

And that's the point for us, also.

Mechanical watch sales will dwindle as the adherents die and the new adopters don't take their place.

Rolex will still be selling 100,000+ mechanical watches a year in 15 years time. It's a fairly safe bet.

Technology in 15 years?

God knows. First, in the eye, then to the brain. It's all possible.

Rolex and Patek are jewelry for men and the brands are very strong.

Computers won't replace jewelry anytime soon.

Yea. They won't replace books, cameras, machinery, manual transmissions.......

I don't doubt that Rolex and Patek are strong. That's why they will move very quickly to smart watches.

Your collection will be worth half it's current value in five years and the devaluation will be exponential after that.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by 77T

The limiting factor for our foreseeable future will be powering the device. It gets old having to recharge every night.

So the utility factor is something of a limitation.

Next, tethering is a real problem, too. As Grady said - the phone is the issue. Smart move by Apple to try and lock you into their product line with an extra touch point.

Early adopter curves have a habit of spiking interest. It's when the sales volume reaches 500 million that the threat begins to materialize.

Yup. Those smart phones will never make it. You have to plug them in every night, too. Oops.

It's technology. It's coming. Mechanical devices that take up the real estate of a wearable device are going out. Period.

If you cannot see the future you will forever be behind the times.

[77T]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

Yup. Those smart phones will never make it. You have to plug them in every night, too. Oops.



It's technology. It's coming. Mechanical devices that take up the real estate of a wearable device are going out. Period.



If you cannot see the future you will forever be behind the times.

Your condescending manner isn't welcome.

Your opinion isn't elevated by denigrating other opinions.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by 77T

Your condescending manner isn't welcome.

Your opinion isn't elevated by denigrating other opinions.

I did not denigrate your opinion. I merely showed you it was wrong.

[RollieVerde]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

I did not denigrate your opinion. I merely showed you it was wrong.

You haven't shown anything. You've just made an argument based on the fact that you think new tech, no matter how useless, will be as successful as previous successful technology. You are thinking without looking at the tech in question, or even considering that the tech boom will come in stages, like all technology has over history. People are already growing weary of a lot of this newfound connectivity, which they see as a form of surveillance and just a generally intrusive pain in the processor. I think these new smart watches will push this feeling further, and not be the blanket revolution you predict. Mechanical watches are quite safe. They don't pester you, follow you or demand you upgrade their software. That's my opinion, which is oceans deeper, vastly more knowledgable, and generally more charming that your pathetic little squeaks.

[Welshwatchman]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

I did not denigrate your opinion. I merely showed you it was wrong.

In your mind buddy. Assertion and demonstration mean different things and you're all about the former.

If anyone wants to tap into your genius there's the PM system.

I ain't selling either. Mine are toys to be played with and when I'm dust then my estate can throw them into the road if they choose.

In fact, if you want to dump your load of redundant crap on me for 2/3rd of the market place, I'll mop them up in a moment.

I have buddies on your side of the water to handle the matter.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by RollieVerde

You haven't shown anything. You've just made an argument based on the fact that you think new tech, no matter how useless, will be as successful as previous successful technology. You are thinking without looking at the tech in question, or even considering that the tech boom will come in stages, like all technology has over history. People are already growing weary of a lot of this newfound connectivity, which they see as a form of surveillance and just a generally intrusive pain in the processor. I think these new smart watches will push this feeling further, and not be the blanket revolution you predict. Mechanical watches are quite safe. They don't pester you, follow you or demand you upgrade their software. That's my opinion, which is oceans deeper, vastly more knowledgable, and generally more charming that your pathetic little squeaks.

An unusually high opinion of yourself. That is typical of the deluded.

Of course, you are forgetting that people said the same thing about rolls of film, about encyclopedias, about manual transmissions in sport cars, about pocket watches, about desktop computers, etc. That's called obsolescence, out of style, stale, uncool.

I don't know in what circles you inhabit, save perhaps an institution, but people are dying for the next big thing. People like you and your kind have a name: Luddites.

[Welshwatchman]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

An unusually high opinion of yourself. That is typical of the deluded.

Of course, you are forgetting that people said the same thing about rolls of film, about encyclopedias, about manual transmissions in sport cars, about pocket watches, about desktop computers, etc. That's called obsolescence, out of style, stale, uncool.

I don't know in what circles you inhabit, save perhaps an institution, but people are dying for the next big thing. People like you and your kind have a name: Luddites.

It's time for you to insult me so that we can get this thing over with.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Welshwatchman

In your mind buddy. Assertion and demonstration mean different things and you're all about the former.

If anyone wants to tap into your genius there's the PM system.

I ain't selling either. Mine are toys to be played with and when I'm dust then my estate can throw them into the road if they choose.

In fact, if you want to dump your load of redundant crap on me for 2/3rd of the market place, I'll mop them up in a moment.

I have buddies on your side of the water to handle the matter.

Not a chance. So long as there are still true believers like you, I can get full value.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Welshwatchman

It's time for you to insult me so that we can get this thing over with.

Sorry. I only insult when first insulted.

[Welshwatchman]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

Sorry. I only insult when first insulted.

You think that me and the other mods are going to let you act like a dick, Dick?

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Welshwatchman

You think that me and the other mods are going to let you act like a dick, Dick?

This is uncalled for. Nowhere here have I been guilty of anything but attempting a healthy debate, on what I now see as a sensitive subject. Yes, you quoted a sarcastic post written by me. But didn't you see it was in response to an uncalled for insult? I had said nothing to the man. He didn't quote a post from me to him, he quoted a post from me to another. Perhaps he should be warned.

Nonetheless, your threat, with its own insult inherent, (yes, I know my name has another meaning), is not one I would expect from you.

Have a good day.

[Baco Noir]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

Sorry. I only insult when first insulted.

Go back to your first post. You called anyone not in line with your opinion both foolish and ignorant. You been acting like an ass and when called on it, get defensive. Instead you should just get over it.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Baco Noir

Go back to your first post. You called anyone not in line with your opinion both foolish and ignorant. You been acting like an ass and when called on it, get defensive. Instead you should just get over it.

In no way was that first post anything but a strong statement of belief. No one would reasonably think they had been insulted. But if you did, you have my apologies. I did not mean to insult you.

[Baco Noir]

Originally Posted by rpryan55

Okay. You keep your watch collection. By the way, that book collection you have, what's the value on that now?

You are living in a world where what "people will always want" is replaced by whatever is new. YOU may prefer your timepiece, but the young people who drive the markets will have no use for them. Hell, the vast majority of them see proper English and grammar as useless. They want information NOW. How much quicker can they get that than by a simple glance at their wrist?

I will keep my watch collection and enjoy it. I did not buy any of it as an investment, and never would. Watches are luxury items and and generally not wise investments. I hope that my family will appreciate the historical significance of them as they are passed on to the next generation, as I have with my great grandfather's Elgin pocketwatch. I rarely wear it, but have had it serviced to preserve it for further generations as well.

I don't have a book collection and never have, so you have confused me with someone else.

Since you are concerned about your 'investment' in your watch collection, I'd agree it's time for YOU to sell and move on to something else. Good luck with you further endevours.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by Baco Noir

I will keep my watch collection and enjoy it. I did not buy any of it as an investment, and never would. Watches are luxury items and and generally not wise investments. I hope that my family will appreciate the historical significance of them as they are passed on to the next generation, as I have with my great grandfather's Elgin pocketwatch. I rarely wear it, but have had it serviced to preserve it for further generations as well.

I don't have a book collection and never have, so you have confused me with someone else.

Since you are concerned about your 'investment' in your watch collection, I'd agree it's time for YOU to sell and move on to something else. Good luck with you further endevours.

I'd agree with you that it didn't buy them as an investment, but I have great deal of money in them and I see a way to get that money out of something that will lose its value, fast. I hope I'm wrong. I know I'm not.