Soft watch market at the moment?

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Speed

So please...can anyone tell me what "bargains" there are to be had - by brand/model...And real deltas in prices pre-softness and now.

Just a few examples would be nice

Thanks!

You said what I was thinking.

There is no way I am in the Patek/RM league, I walk around the shops and don't see any big discounts on the brands that I can stretch for, that is, other than the normal "haggle discounts" one can achieve. But those discounts have been there as long as I can remember.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by daveathall

You said what I was thinking.

There is no way I am in the Patek/RM league, I walk around the shops and don't see any big discounts on the brands that I can stretch for, that is, other than the normal "haggle discounts" one can achieve. But those discounts have been there as long as I can remember.

I am still struggling myself to find a bargain...I went into an ALS dealer last week who has been trying to sell me a Datograph Perpetual for over a year and the maximum she is allowed to offer......5%!!!! She then showed me the stores allocation month by month for the next year and from what I saw with my eyes.....I can see why they don't have to discount!!

I have been outbid to close on full retail for many of the Lots I wanted at auction but do understand that inventory levels are building up at AD's. That means they will have to start dumping if they cant sell or there is no demand...so whilst I am looking for bargains...still havent found one!

And nothing bargain wise in here despite its door stopping use!

[Andad]

Soft watch market on Oz?

No stock!!

[Speed]

Originally Posted by benlee

Over here in Asia, prices are very soft as well. Trade in price to dealers reach new lows as well dealers are not sure if they can move inventory so the asking price is very low. Great deals to be had if one is looking to buy but not sell.

Which brands and models represent great deals for buyers Ben? Are you talking 30% off msrp for AP, Rolex or???

[el1125]

Originally Posted by Speed

Which brands and models represent great deals for buyers Ben? Are you talking 30% off msrp for AP, Rolex or???

I have not seen any deals personally on ANYTHING worthwhile...

[lapince]

Originally Posted by daveathall

You said what I was thinking.

There is no way I am in the Patek/RM league, I walk around the shops and don't see any big discounts on the brands that I can stretch for, that is, other than the normal "haggle discounts" one can achieve. But those discounts have been there as long as I can remember.

chrono24.com, you'll rarely get good discounts in the shops

[lapince]

Originally Posted by dera

If this is soft market, I'm happy with that. In this current "flipping round", I've 40x my initial investment in 1,5 years.

So this means if you have invested 10.000 dollars you now have 400.000 if so we would all be doing the same thing, LOL

[dera]

Originally Posted by lapince

So this means if you have invested 10.000 dollars you now have 400.000 if so we would all be doing the same thing, LOL

No, I started with 800 (NOS Speedmaster Reduced), now I have about 32k (116618LB and BLNR).

[lapince]

Originally Posted by dera

No, I started with 800 (NOS Speedmaster Reduced), now I have about 32k (116618LB and BLNR).

Oh ok, sorry, my bad, I was thinking WTF is he talking about???? Sorry dude

[QueueCumber]

Don't be fooled by the guy trying to sell his Mille collection. They're in the toilet just like everyone else... Lol

[texex91]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

Don't be fooled by the guy trying to sell his Mille collection. They're in the toilet just like everyone else... Lol

You must be referring to yourself trying to sell that LE that was advised not to buy. Actually, if you really knew what you are referring to you would know RM market (for the right pieces--which you didn't own) are hotter than ever. Go try and find a 035, 011, or a few others--not to be had at AD's.

Always a joy to hear from you, sounds like you still are holding a grudge...awww. Hey, I just lost some serious $$ on vintage Rolex...not great market

[QueueCumber]

I don't have an RM anymore. I also would never buy one again. At least not in the near future. You've spent a lot of time trying to sell people on these boards on RMs and convince them to buy RM. it's a very bad move to buy them right now. They're a huge loss across the board even when buying at a steep discount. I've talked to several used RM dealers and RM is one of the worst right now.

I saved your texts by the way. You never advised me against buying anything. You encouraged me to buy. You're quite the liar. Funny enough, I've been frequenting the Ferrari Chat forum and it seems like you create problems on a lot of different forums by hyping up products you have bought and then running when people get tired of your crap.

Yeah, you picked a bad 1680. It had obvious water damage. Thus the dark spots on the luminous. Funny enough, vintage is doing great. There's a great Hodinkee article contrasting the continuing rise of the vintage market versus the currently declining modern watch market. Likewise, auction results are also strong.

[GoingPlaces]

I think we are seeing the beginning of a softening market. We've seen production numbers increase and demand decrease. While many AD's are still reluctant to discount more than usual, inventory levels are climbing. All one needs to do is look at the watches for sale on this forum, some decent deals and are still not moving.

Certain markets not affected like others, ultra high end and ss Rolex sports models will continue to move as will vintage.

[lapince]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

Don't be fooled by the guy trying to sell his Mille collection. They're in the toilet just like everyone else... Lol

Queue, you need to clear some space in your PM box, it's full

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by lapince

Queue, you need to clear some space in your PM box, it's full

Thanks! Didn't notice. Just deleted a bunch of stuff.

[lapince]

Originally Posted by el1125

I have not seen any deals personally on ANYTHING worthwhile...

On the models I look at on the grey market, Nautilus models, AP ROO, and a few others, I can't say that I saw any big difference, but they are heavy sellers, so it's not the same thing, the only deals I saw on these are in Russia, because of the crisis there are on the types of watches I look at deals there, but living in Ukraine I will give one advice, if you find something, you take a plane and you go there, make a face to face deal, even if the shop has a great reputation, if you get scammed, not saying you will, you can say good bye to your money, you'll never ever see it again, so this is ok for the very expensive pieces, as you won't take a round trip to Russia to get a 5k watch.

The watch market may be soft for most brands, though the top hitters, Patek, Rolex and maybe AP, a few more maybe, will probably do well anyways, and not on all models, you are not sure to make a good investment if you buy a watch from these brands, you need the right ones, and at the right price, it is like all business, offer and demand, sure you can probably get a good deal from brands and models without a big demand, on a steel sub or GMT, or a PP 5711, as well as other pieces, not likely to happen any day soon...

[BeauneCrusher]

I understand that watch companies began to increase output to meet demand from the new markets such as China and Russia, and there will be a short term excess of inventory, as they buy less, coupled with a few traditional markets such as Spain and Italy that are having a tough time. It is a short term opportunity as I suspect the inventory levels will stabilize, so I decided to buy a couple of very high watches recently at very distressed prices.

[lapince]

Originally Posted by BeauneCrusher

I understand that watch companies began to increase output to meet demand from the new markets such as China and Russia, and there will be a short term excess of inventory, as they buy less, coupled with a few traditional markets such as Spain and Italy that are having a tough time. It is a short term opportunity as I suspect the inventory levels will stabilize, so I decided to buy a couple of very high watches recently at very distressed prices.

Exactly my thoughts, if there are problems it's mainly because of Russia and China buying much less, would like to know if you don't mind, what pieces did you get? If you don't mind knowing the discount you got would be cool for the readers, but just the models would be nice, thanks

[el1125]

Originally Posted by lapince

Exactly my thoughts, if there are problems it's mainly because of Russia and China buying much less, would like to know if you don't mind, what pieces did you get? If you don't mind knowing the discount you got would be cool for the readers, but just the models would be nice, thanks

Lapince, you are funny....not shy whatsoever....yea I also would like to know what high end pieces were bought at what distressed prices and what percent off MSRP...cause I haven't seen it myself really...

[KarlS]

I mentioned in a thread somewhere before. I asked this question directly to a PP chap who we shall say would be in the know. Yes China & Hong Kong are down but UK and USA very strong this year with double digit growth. They are making up the shortfall. Sales volume is not down overall but very strong. So the question is whether the Chinese and HK sales are down because its cheaper to buy in the UK (hence the increase in UK volumes) or Chinese taxes or a weaker pound? A huge market that has never been tapped is India...currently with 198 000 millionaires Patek doesn't even have an AD in that country. So typically any portfolio that is widely spread will have some geographies that go down and others that will come up...all balances out...one also forgets the buying power of the Iranians....that's another market for a rainy day....but I sure would love to know where these bargains are..yes I have noticed the 5575 sitting for ever on this forum. I think thats because the price is wrong not because a soft market. Its going for over double its retail price when launched..so i think some of teh froth is coming out the market and we will see realistic prices going forward...I may put one or 2 items on Chrono just to test and see....

[lapince]

Originally Posted by el1125

Lapince, you are funny....not shy whatsoever....yea I also would like to know what high end pieces were bought at what distressed prices and what percent off MSRP...cause I haven't seen it myself really...

Nope I am really not the shy type, that's for sure, here or in real life was extremely shy when I was a kid though, funny how things change...

Well There might be distressed prices, we might be just looking at the wrong brands you and I...

As I said earlier, the only deals to be had that I noticed, are in Russia, Italy which before was a great place on Chrono24 to get used and new Nautilus models at great prices, now is one of the most expensive places in Europe for the same pieces, just amazing really, haven't figured that one out

@KarlS: Haden't really thought about India but you are right, the day the brands will try to invest there the result should be good, don't know their involvement level in Brazil but as I understood there is a little like India, either very poor or very rich people, but the fact that people are ready to chop your arm off for a 5k watch might be a little problematic for many, not being able to walk freely most of the time without having the risk of being mugged almost every minute, is the kind of thing which would probably stop me from getting a high end watch...

[lapince]

Originally Posted by BeauneCrusher

I understand that watch companies began to increase output to meet demand from the new markets such as China and Russia, and there will be a short term excess of inventory, as they buy less, coupled with a few traditional markets such as Spain and Italy that are having a tough time. It is a short term opportunity as I suspect the inventory levels will stabilize, so I decided to buy a couple of very high watches recently at very distressed prices.

By the way we love pics here, don't hesitate to put some, wether here or on a separate thread, would love to see the pics of the two you got, or at least to know which ones, thanks man

Absolutely nothing to do with you, but it's about pics, guys when you make a thread asking the members to help you decide between different models, please post pics of the models, we are not all experts and not all of us know all the references, so having to google it is a hassle sometimes, and I am sure that most people don't do it, so you don't get as many answers as you would if you posted pics, sorry but have been thinking it for a long time, had to get out.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

I don't have an RM anymore. I also would never buy one again. At least not in the near future. You've spent a lot of time trying to sell people on these boards on RMs and convince them to buy RM. it's a very bad move to buy them right now. They're a huge loss across the board even when buying at a steep discount. I've talked to several used RM dealers and RM is one of the worst right now.

No one held a gun to your head Que you're a big boy that made your own decisions. Market RM is stronger than ever, despite what you want to spout off. Again, I tell everyone that LE pieces are not the safe pieces. 011, 035, 055 are the safe RM's--it's simple. I told you not to buy RM if you're flipping out of it as well. We all make mistakes when buying watches, it's ok.

Anyway enjoy the vintage (you need to relax a little--seem stressed).

Have fun chasing your women...

[QueueCumber]

RM is not safe. I have friends that work at dealerships and in the used market. These supposedly "safe" pieces are being offered at huge discounts new to people like me when I've asked (close to dealer price). Likewise, people in the grey market are flipping at a loss in many cases just to get the pieces out of their stock...

It's sort of funny that you're saying it's safe, and then at the end of your last post you're saying it's not safe if you plan on selling the pieces. So basically, it's not safe....

[texex91]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

RM is not safe. I have friends that work at dealerships and in the used market. These supposedly "safe" pieces are being offered at huge discounts new to people like me when I've asked (close to dealer price). Likewise, people in the grey market are flipping at a loss in many cases just to get the pieces out of their stock...

It's sort of funny that you're saying it's safe, and then at the end of your last post you're saying it's not safe if you plan on selling the pieces. So basically, it's not safe....

Not worth debating as you have one track mind. If you read my post it's the LIMITED EDITIONS that one has to buy right. You didn't and you're angry. RM isn't for you--big deal.

Any watch brand you have to know what you're doing on the front end buy side. Doesn't matter the make--if you overpay on the front you will get hurt on the back.

RM isn't for everyone, just like vintage isn't.

Take care.

[KarlS]

SJX: In the recent Vontobel report on watchmaking, you name Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille and Hublot as enjoying positive growth, unlike their competitors, citing their small exposure to China as a crucial reason. Do you have other thoughts on these three success stories?

RW: All of them are in the top-end of the Swiss haute horlogerie in terms of pricing but also have a unique look in their watches, which is supported by successful marketing. Though in terms of pricing they are in the luxury part of the Swiss high-end universe, each has a totally different story.

AP has already a long-established reputation, whereas Hublot’s success story is less than 10 years old. In terms of units AP [Vontobel estimates 40,000 per year] and Hublot [estimate of 40,000] are comparable to each other, whereas Richard Mille [estimated at 3200] is much smaller but focuses even more at the top end of the watch industry

[martinr]

Karl, I read that report yesterday and it seemed spot on. Also, those three brands have a lot of celebrity ambassadors which makes a big difference. For me personally a watch with a celebrity or sports figures name on it is a turn off but apparently most of the world doesn't feel that way.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by KarlS

SJX: In the recent Vontobel report on watchmaking, you name Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille and Hublot as enjoying positive growth, unlike their competitors, citing their small exposure to China as a crucial reason. Do you have other thoughts on these three success stories?

RW: All of them are in the top-end of the Swiss haute horlogerie in terms of pricing but also have a unique look in their watches, which is supported by successful marketing. Though in terms of pricing they are in the luxury part of the Swiss high-end universe, each has a totally different story.

AP has already a long-established reputation, whereas Hublot’s success story is less than 10 years old. In terms of units AP [Vontobel estimates 40,000 per year] and Hublot [estimate of 40,000] are comparable to each other, whereas Richard Mille [estimated at 3200] is much smaller but focuses even more at the top end of the watch industry

Hit the nail on the head.

[lapince]

"All of them are in the top-end of the Swiss haute horlogerie in terms of pricing"

Really?? Not really following the Hublot pricing, but I had a feeling you could basically get for the same price, the same type of watch in RG from Hublot as the SS from AP, something changed? A friend's friend has a Big Bang in RG, he paid 25k for it, from the AD, not really AP pricing...

Also IMHO you don't have the RM prices in AP, what is the top end of haute horology in terms of pricing? Anything above 20k? It might be me but I have a hard time imagining these 3 brands on the same price level, for me they are totally different, one super expensive, one very expensive and one expensive...

My low experience with AP is with a ceramic diver, got 10% off, and from RM I just saw some at an AD, they had the 011 and 011 GMT, amongst other models, I was there to get my AP strap, I tried them and asked if they could make a discount, they said yes, since I didn't want to get one I didn't try to investigate, tried that at Patek for a Nautilus, had one on the wrist and the answer was no discount since huge waiting list, so not so hard to find them, but I do understand there is a ton of 011, maybe it wasn't the right ones, who knows.

I found them very well built, but too bulky for my taste, the same thing with 30-40% less thickness and it may have been different, I would have liked them...

I really like in pics the Nadal, the first one, less the second, and not the third, and also the Bubba, though having the name of a personality is something I would rather do without, still good looking watches, but basically that's about it, the other regular models are not great IMO, but if they're doing fine good for them...

About Hublot sure it's a well marketed product, nothing more, that some people like them why not, but seems to me that when you attain a certain horological knowledge, you have no interest for Hublot, and it's when you flip'em that it really hurts...

About the low exposure in China sure, don't know, what is strange though is that as far as I know, Hublot is very present in Russia and Ukraine, lots and lots of guys wearing them, and for the moment the only real deals I saw were in Russia, there is a real crisis there, hard to imagine Hublot not getting a big Blot because of that...

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by texex91

Not worth debating as you have one track mind. If you read my post it's the LIMITED EDITIONS that one has to buy right. You didn't and you're angry. RM isn't for you--big deal.

Any watch brand you have to know what you're doing on the front end buy side. Doesn't matter the make--if you overpay on the front you will get hurt on the back.

RM isn't for everyone, just like vintage isn't.

Take care.

You think you know what I'm feeling and thinking? To wit, you are not a mind reader, and you're too narcisstic to know my feelings. You're just plain wrong.

I'm not talking about the RM that I flipped, but the models you're claiming retain value. They just don't retain value. They're a huge loss for the customers that buy them.

People generally don't like arrogant elitist jerks. I guess that explains the supportive private messages I've received regarding our forum exchanges...