Is anyone buying now?

[Goonthree]

I am in Asia and Rolex manager says if we call someone with a hot watch let say 116500. They are coming in no matter what even if need to wear mask and safety suit.

[Plai]

In the event of mandatory quarantines, your SA won't even be at the shop checking their wait list and deciding who to call next.

[jerseyb]

If Rolex has to call you to make a sale the market is in trouble.

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[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by fed_fan

Think a lot of people here are projecting more wealth than they have.

This is a hell of an amusing place sometimes, in little ways that other forums aren't. At TRF it's never just "I had some time to kill at DFW", it's always "I was at the airport waiting to board my first class flight to Aspen." No one here spends vacation days at their in laws place, its always Antigua. Good ol' Rolex!

[avalvo]

It's way to early to tell what will happen. The US economy is about the strongest on the globe. China is in trouble. As this settles companies will shift capital and manufacturing to other supply chain locations. They will better manage this risk. And, so the cascading effects will begin. The Chinese middle class consume, who is definately over leveraged, will pull back. The economy and growth will falter. Trump will seize the advantage to push China further back on the ropes. And so it will be a long hard road back for China.

The Mid-East and Russia will suffer based on the price of oil, which will remain sticky to the downside.

Europe will feel the tightening grib of socialist policies in a low to no growth environment.

Demand for highly discretionary items like Rolex will go down for sure. It just takes time. And, supply will follow demand to the more robust geography. In this case the US, and a few other countries. That is when watches start showing up in display cases.



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[Monty22]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye1

True, but a smart investor knows that watches are not a good investment so probably not an issue.



I'm not looking for much right now, but if my AD happens to call me with one of my grails, I'm totally buying! (I'm not holding my breath)

Thank you


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[kalo925]

Originally Posted by avalvo

It's way to early to tell what will happen. The US economy is about the strongest on the globe. China is in trouble. As this settles companies will shift capital and manufacturing to other supply chain locations. They will better manage this risk. And, so the cascading effects will begin. The Chinese middle class consume, who is definately over leveraged, will pull back. The economy and growth will falter. Trump will seize the advantage to push China further back on the ropes. And so it will be a long hard road back for China.

The Mid-East and Russia will suffer based on the price of oil, which will remain sticky to the downside.

Europe will feel the tightening grib of socialist policies in a low to no growth environment.

Demand for highly discretionary items like Rolex will go down for sure. It just takes time. And, supply will follow demand to the more robust geography. In this case the US, and a few other countries. That is when watches start showing up in display cases.



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I think you are right on the mark. Hate to see any one group suffer, but in the end the fittest prevail I suppose. People that were playing the "it can only go up" game will be thinking twice about now.

[Boaters]

If you want it get it

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

This is a hell of an amusing place sometimes, in little ways that other forums aren't. At TRF it's never just "I had some time to kill at DFW", it's always "I was at the airport waiting to board my first class flight to Aspen." No one here spends vacation days at their in laws place, its always Antigua. Good ol' Rolex!

but is your watch and your car a balance!

[TurboTim14]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

This is a hell of an amusing place sometimes, in little ways that other forums aren't. At TRF it's never just "I had some time to kill at DFW", it's always "I was at the airport waiting to board my first class flight to Aspen." No one here spends vacation days at their in laws place, its always Antigua. Good ol' Rolex!

Rofl so true

[nick800]

Honestly, my enthusiasm has been tampered. People may we’ll be losing their jobs. Hype or not, the economic consequences are real. Thank

[jlovda]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

St. Augustine is beautiful! You want to get out of that? Haha.

St. Augustine is probably not the real problem. It's going through airports and being cramped in an airplane with 300 other people.

[jlovda]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

This is a hell of an amusing place sometimes, in little ways that other forums aren't. At TRF it's never just "I had some time to kill at DFW", it's always "I was at the airport waiting to board my first class flight to Aspen." No one here spends vacation days at their in laws place, its always Antigua. Good ol' Rolex!

This

[Randy63]

Originally Posted by fed_fan

Have to say the comments on this thread are fairly glib. Think a lot of people here are projecting more wealth than they have.

I believe you may be right about that.




This chart is very telling.

* I tried to provide a direct link to this chart but once linked it's put behind a pay wall. The income amounts are monthly.

[diverdoug]

I got the call on Thursday for a blue Sky-D (been waiting 3 years). An hour later it was on my wrist.

[outdoors_guy]

I suspect that quantiity demanded for watches from ADs at MSRP might not change much, but that is because the market clearing price for a lot of Rolexes is well above MSRP, and grey dealers are the ones selling at that price. A change in overall demand would be seen as a drop in the grey market prices long before we would see any change for the ADs.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by avalvo

It's way to early to tell what will happen. The US economy is about the strongest on the globe. China is in trouble. As this settles companies will shift capital and manufacturing to other supply chain locations. They will better manage this risk. And, so the cascading effects will begin. The Chinese middle class consume, who is definately over leveraged, will pull back. The economy and growth will falter. Trump will seize the advantage to push China further back on the ropes. And so it will be a long hard road back for China.

The Mid-East and Russia will suffer based on the price of oil, which will remain sticky to the downside.

Europe will feel the tightening grib of socialist policies in a low to no growth environment.

Demand for highly discretionary items like Rolex will go down for sure. It just takes time. And, supply will follow demand to the more robust geography. In this case the US, and a few other countries. That is when watches start showing up in display cases.



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Dead nuts. It’s corona correction season y’all.


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[garyk]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Bought a skydweller black dial today

Cool, I want one. Hope my portfolio recovers someday so I can buy one 😷

[Rado63]

Rolex first registered the brand in 1908 and since then has survived two world wars, and multiple recessions in the economies around the world. They will continue to create demand and reduce supply. Sell to the existing customer base and cultivate new clients waiting on their lists.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by diverdoug

I got the call on Thursday for a blue Sky-D (been waiting 3 years). An hour later it was on my wrist.

Wow, one of the coolest watches ever...

[tle156]

Originally Posted by tla

Good to know. I was going to visit in April of this year. Hopefully you aren’t stuck there.


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Actually I am Vietnamese living there so I am officially stuck here
At the moment, the Vietnamese Government will temporarily suspend visa exemption for citizens of 8 European countries including the UK and France, Germany, Spain, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden. If you want to make sure about the situation here upon your arrival, let me know in advance of your departure date.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by avalvo

It's way to early to tell what will happen. The US economy is about the strongest on the globe. China is in trouble. As this settles companies will shift capital and manufacturing to other supply chain locations. They will better manage this risk. And, so the cascading effects will begin. The Chinese middle class consume, who is definately over leveraged, will pull back. The economy and growth will falter. Trump will seize the advantage to push China further back on the ropes. And so it will be a long hard road back for China.

The Mid-East and Russia will suffer based on the price of oil, which will remain sticky to the downside.

Europe will feel the tightening grib of socialist policies in a low to no growth environment.

Demand for highly discretionary items like Rolex will go down for sure. It just takes time. And, supply will follow demand to the more robust geography. In this case the US, and a few other countries. That is when watches start showing up in display cases.



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Tell that to the 1000 pt drop we’re going to see tomorrow. We must be living in a different country because we entered a bear market today and this is just the beginning. I’m sorry but I make a great living but I don’t care if I have a box of cash under my mattress, I’m not buying a 10k watch even at retail in this environment. Things are going to get really bad.

[DJ39]

I will tell you this, people are posting Rolex’s on Offer Up straight from the AD

The advertisements saying this:

Waited on list for two years, picked up today from AD, selling white dial Daytona for 23k

Or this one

just picked up Pepsi GMT from AD, selling for 18k , I am not kidding

The flippers don’t care about corona virus or the economy, if they can’t get 23k, they will take a little less but still make out like a bandits

Flippers do not have overhead, so I do not expect any changes at the ADs


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[IndianRider]

Believe me, we’re buying

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

Tell that to the 1000 pt drop we’re going to see tomorrow. We must be living in a different country because we entered a bear market today and this is just the beginning. I’m sorry but I make a great living but I don’t care if I have a box of cash under my mattress, I’m not buying a 10k watch even at retail in this environment. Things are going to get really bad.

Things will get bad for a moment but China is already on containment mode. Let’s keep this in perspective—that’s a country of 1.4 b people. We are 360m plus and a few hundred people have it. You should be shitting your pants over influenza A, it’s far more dangerous statically—but nobody does because the media darling is corona.

Everyone needs to screw their heads on again and get some perspective. Does that mean this is a joke? Absolutely not, but this isn’t going to turn into the apocalypse.


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[Bladeshot]

I bought a pre-owned yachtmaster today.

[kalo925]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

Tell that to the 1000 pt drop we’re going to see tomorrow. We must be living in a different country because we entered a bear market today and this is just the beginning. I’m sorry but I make a great living but I don’t care if I have a box of cash under my mattress, I’m not buying a 10k watch even at retail in this environment. Things are going to get really bad.

I don't think you comprehended his post very well.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Things will get bad for a moment but China is already on containment mode. Let’s keep this in perspective—that’s a country of 1.4 b people. We are 360m plus and a few hundred people have it. You should be shitting your pants over influenza A, it’s far more dangerous statically—but nobody does because the media darling is corona.

Everyone needs to screw their heads on again and get some perspective. Does that mean this is a joke? Absolutely not, but this isn’t going to turn into the apocalypse.


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A 1000+ people have it because we only test a 1-200 a day. There’s a difference between saying only 1000 have it after we have tested 100s of thousands and only a few thousand tested. Doesn’t have to be the apocalypse to destroy several years of a bull market.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

A 1000+ people have it because we only test a 1-200 a day. There’s a difference between saying only 1000 have it after we have tested 100s of thousands and only a few thousand tested. Doesn’t have to be the apocalypse to destroy several years of a bull market.

Again, perspective. Less than 10 years ago the market floated around 13000 and this year it has been as high as 29,5.

Your bull market of 23 thousand is still higher than it was for 2017 and most of 2018.

If you’re 75 and on a fixed income you’re taking a beating if you’re 45 and on this forum you’re going to ok bud.


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[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Again, perspective. Less than 10 years ago the market floated around 13000 and this year it has been as high as 29,5.

Your bull market of 23 thousand is still higher than it was for 2017 and most of 2018.

If you’re 75 and on a fixed income you’re taking a beating if you’re 45 and on this forum you’re going to ok bud.


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Your bear*


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