Prices will deflate in the Rolex Bubble

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by newu5er

Neil, this also gave me a chuckle because you know there are plenty of people with high post counts that only post garbage.

You don't say?

[BroncoOne]

No one can call the market or the economy as a whole even in a single country, let alone the globe, especially the self described "experts."

That said, looking at history MAY be helpful. However, predicting niche markets like watches or other luxury goods purchased (mostly) with disposable income would lead me to look at individual changes in disposable income.

In the US, it is increasing for most Americans that buy luxury goods. The virus panic is of course affecting Asian country citizens and the ultimate effect is still uncertain, but I assure you that a Hong Kong banker of your choice is still making deals and raking in money, even if he or she won't stroll outside the office or home office to buy a latte at Luckin or Starbucks. It hurts those retailers. As we know, watch retailers aren't dependent on retail visits to sell Rolexes or other high end watches.

And let's never forget the world is full of people that are willing to pay extra to avoid in inconveneience or risk. Every first class section on every flight that I've taken in the last 12 months have been full.There are construction cranes everywhere that I go in the US, even secondary markets. The economy is jet fuel on fire right now and a US-India trade deal will pur gas on that.

Yes, China is a huge market, but so is India.

[mykii]

Originally Posted by jets

Luxury brands want higher prices for image, brand identity, snob factor or whatever. They laugh at these boards when people harp about prices - they're the buyers they don't want. There's a wide world of watches dive in.

There is some truth to this.

[Lemonvr6]

is the the grumpy old men thread of the day?

[jets]

Think about it. It’s a luxury watch brand and people constantly act like going to the AD is like being at Costco looking for the deal of the week. It’s my opinion that if the extra grand or whatever for your watch is that big of a deal than maybe watches in this price range shouldn’t be on your radar at all. Rolex has created this ‘shortage’ environment to reduce the possibility for buyers to shop around and get better deals (like in the past) so that once the opportunity is there they’ll have no choice but to pull the trigger buying at full pop. Kind of brilliant.

One of my friends is very careful with his money and when he finally got the call for a sub he called my in a panic about dropping all that coin. I said just go buy it now. You’ll regret not getting it; looking forward to this for months as you have. I said if you change your mind I’ll take it, you won’t lose money. He is still over the moon about the watch. Everyone is happy and no one is starving.

Enjoy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

Well, here's one aficionado, who has no interest at all in any "potential short-term economical upside."

Maybe, "...most of the members here wouldn't be collecting if there wasn't a short term economical upside..., but there was a time when that wasn't so.

I look forward to the day when the speculators move on the next hot thing and leave the board to those who really appreciate the brand and love our watches for the joy they bring us instead of some short-term financial gain.

This board was a lot more fun before the nicknamers and the hustlers dominated.

Could not agree more.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Yes, China is a huge market, but so is India.

MMM. If memory serves, China's GDP is about 5 times that of India.

[Santiago79]

Too exhausting

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

MMM. If memory serves, China's GDP is about 5 times that of India.

Probably true, even with CHina's economy contracting pre-virus while India grows (still a long way to go).

My main point was that there are growing numbers of people with additional disposable income. Luxury goods like Rolex are typically bought by people with disposable income and that population is growing, not shrinking.

[WatchLurv]

...Someone from the US just wrote this. It's been downward slope since June 2019. I know there isn't an actual place for knowing the real grey prices, but if you know, then you know, and the prices are set one place in this world by grey dealers.

Originally Posted by jets

Think about it. It’s a luxury watch brand and people constantly act like going to the AD is like being at Costco looking for the deal of the week. It’s my opinion that if the extra grand or whatever for your watch is that big of a deal than maybe watches in this price range shouldn’t be on your radar at all. Rolex has created this ‘shortage’ environment to reduce the possibility for buyers to shop around and get better deals (like in the past) so that once the opportunity is there they’ll have no choice but to pull the trigger buying at full pop. Kind of brilliant.

One of my friends is very careful with his money and when he finally got the call for a sub he called my in a panic about dropping all that coin. I said just go buy it now. You’ll regret not getting it; looking forward to this for months as you have. I said if you change your mind I’ll take it, you won’t lose money. He is still over the moon about the watch. Everyone is happy and no one is starving.

Enjoy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bingo. They also got to control the revenue of the AD. Certain ADs back in the days would only offer -10% off SS whilst others would do -20. Now they all do 0% discount. You'd go to a grey and get yours for -25% as they'd get the top % margin on their watch or find the AD that would.

[alika]

bruh

[Coolex]

DOW DOWN 1000+ Points so far! Looking good!

[danny1305]

People celebrating losing a bunch in the stock market just to POSSIBLY get a couple bucks off the price of a watch. What great logic

[Dlong]

Originally Posted by danny1305

People celebrating losing a bunch in the stock market just to POSSIBLY get a couple bucks off the price of a watch. What great logic

Depends on your age. If your 40 years old and 25 years away from retirement, its great since your 401K will be buying low. If you're in you're 60's , not so much.

I think a lot of people would just love to see the grays get burned. Remember, pigs get fed, hogs go to slaughter. And they have been quite the hogs.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by danny1305

People celebrating losing a bunch in the stock market just to POSSIBLY get a couple bucks off the price of a watch. What great logic

That is what this forum has become, or they wish for more illness around the world.

[Coolex]

Originally Posted by danny1305

People celebrating losing a bunch in the stock market just to POSSIBLY get a couple bucks off the price of a watch. What great logic

Plenty of people with nothing in the market just waiting around for a recession before they jump in.

[Dlong]

The three “B”s, balls, brains and a bank roll. That’s what it’s takes to make money. If was was younger with cash, I’d be hoping for 2009 all over again.

[smohr33]

Originally Posted by Coolex

Plenty of people with nothing in the market just waiting around for a recession before they jump in.

Ah yes, the people with working crystal balls.

A fools game, would hate to share with them the amount they’ve missed out on while waiting.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by beshannon

That is what this forum has become, or they wish for more illness around the world.

Be careful guys, the man will shut this thread down any minute...

[Xyza0722]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

Well, here's one aficionado, who has no interest at all in any "potential short-term economical upside."

Maybe, "...most of the members here wouldn't be collecting if there wasn't a short term economical upside..., but there was a time when that wasn't so.

I look forward to the day when the speculators move on the next hot thing and leave the board to those who really appreciate the brand and love our watches for the joy they bring us instead of some short-term financial gain.

This board was a lot more fun before the nicknamers and the hustlers dominated.

+1

[Boba Fett]

I don't think there is a shortage. I think there has been a massive growth in demand and Rolex has not increased supply.
Due to their business model, not having shareholders to please, they took the long view and knew the good times would come to an end eventually. Selling a million watches a year that sell out is better than the problem Cartier had buying back and destroying stock that wasn't shifting.
Of course they could have changed around which models they made in great number, Daytona over datejust, but where would the long term fun in that be?
If the world economy tanks Rolex will survive quite happily. If Rolex doesn't survive we can look forward to our watches outliving us but with 3d printed parts in them to keep them going.
Enjoy your watches and investments, I hope there different things.

[spersky]

Looks like I was ahead of the curve on this one. I just looked at the old posts, and it is interesting and sad to see how the situation has changed in the world economy. Does anyone now think that grey market price will not crash?

[mjr24]

I don't think it will.....this is REALLY a temporary thing I feel. Yes, temporary may mean a few months.......but it will eventually get under control. I just feel this is different than the housing collapse or 9/11.....

I just don't see people ditching Rolexes for cheaper due to this. Grays will hold on for awhile at current prices....and then I think this coronavirus situation will be less "unknown" and things will get back to normal.

[Harry-57]

The grey market has been good to me over the years. Sure, Rolex is upside down. That's unusual, not the norm, market wide.

I wouldn't want anyone who has thrown their all into building a business to go bust just to save me a few quid. That's a shitty mentality. But if the current situations burns and kills off opportunistic dabblers who think it is easy, or the sellers whose greed has put them in precarious territory, then the sooner the better. It's just an adjustment. And if you're in the margin you're going to be "adjusted".

I expect the ethical, well established, grey traders will welcome such a clearing out of the amateurs and the revoltingly greedy, as much as anyone.

[Seaborn]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

The grey market has been good to me over the years. Sure, Rolex is upside down. That's unusual, not the norm, market wide.

I wouldn't want anyone who has thrown their all into building a business to go bust just to save me a few quid. That's a shitty mentality. But if the current situations burns and kills off opportunistic dabblers who think it is easy, or the sellers whose greed has put them in precarious territory, then the sooner the better. It's just an adjustment. And if you're in the margin you're going to be "adjusted".

I expect the ethical, well established, grey traders will welcome such a clearing out of the amateurs and the revoltingly greedy, as much as anyone.

Yup

[RolyMoly]

Originally Posted by MattyL147

You heard it here first ladies and gents...

Lol

[Starwalker]

Or maybe the fed injects 1 trillion dollars into the markets and nothing happens!