Is the Bubble Bursting

[Muzikman]

Originally Posted by ndong

No purchase history and first time walking into the boutique. Granted it was my 40th birthday and the rep I was talking to at my boutique surprised me with it when I was thinking I’d have to wait a year or so.

What? How? Seems unbelievable! When I went to my AD a couple of days back, they said, they’ve stopped taking orders for any watch. Only fulfilling past orders of people who’ve paid 50% advance and waiting from six months or more! The only watch they had was a Yachtmaster40 in rose gold they said, which also got picked couple of days back. You really got lucky! Damn lucky!


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[Muzikman]

Originally Posted by VG10

First post for me….. this exact thing happened to me today. Walked in, no purchase history and they sold me a sub no date. I almost fell off the chair.

This seems a little unbelievable now. You’re kidding right? Which country and place is this rare phenomenon happening?


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[bob sims]

I think it safe to say that any "bubble" has only grown exponentially this calendar year.

[VG10]

Originally Posted by Muzikman

This seems a little unbelievable now. You’re kidding right? Which country and place is this rare phenomenon happening?


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This is absolutely true…… today in NJ at around noon. I’m still in shock

[TheVTCGuy]

I walked in to my AD today and picked up a Rainbow Daytona, a Meteorite Daytona, three GMTs and two Subs; all at a 30% discount.






What?……

[DRS Enabled]

Originally Posted by 2loaded

Ban

Lol, that one really went over your head huh?

[Boaters]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

Have you seen prices. They are going up. I was told expect higher aftermarket prices in the future

I would have to agree..

[Bill11783]

Walked into my AD today and saw the usual empty cases…

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Mendota

As they say, be careful what you wish for. The same market conditions that could result in that scenario would likely wreak havoc on the financial markets at the same time. So your 20% discount on the Rolex could represent a much larger haircut off the rest of your capital on a larger scale. I'd rather keep my capital and patiently wait my turn for the Rolex I want at MSRP.

I can see where you are coming from but the correlation between Rolex's availability, macroeconomy and other asset prices are not so straightforward imo. Sport Rolex only became harder to obtain from AD since 3 years ago and we have large parallel periods of good economic runs and good availability of Sport Rolex prior to that. I'm not wishing for the economy to tank but wishing for sports watches to be more available at the same time (hopefully buyers mass migrate to other asset classes or develop an interest in other wearables/hobbies, who knows?)

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I can see where you are coming from but the correlation between Rolex's availability, macroeconomy and other asset prices are not so straightforward imo. Sport Rolex only became harder to obtain from AD since 3 years ago and we have large parallel periods of good economic runs and good availability of Sport Rolex prior to that. I'm not wishing for the economy to tank but wishing for sports watches to be more available at the same time (hopefully buyers mass migrate to other asset classes or develop an interest in other wearables/hobbies, who knows?)

Yeah, I totally get it and actually agree. I've been on the boards and stopping into Rolex ADs since the '90s and it does seem like a lot of this new scarcity phenomenon is from the Instagramers and Robin Hood sh#t coin speculators shifting over to easy bucks with flipping watches. I would also like them to move on to other opportunities.

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[m3tek44]

100+ comments still no pics? humm....

[ndrs63]

It’s all a dream (even the OPs Sub)


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[1sttimerolex]

Originally Posted by Mendota

Yeah, I totally get it and actually agree. I've been on the boards and stopping into Rolex ADs since the '90s and it does seem like a lot of this new scarcity phenomenon is from the Instagramers and Robin Hood sh#t coin speculators shifting over to easy bucks with flipping watches. I would also like them to move on to other opportunities.

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NFT's? But perhaps they want some tangible item that they can actually physically hold.

[ndong]

Originally Posted by m3tek44

100+ comments still no pics? humm....

Plain Jane no date sub that I picked up Friday no wait, no purchase history.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by 1sttimerolex

NFT's? But perhaps they want some tangible item that they can actually physically hold.

Ha ha, yes. I listen to a lot of podcasts that interview various hedge fund managers and traders, and the fixed income guys and Bitcoin/blockchain experts they interview all laugh and jokingly refer to these outliers as sh#t coins.

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[Madman37]

Originally Posted by ndong

No purchase history and first time walking into the boutique. Granted it was my 40th birthday and the rep I was talking to at my boutique surprised me with it when I was thinking I’d have to wait a year or so.

It’s one of the most dullest watches in the line up so probably nobody wanted it

[majidessa]

Originally Posted by Madman37

It’s one of the most dullest watches in the line up so probably nobody wanted it

Seriously!

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[Booth9999]

Originally Posted by Madman37

It’s one of the most dullest watches in the line up so probably nobody wanted it

Don’t be so hard on yourself.

[Madman37]

It must be though one of the ones people don’t want there are three threads on the forum where people got them quickly. Many Rolex watches on here are criticised for being boring, not having a date being hard to read etc. This is one Rolex that has all those deficiencies rolled into one watch.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by ndong

Plain Jane no date sub that I picked up Friday no wait, no purchase history.

Those wrists look suspiciously like the wrists of Door Dash's CEO.....

Congrats on the pickup and the wait time!

[ajw45]

There's a "common prosperity" push in China to reduce luxury / conspicuous consumption. China is about 1/3 of the market so that is going to have a huge impact. I wouldn't call it the bubble bursting but it's definitely going to mean more supply for other regions.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by ajw45

There's a "common prosperity" push in China to reduce luxury / conspicuous consumption. China is about 1/3 of the market so that is going to have a huge impact. I wouldn't call it the bubble bursting but it's definitely going to mean more supply for other regions.

Not saying your wrong as it seems like a lot of sub incomings but just curious as to how you got that info? I can believe it also because it seems they are worse off in the rat race to get rolex, Louis, Cartier and whatever else they buy

[10XRolex]

Originally Posted by VG10

This is absolutely true…… today in NJ at around noon. I’m still in shock

Where are all the bad jokes about NJ now.

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[amphr1]

Originally Posted by ndong

Plain Jane no date sub that I picked up Friday no wait, no purchase history.

Wow! congrats!

[TomCarter]

We’re acting like acquiring a ND sub without wait time is the equivalent of winning the lotto or calling a Straight Superfecta in a single wager at the Kentucky Derby. It’s not…

[lacroix]

some areas are worse than others. Here in SoCal, you have better chances in winning the lottery or get stricken by lightning before you get a Steel Rolex of any kind. Every time I walk into an AD, they make me feel like a beggar even though I haven't said a word by just simply watching me walk over to the Rolex section of the store... they probably say, "oh look at this poor soul..." LOL

[S7gpt]

the more I read on this forum the more I want this bubble to burst, I wouldn't mind having the ability to walk in and buy the watch I want and loose say 20% on the value after should I ever decide to sell...

[nyc10ken]

Originally Posted by ajw45

There's a "common prosperity" push in China to reduce luxury / conspicuous consumption. China is about 1/3 of the market so that is going to have a huge impact. I wouldn't call it the bubble bursting but it's definitely going to mean more supply for other regions.

That government also wants the populous to have more kids, let's see how all that works out. Past few decades the onus has been on economic growth first and foremost, can't change that mindset so easily. I would wager the demand from Asia will be there even longer than other regions.

[ndrs63]

Originally Posted by lacroix

some areas are worse than others. Here in SoCal, you have better chances in winning the lottery or get stricken by lightning before you get a Steel Rolex of any kind. Every time I walk into an AD, they make me feel like a beggar even though I haven't said a word by just simply watching me walk over to the Rolex section of the store... they probably say, "oh look at this poor soul..." LOL

If you are “poor”, that is


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[mike morris]

December 2020 in my AD in NY , was 3-5 different womens size , one DD40 with diamonds bezel, and TT black sub41, I try but not my style. Summer time same AD 2-3 women size and one DD36 YG white face. Last Sunday EMPTY ! No one watch !