End of Crypto?

[OmegsXWatches]

Following 10 years of crypto history. Bitcoin has significantly gone up, then dropped back down. And usually it will stay stagnant for a few months to a few years. Then will spike up.

So if history follows itself, the next push will surpass 60k and possibility hit 100k.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by OmegsXWatches

Following 10 years of crypto history. Bitcoin has significantly gone up, then dropped back down. And usually it will stay stagnant for a few months to a few years. Then will spike up.

So if history follows itself, the next push will surpass 60k and possibility hit 100k.

Or it could have never recovered from $5-6k in 2020 if it wasn’t for fed injection, and this was a fluke to revive it one last time…

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by OmegsXWatches

Following 10 years of crypto history. Bitcoin has significantly gone up, then dropped back down. And usually it will stay stagnant for a few months to a few years. Then will spike up.

So if history follows itself, the next push will surpass 60k and possibility hit 100k.

Next stop zero.

[JoeJoeBobo]

This Larry David FTX Super Bowl ad is now funnier then ever!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noekVG8XLQI

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

The comparison to the Madoff ponzi scheme definitely came to mind.

FTX gave to DEMs and helped funnel currency to Ukraine. He's Teflon like the Clintons. Good ol' Bernie didn't first ensure he's deeply connected before....

[JoeJoeBobo]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

FTX gave to DEMs and helped funnel currency to Ukraine. He's Teflon like the Clintons. Good ol' Bernie didn't first ensure he's deeply connected before....

This is not the the direction the money took. US taxpayer funds given to Ukraine we’re then invested in FTX which we’re then given to the Democratic Party. Money laundering in its truest form by not one but two governments.

[SDGT3]

At least he learned you must first wet the beak of those who can control your future. As long as he doesn't talk, there won't be a mysterious "accident".

[enjoythemusic]

Back to crypto, the system needs to increase their balance sheets at higher and higher rates. That's a feature, not a bug, of the mathematics of their consumption-based system. I'd say crypto and digital currencies are the future, but what do you think your credit card is and other forms of digital payment today. The parasitic fees and slow transfer times with some transactions of their system today could be optimized.

It doesn't change the fact any excuse that provides a new way to expand currency is desirable because their system is gravely at risk without it imho.

[mountainjogger]

Great to see politics being kept out of the forum.

[SDGT3]

I remember back 10 years ago a story about Silk Road. With all this FTX talk, the following was just swept over but happened just last week. Interesting read.

https://www.bakerlaw.com/alerts/doj-...web-fraud-case

[Mifune]

Pomp absolutely destroys CNBC host on the live business show today. It got a bit heated for a while as the host tried to use vacant logic... it didn't work.
Stop being ignorant, it's embarrassing.

[JoeJoeBobo]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Great to see politics being kept out of the forum.

TRF has moderators to moderate.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by Mifune

Pomp absolutely destroys CNBC host on the live business show today. It got a bit heated for a while as the host tried to use vacant logic... it didn't work.
Stop being ignorant, it's embarrassing.

I got something totally different from that interview.

6:14-6:55 - He mentions that BTC has risen more than Berkshire in the past 10 years. I'm certain that is true, but BRK is never going to drop 75% in less than a year and if it does, it would be a shock. No one is shocked BTC dropped that much. Further, he says that BTCers said during the pandemic that devaluing currency would be a problem and you would want to go to BTC for safety. First, most economist said that both monetary and fiscal policies of the time would result in high inflation, that's not news. The twist is that the run to safety of BTC or other cryptos never materialized as he says. He never speaks of the correlation of inflation with the drop in BTC which is EXACTLY what the BTCers say wouldn't happen! Anyone who listed to this guy lost their shorts.

10:55 - 11:08 - AP mentions that 67% of BTC is still in the hands of it's owners. That's because they probably bought at extremely high levels and want to see if it will go back up.

15:32 - 16:20 - AP says that people who are holding BTC do not have an errosion of confidence and "they don't care about price". I highly doubt that.

This guy is nothing but a polished used car salesman and reminds me of the stock brokers with a hot stock tip of yesteryear.

The bottomline is if it's so great, why are you trying to convince me that's it's so great? Do your thing, but I won't be involved in the reinflating of the ponzi scheme.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I got something totally different from that interview.

6:14-6:55 - He mentions that BTC has risen more than Berkshire in the past 10 years. I'm certain that is true, but BRK is never going to drop 75% in less than a year and if it does, it would be a shock. No one is shocked BTC dropped that much. Further, he says that BTCers said during the pandemic that devaluing currency would be a problem and you would want to go to BTC for safety. First, most economist said that both monetary and fiscal policies of the time would result in high inflation, that's not news. The twist is that the run to safety of BTC or other cryptos never materialized as he says. He never speaks of the correlation of inflation with the drop in BTC which is EXACTLY what the BTCers say wouldn't happen! Anyone who listed to this guy lost their shorts.

10:55 - 11:08 - AP mentions that 67% of BTC is still in the hands of it's owners. That's because they probably bought at extremely high levels and want to see if it will go back up.

15:32 - 16:20 - AP says that people who are holding BTC do not have an errosion of confidence and "they don't care about price". I highly doubt that.

This guy is nothing but a polished used car salesman and reminds me of the stock brokers with a hot stock tip of yesteryear.

The bottomline is if it's so great, why are you trying to convince me that's it's so great? Do your thing, but I won't be involved in the reinflating of the ponzi scheme.

i don't think btc is a ponzi but i also don't blame anyone for having their own opinion on it. at the end of the day it is a highly speculative asset (for now) and i can see both sides of the argument

to your point about inflation though, look at gold. it was the worst performing asset in the past decade +/- and when the perfect time came for it to shine (high inflation, russian invasion, multiple currencies collapsing) it underperformed the S&P and probably even apple, so it's hard to expect the inflation narrative to help btc there. nothing this year made sense and you even had bonds collapsing when they were supposed to be the biggest safe haven assets

if we look back, btc was 6-8k before covid, 10k in mid 2020 and it's now 17k 1 year into a historically terrible market and after the second biggest exchange collapsing. not too bad overall unless you just compare it to a year ago. technically it was a "hedge" against inflation if you bought in anticipation of high inflation during 2020 lol, and realistically it would be 25-30 after what we've seen in the stock market from thursday-today had ftx not collapsed last week. time will tell what happens to it but ultimately i think we see new all time highs at some point after the next halving

you're right about pomp though, don't really think he's well liked among the crypto community

[SDGT3]

Agree that BTC will survive, ETH, but a lot will not.

[denmanproject]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Next stop zero.

To be fair that’s what they say every time it crashes yet keeps hitting new highs

[77T]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I got something totally different from that interview.

6:14-6:55 - He mentions that BTC has risen more than Berkshire in the past 10 years. I'm certain that is true, but BRK is never going to drop 75% in less than a year and if it does, it would be a shock. No one is shocked BTC dropped that much. Further, he says that BTCers said during the pandemic that devaluing currency would be a problem and you would want to go to BTC for safety. First, most economist said that both monetary and fiscal policies of the time would result in high inflation, that's not news. The twist is that the run to safety of BTC or other cryptos never materialized as he says. He never speaks of the correlation of inflation with the drop in BTC which is EXACTLY what the BTCers say wouldn't happen! Anyone who listed to this guy lost their shorts.

10:55 - 11:08 - AP mentions that 67% of BTC is still in the hands of it's owners. That's because they probably bought at extremely high levels and want to see if it will go back up.

15:32 - 16:20 - AP says that people who are holding BTC do not have an errosion of confidence and "they don't care about price". I highly doubt that.

This guy is nothing but a polished used car salesman and reminds me of the stock brokers with a hot stock tip of yesteryear.

The bottomline is if it's so great, why are you trying to convince me that's it's so great? Do your thing, but I won't be involved in the reinflating of the ponzi scheme.

I saw that same interview.

It seemed to be two different conversations - one about blockchain BTC valuation - and one about exchanges tanking without circuit breakers, regulators or the like (which shakes confidence in crypto flippers).

Almost like we collectors who buy Rolex to hold long term vs flippers who churn.

The next BTC mining reward halving is now expected to take place in March 2024. But if more effective mining begins, it could be only a year away.

Let’s see how that affects the long-term holders. In past halvings, a boom cycle ended with higher prices than before the event.

This stuff is like quicksilver for the unwitting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Zartan]

Bitcoin resembles religion in a few ways; the more folks believe it’s true the more real it actually becomes. Kinda like reaffirming it’s existence. You also really can’t argue it’s validity because it’s so opaque. Could use more regulation to remove the bad apples also.

I’m not very religious but was hopeful for an alternative worldwide currency, I can’t see how cryptos current form can really survive this sort of confidence crisis.

Very interesting thread.

[pearson1995]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

The bottomline is if it's so great, why are you trying to convince me that's it's so great? Do your thing, but I won't be involved in the reinflating of the ponzi scheme.

Well no one is trying to convince you, the information is out there and you can decide.

Out of interest, Ponzi schemes follow the bigger fool hypothesis, where as long as someone is willing to pay more than you did you can make money.

Bitcoin is a store of value that offers no rent or dividends. Hence why you say it’s a Ponzi scheme as you rely on someone else buying it off you for more money.

So what about gold, non dividend stocks like Amazon or even a Rolex Daytona (although you can wear and enjoy it so that kind of is your dividened)

But people trying to make money on those 3…. Isn’t that as much a Ponzi scheme as Bitcoin..

[BLACKHORSE 6]

Originally Posted by pearson1995

Well no one is trying to convince you, the information is out there and you can decide.

Out of interest, Ponzi schemes follow the bigger fool hypothesis, where as long as someone is willing to pay more than you did you can make money.

Bitcoin is a store of value that offers no rent or dividends. Hence why you say it’s a Ponzi scheme as you rely on someone else buying it off you for more money.

So what about gold, non dividend stocks like Amazon or even a Rolex Daytona (although you can wear and enjoy it so that kind of is your dividened)

But people trying to make money on those 3…. Isn’t that as much a Ponzi scheme as Bitcoin..

I understand what you’re saying, which is my I don’t invest in commodities. A bar of gold, a barrel of oil, a lb of sugar, a pallet of lumber… all commodities that don’t yield anything and the only way to make money on them is to find someone that will pay a higher price for it tomorrow. Unless you’re dealing in large volumes at a trading desk or something like that, if you make any money it comes down to dumb luck and a bunch of market forces that you have no control over.

Many people put crypto currencies in the same category, but to me crypto is especially problematic. With those other commodity examples, at least there’s a physical asset that you can hold, keep and safeguard, but a digital ledger on a block chain just isn’t the same to me. It’s hard for me to see crypto currencies as a store of value. The nature of crypto also makes it easy for pump and dump schemes where a lot of people have been taken advantage of. Add into that the fact that it’s like the Wild West with no regulations and you get scenarios like FTX.

The only part of crypto currencies that hold any interest for me is the possibility to break free of fiat currencies that can be manipulated and inflated by central banks and politicians. But we are very far away from something like that happening and incidents like FTX make it less likely for crypto currencies to be widely accepted and/or implemented in peoples daily lives as an exchange for goods and services.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by BLACKHORSE 6

I understand what you’re saying, which is my I don’t invest in commodities. A bar of gold, a barrel of oil, a lb of sugar, a pallet of lumber… all commodities that don’t yield anything and the only way to make money on them is to find someone that will pay a higher price for it tomorrow. Unless you’re dealing in large volumes at a trading desk or something like that, if you make any money it comes down to dumb luck and a bunch of market forces that you have no control over.

Many people put crypto currencies in the same category, but to me crypto is especially problematic. With those other commodity examples, at least there’s a physical asset that you can hold, keep and safeguard, but a digital ledger on a block chain just isn’t the same to me. It’s hard for me to see crypto currencies as a store of value. The nature of crypto also makes it easy for pump and dump schemes where a lot of people have been taken advantage of. Add into that the fact that it’s like the Wild West with no regulations and you get scenarios like FTX.

The only part of crypto currencies that hold any interest for me is the possibility to break free of fiat currencies that can be manipulated and inflated by central banks and politicians. But we are very far away from something like that happening and incidents like FTX make it less likely for crypto currencies to be widely accepted and/or implemented in peoples daily lives as an exchange for goods and services.

[INC]

Originally Posted by BLACKHORSE 6

The only part of crypto currencies that hold any interest for me is the possibility to break free of fiat currencies that can be manipulated and inflated by central banks and politicians.

I basically understand this ideology, although I think it's more than futuristic. For example, why is it better if not a government but a mafia manipulates the value of a crypto? If we think about it more, if the stability is the goal, then it would also mean that the value of a crypto would have to increase annually in line with the rate of inflation. In this case crypto would be an instrument which, although low-risk, but would not yield either dividends or profit. And if all of this is added to the purchase and sale costs, the picture of stability is gone with the wind.

However, for me the more important question is; why would someone invest in an asset from which they expect neither profit nor dividends, since these assets' purpose is not to create any of these?

[Krash]

If you bought a modest $10,000 worth of Bitcoin when it was at parity with the US dollar, it would still be worth $167,260,000 today. (Note: That’s base on the price of Bitcoin as of the time I posted this.)

Many of those early adapters have cashed in long ago. When people say crypto is worthless, the problem with that argument is that the Lamborghinis, private jets, mansions and Patek Phillipes those folks have are real tangible assets. They are not an illusion.

With that said, if you didn’t invest early on, then you probably missed the boat (at least for now).



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pearson1995]

Originally Posted by INC

I basically understand this ideology, although I think it's more than futuristic. For example, why is it better if not a government but a mafia manipulates the value of a crypto? If we think about it more, if the stability is the goal, then it would also mean that the value of a crypto would have to increase annually in line with the rate of inflation. In this case crypto would be an instrument which, although low-risk, but would not yield either dividends or profit. And if all of this is added to the purchase and sale costs, the picture of stability is gone with the wind.

However, for me the more important question is; why would someone invest in an asset from which they expect neither profit nor dividends, since these assets' purpose is not to create any of these?

Why would someone invest in an asset which they expect neither profit nor dividends. Well it’s a way of storing wealth. Why do people then buy gold, same reason.

Also when you look at your other options. Money is loosing value to inflation. Property requires maintenance. Stocks carry risk. Gold is physical and you have to find someone to pay more than what you paid for it, it can be faked. And if a meteorite hit, the supply will be increased.

21 million, that’s all the BTC there will ever be. It’s not real though. You have to ask yourself. Are your dollars or pounds real?

When all other options loose you value over time. Bitcoin being stagnant is why it’s so attractive.

Problem is currently it’s so volatile. The world needs to work out its real price. Might be 0, might be 100,000. Place your bets.

[powerfunk]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Going to nuthin’ fast.

People were saying that here 10 years ago, too. Good thing I didn't listen to them

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by BLACKHORSE 6

The only part of crypto currencies that hold any interest for me is the possibility to break free of fiat currencies that can be manipulated and inflated by central banks and politicians. But we are very far away from something like that happening and incidents like FTX make it less likely for crypto currencies to be widely accepted and/or implemented in peoples daily lives as an exchange for goods and services.

If the goal is to be an alternative medium of exchange aside from fiat then it can't be regulated as once it's regulated then it's subject to the same manipulation from central banks and politicians. If it's not regulated, then we have the same issues we have today. It's a catch 22.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by huncho

i don't think btc is a ponzi but i also don't blame anyone for having their own opinion on it. at the end of the day it is a highly speculative asset (for now) and i can see both sides of the argument …

This

At the moment it’s only worth what the next person is willing to pay for it.

Until it’s regulated in some way, it’s not investable to me

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by powerfunk

People were saying that here 10 years ago, too. Good thing I didn't listen to them

Was there really BTC discussion here 10 years ago?

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Zartan

Bitcoin resembles religion in a few ways;

Very interesting thread.

My thought exactly. The value of crypto goes up the more people that believe in it. Belief and faith in the idea of crypto are necessary, as there is no tangible, touchable asset. Crypto enthusiasts, several of which are my friends, feel they possess special knowledge that the rest of us don’t, and they spend significant time and energy trying to educate the masses on what we are missing. Some are easily offended when their faith is questioned and interpret skepticism or doubt as an attack on their faith. The nearly miraculous aspect of the concept is frequently cited, ($10K becoming $167 million, water into wine.) And when predictions fail, the most faithful don’t walk away. They produce new predictions, similar to those who set a new date for the rapture when the current prediction fails, and they double down on their commitment. None of this is meant to be criticism. Just as I don’t berate religious people, I don’t crypto believers either. But the similarities are striking.

[offrdmania]

Everyone knows you never buy crypto on an exchange; you never really own the token. You need your own private wallet to hold your tokens and then no one can run away with your money.