Celebration 41mm scarcity - one per year?

[studioJ]

Trying to understand the scarcity of the Celebration 41mm OP and wondered if anybody had any thoughts?

AD (who is an old friend), mentioned they'll get only one in the next 12 months. What gives? Surely isn't a difficult dial to make? Is it some sort of bizarre attempt for Rolex to drive a hype piece, on their entry level product? Did they presume interest would be low?

Keen to hear thoughts!

[padi56]

Most ADs in the real world talk quite a bit of bullsh#it if you believe many on the net all Rolex watches are a scarce. Yet they still make and sell 900000 plus every year, most with the 32 series movement that some like to bash at every opportunity on forum.

[ArtNouveau]

I don’t believe one for the whole year unless that AD is about to get the axe. I do believe they are in relatively short supply for whatever reason. It is the first watch I’ve asked my SA for that he can’t give me any realistic prediction on. He knows I want one but can’t promise any timetable.

[codecow]

It’s more than that for sure across all sizes.

[CarlOver]

Originally Posted by padi56

Most ADs in the real world talk quite a bit of bullsh#it if you believe many on the net all Rolex watches are a scarce. Yet they still make and sell 900000 plus every year, most with the 32 series movement that some like to bash at every opportunity on forum.

I wonder what year was the last year that they produced 900,000 watches.

[studioJ]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I don’t believe one for the whole year unless that AD is about to get the axe. I do believe they are in relatively short supply for whatever reason. It is the first watch I’ve asked my SA for that he can’t give me any realistic prediction on. He knows I want one but can’t promise any timetable.

Just opened a new store, has got me everything I’ve ever asked for with a moderately short wait. Just don’t get the scarcity!

[studioJ]

Originally Posted by codecow

It’s more than that for sure across all sizes.

Yeah he was talking about the 41, think they’ve seen more 36 & 31

[TickTockChuck]

Selective scarcity creates more desire for the brand which is good for business. I think Rolex could create as many of any particular dial that they want. My 2 cents.

[Roger Lococco]

My local AD told me that this watch was only for mega-whales who are VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVIPs.

He recommended that I buy a gold women's AP with diamonds from their CPO program instead, as an alternative.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by CarlOver

I wonder what year was the last year that they produced 900,000 watches.

State of the Industry - Swiss Watchmaking in 2022" by the US company Morgan Stanley. As an investment banking firm, Morgan Stanley publishes a respected report every year that looks at the current state of the watchmaking industry. In the 2022 edition, a rough estimate of Rolex's annual production can be found, which is put at 1.05 million.

[CarlOver]

Originally Posted by padi56

Most ADs in the real world talk quite a bit of bullsh#it if you believe many on the net all Rolex watches are a scarce. Yet they still make and sell 900000 plus every year, most with the 32 series movement that some like to bash at every opportunity on forum.

Originally Posted by CarlOver

I wonder what year was the last year that they produced 900,000 watches.

Originally Posted by padi56

State of the Industry - Swiss Watchmaking in 2022" by the US company Morgan Stanley. As an investment banking firm, Morgan Stanley publishes a respected report every year that looks at the current state of the watchmaking industry. In the 2022 edition, a rough estimate of Rolex's annual production can be found, which is put at 1.05 million.

Thanks for the info but it doesn’t really answer the question. Based on what I have read Rolex had produced more than 900,000 watches for many, many years.

[Callmepeshy]

My AD gets two of the 41mm per year. Unsure why the low supply although would imagine it’s to keep it scarce and then discontinue sooner rather than later. Similar to the turquoise dial.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Callmepeshy

My AD gets two of the 41mm per year. Unsure why the low supply although would imagine it’s to keep it scarce and then discontinue sooner rather than later. Similar to the turquoise dial.

Most likely 2 per year get offered to a loyal customer**

The rest are sold through the back door. Have to keep the arbitrage in tact somehow! Keep the supply low at retail.


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[bogdoc]

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco

My local AD told me that this watch was only for mega-whales who are VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVIPs.

He recommended that I buy a gold women's AP with diamonds from their CPO program instead, as an alternative.

I am sure that regular people can get it too. It’s all about relationship with AD.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Most likely 2 per year get offered to a loyal customer**

The rest are sold through the back door. Have to keep the arbitrage in tact somehow! Keep the supply low at retail.


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i mean there are 65 listings on chrono24 for the 41 and 51 for the 36 (worldwide). figure 15-20% of those are fake listings so it's really not a lot. people love grey dealer conspiracy theories but i just don't see the backdoor theory here, it looks like they're actually just extremely low supply. for reference there are 1200 ceramic daytona listings (950 116500 + 250 126500) and that's nearly impossible to get at retail too

[bogdoc]

My AD told me the same thing. One 41mm per year.

[codecow]

I got the first 41 from my AD across all their stores. It was quite easy to get. When it was announced I asked for it and then it showed up.

[bogdoc]

Originally Posted by codecow

I got the first 41 from my AD across all their stores. It was quite easy to get. When it was announced I asked for it and then it showed up.

So, What do you have? Good relationship or vvvvvvvvvip status ;)

[codecow]

Originally Posted by bogdoc

So, What do you have? Good relationship or vvvvvvvvvip status ;)

Why not both?

[bogdoc]

Originally Posted by codecow

Why not both?

Love that!!

[enjoythemusic]

Thankfully and graciously elated my wife got her 36mm. Odds are absolutely zero chance of a 41mm for me. Wife loves loves loves it, she wears it daily and it really is the 'her' of timepieces (other than for formal, then the Lady Arpels Heures Florales 'animated' timepiece would be perfect for her).