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5 March 2024, 08:49 PM | #1 |
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Will The Bitcoin Rise… Rise The Watch Market?
Hi,
One variable for the rise of the watch market during the pandemic was arguably the rise of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is potentially days away from reaching it’s all time high. Will this have an impact on the watch market again… or has the decline in the market over the last 2 years made the ‘causal watch enthusiasts / crypto traders’ more sceptical and more conservative about watches, and the market this time around? |
5 March 2024, 09:39 PM | #2 |
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I doubt crypto will plug the watch market leak.
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5 March 2024, 09:45 PM | #3 |
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I personally think it will affect. As crypto, and markets in general, soar means more liquidity out there. Alot of the "hype" in the past years was due to younger newcomers to the watch market which a large portion get theirs funds from crypto. I do think the decline in the past 2 years was linked to the markets as liquidity ran out to make the bubble bigger.
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5 March 2024, 09:46 PM | #4 |
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I'm gonna say no based on my personal experience. I'm up x00% now and wouldn't think of pulling it out to buy a watch. I sold 3 nice watches and bought more GBTC in December/January.
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5 March 2024, 10:04 PM | #5 |
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@EEpro, congrats on the win Saturday night against Michigan state. Looking forward to see what Zach does in March madness
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5 March 2024, 10:35 PM | #6 |
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With prices down on watches and Crypto up the opportunity to diversify and buy watches seems like a good place to be for some of the Crypto profits. The key would be identifying the right watches and brands for a purchase. While watches have dipped that will only be for a moment and then they will creep back up. Maybe not to the levels we saw initially but one thing is for sure, nothing is going to get cheaper in the long run. Especially luxury watches.
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5 March 2024, 11:12 PM | #7 |
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The demographic that saw watches as a commodity are notoriously capricious and mercurial. I don’t think they return to watches in the large numbers that drove the bubble. That ship has sailed. They are on to the next big thing.
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5 March 2024, 11:38 PM | #8 |
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I noticed BLNR are sitting in classifieds here more now- there was one for $15,300 (cannot find now) and BNIB for $16,300. That is quite a dip off the highs of +$20k I remember seeing. Some dealers are still holding at the higher prices, so will be interesting to watch that as Watches & Wonders occurs- some might be waiting to see what new releases will show.
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6 March 2024, 01:43 AM | #9 |
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No, not this time!
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6 March 2024, 01:53 AM | #10 | |
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Quote:
I wouldn't read too much into that. They are flying off the shelves at the TS dealers. Selling on the forum means little since people don't trust peer to peer deals as much. I've routinely had watches sit unsold only to sell to a TS and they resell in 2 days at +$2,500.
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6 March 2024, 01:58 AM | #11 | |
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Quote:
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6 March 2024, 02:13 AM | #12 |
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the total value of the crypto market is about 2% of the stock market. While a couple of them have done great lately, the whole thing has probably generated about an approximate increase in wealth in the last year as Nvidia alone
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6 March 2024, 03:54 AM | #13 | |
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Quote:
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6 March 2024, 04:02 AM | #14 | |
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Quote:
You're replying too far from original topic so you can be right.
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6 March 2024, 04:25 AM | #15 |
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6 March 2024, 04:49 AM | #16 | |
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Will The Bitcoin Rise… Rise The Watch Market?
Quote:
Wrong. My comment was about BLNR and how quickly the TS here seem to move them. Nice try Boy I never noticed the market had slowed down. Thanks so much for educating me, Maleg.
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7 March 2024, 12:26 AM | #17 |
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I think a lot of the run up in the watch market over the past 4-5 years was crypto profit taking and people putting that funny money into a tangible asset.
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7 March 2024, 01:12 AM | #18 |
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Correlation not causation.
BTC and other speculative things all rose together with excess money supply. Simple. Money supply is retracting today but crypto has undergone speculative consolidation after majority of the market (by number) was decimated. So now most are back to speculating on the big two only (also happily the two I have owned for roughly a decade). Wait and see after the next halving event where it all settles… But I don’t see any meaningful impact on the watches market FROM BTC movements. |
7 March 2024, 04:25 AM | #19 |
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Will The Bitcoin Rise… Rise The Watch Market?
BTC is easier to invest in now. You can do so via ETFs. For example, IBIT from BlackRock. This introduces BTC to traditional investors (like me).
I’m guessing BTC will go higher because of this even though I think it’s been down the last couple of days. I think the prices will likely stabilize, too. Also, the equity markets are balling right now. I personally think all this is good for the luxury watch market, but we’ll know for sure one year from now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
7 March 2024, 10:33 PM | #20 | |
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Quote:
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7 March 2024, 11:43 PM | #21 |
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Will The Bitcoin Rise… Rise The Watch Market?
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7 March 2024, 11:59 PM | #22 |
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Can only speak for myself. Crypto is doing well and I want to buy a watch. Last year it was bad and I still wanted to buy a watch.
I’m a long term investor in my crypto. It could double today and I wouldn’t sell. But would probably buy a watch Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
8 March 2024, 09:23 AM | #23 |
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Human psychology is something that persists in a relatively unaltered manner from baseline... Idiots will be idiots. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes back, but only if the market goes "gangbusters" - and I'm not talking about a 2x from here. More like a 4 or 5x.
I'm waiting with my popcorn :D
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10 March 2024, 03:07 PM | #24 |
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I'd be rolling some into a Daytona if I'd got in last year. It's a bit late in the day for me now. Even though it'll most likely continue upward. Surprised there aren't more posts about exchanging for watches lately.
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26 April 2024, 03:05 AM | #25 |
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Remember this event, when Bitcoin was ~$3000 in 2017 and Federal Reserve Chairlady Janet Yellen (USA revolving door to the Treasury now)... Janet was busy reducing the value of the Federal Reserve Dollar Debt Note. Since 2017 to 2024, how is the buying power of Fed's Debt Dollar by comparison to BTC (or ETH)?
Today this sign sold for 16 BTC... and BTC is over $64,000. If you wisely bought Bitcoin when you saw the below, you did quite well today. PS: Today the S&P is merely ~5000, so just a double. _n2.jpg
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27 April 2024, 10:20 AM | #26 |
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The member who was telling us all how this was going to play out was ridiculed and no longer welcome here. Should've listened, learned, and profited.
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27 April 2024, 11:24 AM | #27 |
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Recently, it would seem the rise in BTC hasn't lifted the dip in watch prices during the same time period.
Until we understand the real levers that drive crypto value change, we don't have the data to link watch prices yet. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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27 April 2024, 03:00 PM | #28 |
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The recent bubble in watch prices had two legs.
1. Bitcoin 2. China China has not come back and there are no signs that it will in the immediate future. Some of the cheapest prices I am seeing on Chrono24 are from China, right now. So, the crystal ball is a little murky. |
27 April 2024, 10:30 PM | #29 |
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Anecdotal, sure, but the same crowd I know hyping and buying BTC (and other crypto) during the watch bubble (everything bubble) phase were buying meme stocks. GME, AMC, etc. Also the same crowd piling into Tesla at peak and ARKK.
The correlation with watch prices is because both were stoked by speculative fervor. Cryptocurrency is a sector that relies on a constant news cycle to support the market. Because there is no intrinsic value for majority of pricing. In fact, there is a clear negative in consuming resources. Unlike gold (also a consumer of resources) there is no permanence in terms of extracted value. If mining stops, the whole scheme falls apart rapidly. It is amusing to see “price targets” for BTC - baseless nonsense. Consider if large segments of the market (incredibly concentrated holdings) converted to transactable “medium of exchange” currency… the price would never hold. Again, lack of intrinsic price support. I bought in early. Lottery. |
27 April 2024, 10:49 PM | #30 |
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It’ll be rinse and repeat for a while I say.
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