When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

[soxfan39]

Originally Posted by Zsprings

Not exactly, but it would be great to just go to an AD and buy the model watch we want without having to wait more than a couple of weeks ! Discounted,.... of course!

No, actually it wouldn't be great because that would ultimately drive down prices. If Rolex is smart they will limit supply based on demand to keep prices and brand VALUE high.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by soxfan39

No, actually it wouldn't be great because that would ultimately drive down prices. If Rolex is smart they will limit supply based on demand to keep prices and brand VALUE high.

This, like Panerai didn’t do.

[SudiYunus]

Originally Posted by Zsprings

Not exactly, but it would be great to just go to an AD and buy the model watch we want without having to wait more than a couple of weeks ! Discounted,.... of course!

[Calatrava r]

Perhaps, when supply exceeds demand?

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Zsprings

Not exactly, but it would be great to just go to an AD and buy the model watch we want without having to wait more than a couple of weeks ! Discounted,.... of course!

Discounts for a luxury brand is a bad look IMHO.

[OTX]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Discounts for a luxury brand is a bad look IMHO.

Absolutely!. I bought a Grand Seiko new from an AD for $7600 last year and sold it recently as I fell out of love with it. Sold it for almost a 50% loss and this thing had most of the warranty left and was in mint shape!. Left a sour taste in my mouth for the brand. It just cheapens the brand!. Only watch I buy new is Rolex as they hold really well. Discounting is disastrous for a brands prestige!. Look at Luis Vuitton. They refuse to discount anything even by 1% and if something doesn’t sell, it goes back to the factory and gets reused to make something else instead of selling it at a discount.

[GrailTime]

Originally Posted by OTX

Absolutely!. I bought a Grand Seiko new from an AD for $7600 last year and sold it recently as I fell out of love with it. Sold it for almost a 50% loss and this thing had most of the warranty left and was in mint shape!. Left a sour taste in my mouth for the brand. It just cheapens the brand!. Only watch I buy new is Rolex as they hold really well. Discounting is disastrous for a brands prestige!. Look at Luis Vuitton. They refuse to discount anything even by 1% and if something doesn’t sell, it goes back to the factory and gets reused to make something else instead of selling it at a discount.

50% is quite a loss. Which model did you buy?

But really, one should expect, in a normal environment, to take a loss on selling a watch you bought.

Rolex have a fine balancing act perform going forward. Their watches are still massively in demand, yet, they know that they could be selling double or triple the number of watches they do on a daily basis.

An AD told me very recently that only two or three watches are leaving their store a day.

The AD's, and im sure Rolex, would love to be selling far more watches, but what does this do to the desirability of the brand going forward?

You have to think they want to sell more, at the very least to quash the gray market.

[ArtNouveau]

When new watches are regularly available at the AD secondary prices will bottom out, either slightly above or below MSRP. This will vary by models, it’s already starting to happen for PM models.

[Johndong888]

New watches, they still won’t put out from the top marquees. They’re still in a position to maintain artificial scarcity.

We just need all the greys to start dumping. They’re already restricting the models they’re buying.


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[thenewrick]

I think watch market will be pretty stable for the foreseeable future with the economy being so strong in the US. As long as unemployment is low, stock market increases and there's confidence people will keep buying.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

I think watch market will be pretty stable for the foreseeable future with the economy being so strong in the US. As long as unemployment is low, stock market increases and there's confidence people will keep buying.

I'm wondering if the economy is outside of 2008 financial meltdown really correlates with Rolex purchases.

Do we have any historical data on this being the case?

[gerry100]

Hard to predict bottom, but '24 should see more softening

[Trogster]

Objectively, the luxury market should see another 50% correction over the next two years.

If war breaks out in Taiwan, expect a 75% haircut.

[4reRlxGuy]

It should be getting close (baring something international happens where it could get worse).

I got a "call" from my AD. Arrived early and the previous client was finishing up who walked away from 3 datejusts (one was a mint dial).

There was a JC and both steel date and ND sub available. I passed on all 3 since this dealer will only allocate 1 steel sports model per year.

Things are changing. My grey dealer told me most PM models execpt for platinum and some oysterflex Daytonas can be had for list or below (no tax)

[Gearjockey]

Big election years like 2024 provide false economic equivalency ie cutting interest rates 3x. Bond markets, t-bonds rule the world, not NASDAQ.
The truth shall be revealed in 2025.

[JonnyOld Boy]

A lot of UK grey dealers have shed stock of Rolex in 2023 because they were becoming dead inventory and they had "bills to pay". A couple I spoke to shed at 15% loss to other dealers to free up buying power for other brands. Its seems in the UK, secondary prices are edging down because of that and other factors. That said, still ridiculous prices for some niche pieces and some dealers are happy to keep an OP for 9 months to eventually sell it at 300% of RRP.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Trogster

Objectively, the luxury market should see another 50% correction over the next two years.

If war breaks out in Taiwan, expect a 75% haircut.

If this were true, it would be a harbinger of far worse issues for us to fret over than watch prices.

[kieselguhr]

When TRF and other Rolex fora on other platforms become ghost towns.

At which point the “to the moon” crown would have moved on to the flavor of the week, while the “bottom out” crowd finally get to say I told you so… to an empty room.

[Travis29]

were never going to see under MSRP for most rolex models. Prices are pretty much Ed bottom.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Travis29

were never going to see under MSRP for most rolex models. Prices are pretty much Ed bottom.

Actually most Rolex models will be under MSRP soon.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by APPRF

Actually most Rolex models will be under MSRP soon.

Exactly! Don’t go by used dealer postings. They’ve been bumping that datejust for months . Whatever their asking price is is not a true reflection


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[BlondesNwatches]

I think by Jan 2025. People are back to traveling and living life instead of constant social media during the pandemic.

[favx]

Originally Posted by BlondesNwatches

I think by Jan 2025. People are back to traveling and living life instead of constant social media during the pandemic.

I agree with your opinion.

[Tools]

Originally Posted by Ceriano

Summer is usually the weakest month, do you think we finally see the bottom in the summer of 2024? What would take for the market to capitulate?

Not sure what you mean by bottom-out.

Historically, used watches are cheaper than new, but you have to have new, consistently available, for that to happen. There are exceptions like Red Subs and so on, but right now the Rolex watch market is upside-down.

[1William]

The market moves based on many factors. We also see seasonal pauses and surges but the large Trusted Sellers know this and are capitalized to such an extent that it is just the passing of time for them. Movement up or down in pre-owned prices at around 10% is just the fluctuation in the market. You can not get a hot watch from an AD even still unless you fall into the lucky/whale/significant spend or all of the above. Someone always posts a walk in where they were able to buy a SS Daytona/BLRO or other desirable watch. This is very much the exception and not the rule. As much as the naysayers want us to have a recession and everything collapse so they can buy a watch it is not going to happen. Economic numbers do not show that and we are heading into an election year in the U.S. and typically the government does everything in its power to have a good economy during this cycle. Let interest rate decline, the housing market will explode followed by the automobile industry and money will be flowing again. Then the price on theses watch will blow up again because there will be pent up demand, no more production and plenty of money. Just my thoughts.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by 1William

The market moves based on many factors. We also see seasonal pauses and surges but the large Trusted Sellers know this and are capitalized to such an extent that it is just the passing of time for them. Movement up or down in pre-owned prices at around 10% is just the fluctuation in the market. You can not get a hot watch from an AD even still unless you fall into the lucky/whale/significant spend or all of the above. Someone always posts a walk in where they were able to buy a SS Daytona/BLRO or other desirable watch. This is very much the exception and not the rule. As much as the naysayers want us to have a recession and everything collapse so they can buy a watch it is not going to happen. Economic numbers do not show that and we are heading into an election year in the U.S. and typically the government does everything in its power to have a good economy during this cycle. Let interest rate decline, the housing market will explode followed by the automobile industry and money will be flowing again. Then the price on theses watch will blow up again because there will be pent up demand, no more production and plenty of money. Just my thoughts.

I’m just not following this logic, the economy was pretty good in 2017-2018 yet watches were much more available. This is about Covid demand that should wane over time as people move on.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Nads786

I’m just not following this logic, the economy was pretty good in 2017-2018 yet watches were much more available. This is about Covid demand that should wane over time as people move on.

No, Rolex as a brand has moved from that position in 2017. It was very apparent that Covid has given Rolex a free look to where they can go and they have capitalized on it moving upmarket. The fact Rolex is using "display only" models confirms they will never have semi full display cases again at their AD. Rolex of 10 years ago is gone regardless what the momentary economy is doing.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by Mystro

No, Rolex as a brand has moved from that position in 2017. It was very apparent that Covid has given Rolex a free look to where they can go and they have capitalized on it moving upmarket. The fact Rolex is using "display only" models confirms they will never have semi full display cases again at their AD. Rolex of 10 years ago is gone regardless what the momentary economy is doing.

That's the central theory - I recently did notice there is a (i) on their watches and a disclaimer on the Rolex website which states some watches may not be available because they are handcrafted and the only way to buy a watch is from an AD.

I'm not sure if this was always there or something new.

Either way I'm interested in seeing if this is something they can continue to capitalize on or it's a tactical error on their part.

[Ceriano]

Originally Posted by Mystro

No, Rolex as a brand has moved from that position in 2017. It was very apparent that Covid has given Rolex a free look to where they can go and they have capitalized on it moving upmarket. The fact Rolex is using "display only" models confirms they will never have semi full display cases again at their AD. Rolex of 10 years ago is gone regardless what the momentary economy is doing.

Factories were shut down during covid, they were simply not making any watches. They can’t continue that practice, it’s not sustainable.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Ceriano

Factories were shut down during covid, they were simply not making any watches. They can’t continue that practice, it’s not sustainable.

Covid gave Rolex a free “market view” not a manufacturing supply view. Rolex started their upmarket control path 5 or so years before Covid. The hot watch market just accelerated their final push like reduced AD’s, display models and all new redesigned showrooms. In reality this march upmarket started way back when they restricted parts and aftermarket services. Certain models besides the ss Daytona started to be a bit more selective around 2013 in availability. When the 116500 Daytona hit it exploded to unprecedented levels of desirability and a new world in availability, waiting list and market prices grew from the Daytona trickling down the professional line..