Bitcoin and Rolex

[MRBolton]

People blame a lot of the previous watch bubble on bitcoin or other crypto having high prices, as many enjoyed spending their highly appreciated asset on luxury items. Bitcoin has had a massive increase the last several months, but watches have gone down or at best remained steady. Curious to hear others’ thoughts around this and why it’s not affecting the watch market the same again.

[Pjs9841]

Rolex performance aligns with interest rates. Bitcoin price is the speculation on a future ETF and further utility/adoption.

[offrdmania]

Early adopters/miners of Bitcoin had an influence on the watch market because they bought/mined when Bitcoin was super cheap, when it was in the hundreds of dollars per coin or less and then sold at the top a few years ago when it hit 60K. Since that point, Bitcoin has been a bad investment because it has only come down and even this most recent spike has been minimal and unless you are dropping millions into it, your earnings will be small.
Those early adopters purchased luxury goods because at the time, this was the only category that would accept Bitcoin as a currency.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by MRBolton

People blame a lot of the previous watch bubble on bitcoin or other crypto having high prices, as many enjoyed spending their highly appreciated asset on luxury items. Bitcoin has had a massive increase the last several months, but watches have gone down or at best remained steady. Curious to hear others’ thoughts around this and why it’s not affecting the watch market the same again.

Well just bitcoin Rolex watches have become little more than £$€ objective things and little more.And seems like now it's becoming the main topic on forum once it was about the watches and history of the RWC now it's £$€>

[goldboy]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Early adopters/miners of Bitcoin had an influence on the watch market because they bought/mined when Bitcoin was super cheap, when it was in the hundreds of dollars per coin or less and then sold at the top a few years ago when it hit 60K. Since that point, Bitcoin has been a bad investment because it has only come down and even this most recent spike has been minimal and unless you are dropping millions into it, your earnings will be small.
Those early adopters purchased luxury goods because at the time, this was the only category that would accept Bitcoin as a currency.

Bitcoin is literally the best investment one could have made in our lifetime, and actually still is the best - arguably better than real-estate.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Since that point, Bitcoin has been a bad investment because it has only come down and even this most recent spike has been minimal and unless you are dropping millions into it, your earnings will be small.

Got in late but I don't think doubling this year is a bad investment. I've made more in a tax free Fidelity account off GBTC this year than I did working as a senior principal engineer at a major defense contractor.

The underlying coin performance was +171% over past 1 year.

[goldboy]

Just another thing to add, many people still don't understand BTC. What's happening is as the government debases our money (QE, printing etc...) BTC is decentralized with a fixed amount and cannot be watered down, so people are seeking safety with BTC. People also use assets like Rolex and gold to seek safety for their purchasing power.

The BTC is growing faster than the internet did in the 90s, and with only 21 million coins, once companies, banks, and the wealthy start to buy it there's a good chance the value rises to 1 million USD per coin by 2030. It may even have a chance to become a world reserve currency as countries begin to lose faith in the dollar.

BTC is also portable and easy to transact with internationally, unlike gold.

[brandrea]

To the moon!

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by padi56

Well just bitcoin Rolex watches have become little more than £$€ objective things and little more.And seems like now it's becoming the main topic on forum once it was about the watches and history of the RWC now it's £$€>

The high prices, high demand and low availability are the reality of the Rolex market. To expect everyone to ignore it is really a bit unreasonable.

At least it's new content and not a repost of stuff written 25 years ago.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by zengineer

The high prices, high demand and low availability are the reality of the Rolex market. To expect everyone to ignore it is really a bit unreasonable.

At least it's new content and not a repost of stuff written 25 years ago.

I actually enjoy the posts from the early days of TRF, much more so than the omnipresent pricing threads of today. It would be great if many of the newcomers could simply search their question before starting a new thread.

But with new entrants, come questions to better understand how they should spend their money. I certainly can see both sides.

[KatGirl]

Here we go! Another financial thread! Aren’t there forums for talking about bitcoin? Maybe this thread should be moved to the Open Discussion forum?

Kat


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[Tambo19]

I think the rise of Bitcoin will affect the market in a positive way.

[goldboy]

Originally Posted by KatGirl

Here we go! Another financial thread! Aren’t there forums for talking about bitcoin? Maybe this thread should be moved to the Open Discussion forum?

Kat


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I think Rolex and finance are very much intertwined. Perhaps moved to a different sub-category of the forum but they're certainly connected.

[Ceriano]

You are listening too much to Kevin O'Leary. There is absolutely ZERO correlation between BTC and Rolex prices in the "current market". Do I think some of the easy money from BTC and momentum stocks trading went to buying luxury watches during COVID, absolutely! but those were weak hands and already got slaughtered after the rug pull last year. Many of them will never touch stocks again any time soon.
As far as long term investors are concerned, most don't put more than 5%-8% in BTC and precious metals and I can assure you none would ever touch their portfolio to buy a watch otherwise they wouldn't be investors for long.

[Michael1968]

Originally Posted by brandrea

To the moon!

Agree

[Njkdog]

I feel like it was the initial wave of idiots, who got lucky with bitcoin, who were idiots so they blew their gains on watches (buying expensive watches is not stupid, but it is stupid if you are just doing it to show off and you just wanted something impressive to spend your money on to impress others, it’s different if you actually enjoy watches, and are passionate about them). The majority of them are not still in bitcoin, if they are not, then the fluctuations in bitcoin would not affect the fluctuations and watches as much anymore.

I also feel like it may have been a correlation rather than a causation, maybe they both had the same cause, but the cause was not the other. Another, possibly

[goldboy]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

I feel like it was the initial wave of idiots, who got lucky with bitcoin, who were idiots so they blew their gains on watches (buying expensive watches is not stupid, but it is stupid if you are just doing it to show off and you just wanted something impressive to spend your money on to impress others, it’s different if you actually enjoy watches, and are passionate about them). The majority of them are not still in bitcoin, if they are not, then the fluctuations in bitcoin would not affect the fluctuations and watches as much anymore.

I also feel like it may have been a correlation rather than a causation, maybe they both had the same cause, but the cause was not the other. Another, possibly

They are not correlated directly whatsoever, it's simply the devaluation of fiat currency that has affected all assets together, watches, btc, real-estate, used cars etc.

It really has nothing to do with people making money with BTC and then creating a supply/demand issue because they were buying up all the Rolex.

[racerx]

Originally Posted by KatGirl

Here we go! Another financial thread! Aren’t there forums for talking about bitcoin? Maybe this thread should be moved to the Open Discussion forum?

Kat


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I agree. If I want read about Bitcoin, I’ll consult the financial pages elsewhere. Let’s keep to watches here please.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by racerx

I agree. If I want read about Bitcoin, I’ll consult the financial pages elsewhere. Let’s keep to watches here please.

the irony of this is you can just not click on the thread if you don't wanna read about it

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Got in late but I don't think doubling this year is a bad investment. I've made more in a tax free Fidelity account off GBTC this year than I did working as a senior principal engineer at a major defense contractor.

The underlying coin performance was +171% over past 1 year.

Yep. And when the next halving comes there’s a few GrayScale funds that are gonna explode!!!

Looks like we have more than watches in common

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by huncho

the irony of this is you can just not click on the thread if you don't wanna read about it

Yep. Alright I’m out

Granted it was also good to see you and I also agree on more than watches

[0nly5iv3Digits]

Originally Posted by huncho

the irony of this is you can just not click on the thread if you don't wanna read about it

This!!!

[Galaga167]

Originally Posted by MRBolton

People blame a lot of the previous watch bubble on bitcoin or other crypto having high prices, as many enjoyed spending their highly appreciated asset on luxury items. Bitcoin has had a massive increase the last several months, but watches have gone down or at best remained steady. Curious to hear others’ thoughts around this and why it’s not affecting the watch market the same again.

[Galaga167]

Originally Posted by 0nly5iv3Digits

This!!!

[77T]

Halving has a knock-on effect so don’t jump yet.

Bitcoin’s protocol is hardwired to reduce the amount of BTC awarded to a miner for adding a block to the ongoing chain. Mining reward halvings occur every 210,000 blocks, and with a block added to the blockchain every ten minutes, halvings come around every four years.



The green arrows show the previous 3 halvings. Note how the slope of the rise afterward becomes shallower.

The upcoming 4th halving is inevitable and may washout some less efficient miners.

The relationship to Rolex price isn’t correlated since I have yet to see them reduce prices when BTC fell…hope that answers the question.


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[2loaded]

Per forum rules:

(iv) THIS IS A ROLEX WATCH DISCUSSION FORUM AND NOT A PRICE OR INVESTMENT OR DISCOUNT DISCUSSION FORUM SO IF YOU HAVE A QUERY REGARDING PRICES, INVESTMENTS OR DISCOUNTS THEN MAKE YOUR OWN PERSONAL ENQUIRIES AND INVESTIGATIONS AND DO NOT POST THOSE ISSUES HERE.

[Mr Ben]

You won’t see a direct immediate correlation. The upwards pressure on watch prices has been driven by multiple factors including production shortages, covid cash, inability to spend money on other luxuries, low interest rates etc. And yes, high stock markets and crypto gains.

Social media fuelled the fire/ hype and the impact was felt on demand and prices for other items - property, car, stock markets, watches, even LEGO…

Bitcoin is an obvious example because it’s easy to spend gains gradually on watches where it is accepted as payment instead of translating it directly into cash. Less scrupulous people may view this as a convenient way of trying to avoid tax.

You’ll never see an immediate direct correlation though as too many other factors at play. It’s like asking why ice cream prices haven’t gone up because it was sunny last week.

[INC]

Originally Posted by 77T

The upcoming 4th halving is inevitable and may washout some less efficient miners.

Yes, and based on the past, we can expect that the value of BTC will rise more steeply after the 4th halving, if only because many people will gamble on this more or less certain future.

[77T]

Originally Posted by INC

Yes, and based on the past, we can expect that the value of BTC will rise more steeply after the 4th halving, if only because many people will gamble on this more or less certain future.

If you look at the chart I posted, the rises after halvings are not getting steeper. It’s getting shallower.

Yes, it will rise more than the basic market - but not as strong as previous halvings.


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[Harry-57]

Oops, sorry, I was looking for the Rolex forum.