Has FPJ over produced?

[wisguy]

Now that I have more time to browse all the watches I want and can't afford, I've seen there are many FP Journe watches for sale.

Considering how small their production is, it seems like a disproportionate amount of watches for sale, compared to other independents. There are almost as many FPJ watches for sale, if not more, than ALS, PP, VC or AP.

And I don't mean Chrono24, I don't trust those listings, I mean reputable watch dealers that I have dealt with or have visited their brick and mortar stores.

It seems they are readily available, expensive, but you can get several models with no problem, from "entry level" pieces like the CB or Havana to really complicated ones. Kinda defeats the purpose of going independent?

What do you think?

For the record I like them, a lot.

[WatchEater666]

I've been doing a lot of research into FPJ recently as I plan on acquiring a Resonance or Chronometre Optimum.

What happened is that a few dealers like Watchbox effectively bought up existing supply, and then increased prices and it appeared to work out. I don't have a problem with this, I find it quite entertaining lol.

My guess is people saw the huge increases in prices and decided to list their own watches for sale. The models I was looking at went up 30% - 40% between Dec and now which is a little annoying but I'm personally just going to buy new now or wait a little for the used market to come down depending on what the new 2020 Resonance model is like.

[sgwatchguy]

Quite a few private sellers recently. Probably coming out due to the inflated asking on some platforms.


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[unknown]

Originally Posted by wisguy

There are almost as many FPJ watches for sale, if not more, than ALS, PP, VC or AP.
.

I did look on chrono24 cause all the dealers do put them also for sale on that site

11.000 patek
8.600 AP
3;500 VC
1.900 Lange

130 FP Journe

Big dealers I know in Europe have no, max 2 or 3 journe for sale and dozens of AP and Patek

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by unknown

I did look on chrono24 cause all the dealers do put them also for sale on that site

11.000 patek
8.600 AP
3;500 VC
1.900 Lange

130 FP Journe

Big dealers I know in Europe have no, max 2 or 3 journe for sale and dozens of AP and Patek

The demand for FPJ is dramatically lower, though.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by unknown

I did look on chrono24 cause all the dealers do put them also for sale on that site

11.000 patek
8.600 AP
3;500 VC
1.900 Lange

130 FP Journe

Big dealers I know in Europe have no, max 2 or 3 journe for sale and dozens of AP and Patek

Great research. The market is not exactly "flooded" with FPJ watches based on this. In fact, there are 4 X as many Patek 5711s offered as there are all Journe pieces.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Great research. The market is not exactly "flooded" with FPJ watches based on this. In fact, there are 4 X as many Patek 5711s offered as there are all Journe pieces.

"Flooded" is technically defined by supply vs. the demand.

It's hard to quantify the demand, but I would argue there's way more than 4x demand for 5711's than FPJ's in general.

[Swaye]

So much FPJ talk lately. I love it. It's a strange time for them rising when everything else is falling. I just know I enjoy the watches. Hoping to get out to Paris after this all ends and go to the boutique.

[shafran]

where do you see the flood for sale cs others. I have checked a few sights and dont see that other than watchbox.

[lanteanflux]

Yah where are these mysterious FPJs hidden away? In Singapore I’ve trawled through about 20 brick’n’mortars and only ever seen 1 FPJ in the last 3 months (and I bought it, figured it was a sign ��). In terms of most oversupplied watch here fwiw it’s definitely the Hulk, each has 1-2

[Swaye]

130 watches for sale globally is nothing. Brand has been making watches 20 years, and has probably averaged 600 per year over that 20 years. Probably 12-15K watches over 20 years. It is what it is. I constantly track a good cross section of FPJ on Chrono24 and they are selling pretty well. Every week some are gone. No idea if they are getting anywhere near the listed price, but somebody is buying them.

[GB-man]

At stated in the other thread. No. I don’t see it at all. Quite the opposite. I also think the fix is in via WatchBox and now others lol

[DGB]

I would say FPJ is more of a collector’s watch, it is usually end users who buy these watches.
While Patek and AP , especially 5711 and steel Royal Oak are mostly exchanged between dealers.
Just my opinion.


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[AuspiciousCat]

The question is, how many of the 130 FPJ watches on C24 is actually from WatchBox? Must be a few of them. :)

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by AuspiciousCat

The question is, how many of the 130 FPJ watches on C24 is actually from WatchBox? Must be a few of them. :)

131 total for sale. 40 of them from Watchbox. 30% roughly. Big market mover for sure.

edit: I should add that they are showing 40 from Watchbox globally. They have them in HK, Philly, Geneva and Dubai. So forty watches spread across 4 brick and mortar locations. Still, big presence globally in the FPJ market. I have been told by a person at Govberg that they sell more FPJ out of HK than the US.

[lanteanflux]

The prices have definitely been coming down though. WatchBox pulled 2 CBs listed around 55 USD and put them back up at 45 and are still not getting traded on. I have all white metal Journes on notepad to follow the market and basically nothing of note has traded in last month except a brass yellow dial reserve de marche which was listed at a very reasonable low 40s and got taken within 24 hours (would’ve needed at least 72 to convince my wife...).. WatchBox would list that around 70 I’m sure given they had a brass grey dial rdm at 60...

[shafran]

but the resonance and centigraphes have gone up.

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by lanteanflux

The prices have definitely been coming down though. WatchBox pulled 2 CBs listed around 55 USD and put them back up at 45 and are still not getting traded on. I have all white metal Journes on notepad to follow the market and basically nothing of note has traded in last month except a brass yellow dial reserve de marche which was listed at a very reasonable low 40s and got taken within 24 hours (would’ve needed at least 72 to convince my wife...).. WatchBox would list that around 70 I’m sure given they had a brass grey dial rdm at 60...

Any chance you could send that over via PM?

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by shafran

but the resonance and centigraphes have gone up.

This. I can see prices are coming back down to reality on a few pieces, particularly the CBs. But, discontinued models haven't dropped as of now. Resonance, Centigraphe's, Ruthenium stuff, and certainly brass have gone way up and still seem strong.

I do agree with many who have said for watches that are still currently being produced it makes sense to just go to the boutique and buy it. Lines, outside the CB, are not overly long I have heard. If you want something that is disco'ed, well, the market is the market.

[wisguy]

Originally Posted by shafran

where do you see the flood for sale cs others. I have checked a few sights and dont see that other than watchbox.

Not exactly scientific, but better than C24.

European Watches listings as of today:
PP 78
ALS 18
AP 10
FPJ 10
VC 4

Considering how recent FPJ is compared to the other brands (even younger than ALS), and how much smaller their production is supossed to be, I think the number of pieces for sale is disproportionate.

They either produce more than they say, or people are letting go of them at alarming rates?

Other reputable dealers have similar listing ratios. That was my point.

In any case, interesting points and appreciate the info and views.

[lanteanflux]

I don’t think EWC is a good representation . EWC is one of the biggest Journe sellers outside of WatchBox. In other words people who have a Journe to sell seem to go to these bigger houses with wider reach, since the market for Journe is smaller and you want to make sure you get the max price. Just as if you had a Newman Daytona to sell you’d go to an auction house rather than list it at your local corner store. Fact remains most preowned have zero FPJ. Check watchfinder even, last I checked it had 1-2 and both undesirable octa models.

On brass/ruthenium etc, I think you’d have to question yourself buying anything at December 2019 prices in FPJ. All asset classes are down so even if you think you now have availability on a rare piece which may not have been there in December and can spend the same amount of money as you would have been willing to in December, why not buy equities or art or anything else at a 20% discount instead? It’s opportunity cost rather than real cost in buying a Journe at old prices. Even within watches, you can probably find fire private sellers in Europe for fraction of old prices.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by wisguy

They either produce more than they say, or people are letting go of them at alarming rates?

I suggest a third option:

The variance between the amount they produce, and the demand for their pieces, is greater than other brands.

I don't think people are letting FPJ watches go at alarming rates, nor do I think they're lying when they say they produce ~700/yr.

Again, virtually no one I know knows about FPJ. It's not a brand "most" people talk about.

They talk about Rolex, Patek, Richard Mille, Audemars Piguet, Hublot, Omega.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by lanteanflux

On brass/ruthenium etc, I think you’d have to question yourself buying anything at December 2019 prices in FPJ. All asset classes are down so even if you think you now have availability on a rare piece which may not have been there in December and can spend the same amount of money as you would have been willing to in December, why not buy equities or art or anything else at a 20% discount instead? It’s opportunity cost rather than real cost in buying a Journe at old prices. Even within watches, you can probably find fire private sellers in Europe for fraction of old prices.

Yeah, I agree. I've been wanting a few brass pieces for a while now, but I stupidly waited too long, and the market priced me out. I'm not in at the absurd prices that we saw at recent auctions (that $250k one for a "simple" brass piece was unfortunate -- by simple I mean it had no specific heritage, like the souscription pieces do, for example).

[ialienam]

Yes, I want to ask the same. I just got myself a Journe from local AD, my very first FPJ. It's an entry level CS, and ultimately I want to get a tourby (last generation, deadbeat). But like some of you have pointed out, one was sold in Nov 2019 $97500 USD (again it was asking price, but let assume it was the final price). ACM was selling about that same price back late 2018 or so.

Now, Watchbox and EWC are asking for $130k. Well....but I have been watching those stocks and I don't think they are moving at all. Again, it's insane what they ask. Or they don't care, just hold those stocks..MAYBE one day Maybe, someone will pay for that price.

I like my CS Journe, and I would only consider to move it if I can secure a deadbeat Tourby.

[eviperman]

Originally Posted by ialienam

But like some of you have pointed out, one was sold in Nov 2019 $97500 USD (again it was asking price, but let assume it was the final price). ACM was selling about that same price back late 2018 or so.

Now, Watchbox and EWC are asking for $130k. Well....but I have been watching those stocks and I don't think they are moving at all. Again, it's insane what they ask. Or they don't care, just hold those stocks..MAYBE one day Maybe, someone will pay for that price.

This is VERY simple.

At $130K the tourbillon TN is selling BELOW the retail price it sold at. In 2018 there was no VERTICAL Tourbillon, so the TN was selling lower then but it's now discontinued and FPJ won't be making another one.

$130K for a DISCONTINUED tourbillon watch is NOT "insane". How much does Lange or Patek charge for a tourbillon?

The Vertical Tourbillon is just under $250K at retail, so $130K for a discontinued TN is very reasonable, especially if you want a FPJ tourbillon.

The same will happen for the Resonance. ALL Resonance pieces will sell for higher than what they did in 2018 (which we're already seeing) because the new 2020 Resonance will be substantially higher retail than past models, thereby pushing older pieces up in price, which have the added benefit of being "discontinued".

FPJ is not a Patek, he doesn't just go change a dial colour or metal and call it a new watch... when something is discontinued IT IS DONE.

[conkers]

I just sold a Journe to WatchBox and their bid, whilst still a nasty hit for me, was a lot lot higher than others I received.

[eviperman]

Originally Posted by conkers

I just sold a Journe to WatchBox and their bid, whilst still a nasty hit for me, was a lot lot higher than others I received.

This is a very good point. The benefit of Watchbox loving FPJ is that they provide liquidity in a rather niche brand, and don't want to kill the market by selling pieces cheaply. This is a great thing for the brand and for collectors... I'd much prefer this than what happens in the A Lange & Sohne market where it's a bloodbath in the aftermarket.

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by eviperman

This is a very good point. The benefit of Watchbox loving FPJ is that they provide liquidity in a rather niche brand, and don't want to kill the market by selling pieces cheaply. This is a great thing for the brand and for collectors... I'd much prefer this than what happens in the A Lange & Sohne market where it's a bloodbath in the aftermarket.

This.

[conkers]

Originally Posted by eviperman

This is a very good point. The benefit of Watchbox loving FPJ is that they provide liquidity in a rather niche brand, and don't want to kill the market by selling pieces cheaply. This is a great thing for the brand and for collectors... I'd much prefer this than what happens in the A Lange & Sohne market where it's a bloodbath in the aftermarket.

True enough but then on the flip side that does give rise to some great buying opportunities for Langes as I discovered yesterday!

[Slider817]

Originally Posted by conkers

True enough but then on the flip side that does give rise to some great buying opportunities for Langes as I discovered yesterday!

Agreed, Lange is great buying right now, and has been for a while.