Electric cars....sooner than you think?

[Blansky]

We've had this discussion in previous threads. Here's an interesting article and if you read the comments section, some of the same issues....and answers.

Personally I think like the article states it is beginning the unstoppable wave phase that will soon wash over, much like the computer did and will be everywhere sooner that people anticipated, while addressing the negative issues in the same way.

I still think you'll be able to find gas for your classic car to tool around in on weekends but you won't be able to find any new ICE cars on the market.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57...ign=pockethits

[TheVTCGuy]

I agree Blansky, I think it’s momentum is gaining. ICEs will still be around for years and years, but in the next 10? 20? 30? 50? years they will be the novelty and electric will be the norm.

[Blansky]

And I still think someone will find a way to have them actually charging while they are being driven.

And no, I don't mean a really really long extension cord.

[Tools]

Flux Capacitors.

[Spectre38]

Originally Posted by Tools

Flux Capacitors.

Flux Capacitors only power the Time Circuits... You still need plutonium to produce the 1.21 gigawatts required.... or a Mr. Fusion unit.

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by Blansky

And I still think someone will find a way to have them actually charging while they are being driven.

And no, I don't mean a really really long extension cord.

Regenerative Braking.

Solar roof panels for sunnier climes?
Sub-surface road cables enabling induction charging?

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

Regenerative Braking.

Solar roof panels for sunnier climes?
Sub-surface road cables enabling induction charging?

I remember when we were kids we had bikes that if you wanted to use the light you pushed a small generator against the tire and as it turned it lit up our light.

You'd think some engineering marvel could figure out solar, or a wind/air intake to power a generator. The motion should be able to create some sort of charging device.

In Britain and Seattle they could create some sort of rainwater charger.

You wanna be rich just figure out how to charge an electric car on the go. (And don't say....how about a gas engine?)

[Sprezzatura!,]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

Regenerative Braking.

Solar roof panels for sunnier climes?
Sub-surface road cables enabling induction charging?

I always wondered why a glass-type roof with solar battery cells hasn’t ever been mentioned? Maybe that’s my naivety, but I would have thought that’s the best way to get around low charge? Also, with solar, it works practically anywhere. UK has got lots of homes with solar panels, why not cars with similar?

I’ve always said that I don’t think charging cables will work on public streets. I’m sure in the UK, people would often remove them for a laugh, to mention, take it from one car and put it in to their own for a period of time.

[philipgv]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

Regenerative Braking.

Solar roof panels for sunnier climes?
Sub-surface road cables enabling induction charging?

Check out the dutch company Lightyear.

[Laszlo]

It’s happening very quickly but I did just read a report that the environmental footprint of EV and ICE is at parity. Jevons Paradox I suppose.

[Cloudchaser]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

It’s happening very quickly but I did just read a report that the environmental footprint of EV and ICE is at parity. Jevons Paradox I suppose.

This is too often overlooked. Conceptually, I'm all in. Practically...

Mostly, EVs are a NIMBY fantasy still. The grid to which they so proudly and loudly plug in is, more often than not, heavily if not wholly reliant on traditional power sources.

The mining of the rare earth minerals needed for batteries in these cars is very much an "out of sight out of mind" phenomenon, with most people excited about EVs never even thinking about it (or the disposal of said batteries at the end of their life).

None of that even touches on the current charging limitations or the fact that current trends suggest that future iterations will be increasingly luxury-oriented (meaning gains in battery technology will be offset and regenerative braking power diminished on heavier cars).

Oh, and I continue to witness mini drag races along PCH, where Tesla bros race ICE bros from red light to red light. That's the environmental spirit at play probably.

When the thing is nuclear powered and fully self-driving, I will camp out for first spot in line.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Cloudchaser

This is too often overlooked. Conceptually, I'm all in. Practically...

Mostly, EVs are a NIMBY fantasy still. The grid to which they so proudly and loudly plug in is, more often than not, heavily if not wholly reliant on traditional power sources.

The mining of the rare earth minerals needed for batteries in these cars is very much an "out of sight out of mind" phenomenon, with most people excited about EVs never even thinking about it (or the disposal of said batteries at the end of their life).

None of that even touches on the current charging limitations or the fact that current trends suggest that future iterations will be increasingly luxury-oriented (meaning gains in battery technology will be offset and regenerative braking power diminished on heavier cars).

Oh, and I continue to witness mini drag races along PCH, where Tesla bros race ICE bros from red light to red light. That's the environmental spirit at play probably.

When the thing is nuclear powered and fully self-driving, I will camp out for first spot in line.

I agree, however it is the trend that is notable. Right now most of the energy (electricity) that powers EVs comes from conventional power plants that burn fossil fuels; but that is changing. Our state (California) has implemented a tremendous amount of renewable sources like solar and wind, these sources will only expand in the future. I think CA has a goal towards 100% renewable by 2050 (or something like that). So the trend is moving towards “clean” energy.

You are also correct about the batteries and the environment, I believe Lithium is the worst perpetrator; but this will also change. The new solid state batteries (don’t ask me to explain them) are supposed to severely reduce or eliminate the effect on the environment these types of batteries cause.

EVs are the future, love it or hate it, that’s what’s coming. It may not be for 50 years (or more) but someday ICE vehicles will be a novelty.

(50 years from now people may be having the discussion like this of EVs versus Hydrogen vehicles).

[904VT]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I agree, however it is the trend that is notable. Right now most of the energy (electricity) that powers EVs comes from conventional power plants that burn fossil fuels; but that is changing. Our state (California) has implemented a tremendous amount of renewable sources like solar and wind, these sources will only expand in the future. I think CA has a goal towards 100% renewable by 2050 (or something like that). So the trend is moving towards “clean” energy.

You are also correct about the batteries and the environment, I believe Lithium is the worst perpetrator; but this will also change. The new solid state batteries (don’t ask me to explain them) are supposed to severely reduce or eliminate the effect on the environment these types of batteries cause.

EVs are the future, love it or hate it, that’s what’s coming. It may not be for 50 years (or more) but someday ICE vehicles will be a novelty.

(50 years from now people may be having the discussion like this of EVs versus Hydrogen vehicles).

Solar is very interesting, though too expensive today still for wide use. Wind energy imo at least is a scam. I know that may be a bit controversial but besides the visual pollution to the countryside, they are less reliable than portrayed. Texas learned the hard way that wind plants don't work when temperatures go down below thresholds. Wind generally only operates in ideal environments. CA has plenty of nice weather in that sweet spot of 40 to 80 degrees, but wind can be an issue in some places with such diverse terrain.

Regarding hydrogen, I think this is the future. Cost prohibitive now, but there are real running examples out there including some public transit that are currently using. Nothing but good ol' H2O emissions. Stability though of the gas is an issue. A found the BMW 7 series hydrogen concept to be especially interesting.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Solar is very interesting, though too expensive today still for wide use. Wind energy imo at least is a scam. I know that may be a bit controversial but besides the visual pollution to the countryside, they are less reliable than portrayed. Texas learned the hard way that wind plants don't work when temperatures go down below thresholds. Wind generally only operates in ideal environments. CA has plenty of nice weather in that sweet spot of 40 to 80 degrees, but wind can be an issue in some places with such diverse terrain.

Not quite. Most power was lost due to natural gas plants not being winterized for hard freezes and shutting down. On top of that, you had pipeline companies choosing to shut down flow causing an even bigger gas shortages to plants so they could take advantage of spot prices lead to a total crapfest for several days.

[Mendota]

I read an article about 3.5 years ago from the CEO of Mercedes talking about the futurism and he is taking it an additional step further than this. He said Mercedes and all of the other big auto makers and the insurance companies are planning for it, as well as the airlines. He said there will come a time when people don't own personal cars anymore. He said it will be cheaper and safer to do on demand EV transportation versus owning and maintaining/insuring your own personal use vehicles. There will be some people from our generations who will still own a vehicle for weekend tooling about, but that will be it. He said the space in homes devoted to parking cars is space that can be refinished into significant usable living space, as well. He said the entire industry is planning for the eventual change and the airlines are planning for the shift from large hub air travel to smaller, regional air travel as well as passengers skipping air travel entirely and using overnight, on demand road travel. Instead of spending multiple hours of a day going to and from big airports, going through security, and all of that nonsense, instead you can request an on demand van or something with sleeping accommodations so you can go to bed and then wake up at your destination. No airport security or restrictions on liquids, baggage, and all of that hassle. He estimated that kids born today won't be getting drivers licenses and won't be owning cars.

He also said that both the accounting and legal professions are planning for Artificial Intelligence changes, as well. He said companies such as Thomson Reuters, who employ hundreds of lawyers working on legal AI databases, are working on services that will allow a corporation to scale down from having entire armies of lawyers on staff to just a few lawyers who are responsible for using the AI legal account. It was a fascinating article and I wish I could find it again.

Porsche announced last year that they are transforming into a public transportation company and they are already forming partnerships with cities around the world in anticipation of this. Within the next 20-30 years or so you will no longer be able to purchase your own Porsche for daily driving. The CEO said they will only make them for track use, where on the weekends you can go to a state of the art facility and drive the latest and greatest Porsche models versus buying and maintaining them. He said there will be some enthusiasts that carry over from the olden days who still own and maintain them out of nostalgia, but they won't be producing them for consumers anymore.

Interesting stuff for sure...

[sco]

Thanks, I enjoyed the article. I'd be interested to own an electric car next, maybe for the wife... She would love to not worry about filling the tank with gas.

[swils8610]

Currently 1.9% of the vehicles sold in the US are electric.

4.1% is the number globally.


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[Tzmore]

Originally Posted by swils8610

Currently 1.9% of the vehicles sold in the US are electric.

4.1% is the number globally.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Agreeable.

[Tzmore]

Originally Posted by swils8610

Currently 1.9% of the vehicles sold in the US are electric.

4.1% is the number globally.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

And it will exceed this number soonest.

[Cru Jones]

I was recently at a big VW dealership in the suburbs outside of Paris. I asked how the ID.3 and 4 were selling. The answer?

“So so.”

Not a ringing endorsement from a car salesman about the company’s star product! He didn’t even try to get me excited by them.

His view was that for most people he sees an EV is still a second car. As such, it is an expensive option.

Still the best seller? Diesel. And that’s with Paris supposedly going diesel-free in 2024.

[swils8610]

I run a VW dealer. The ID.4 is not selling well at this point. We’ve sold one. With the AWD model coming late summer sales should increase. We do sell 1 or 2 Audi ETRONS a month.


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[Tricolore66]

Interesting to hear that the ID.4 isn't selling, as I was really rooting for it! I love what VW is doing these days, and I'm planning on getting the new Golf R just as soon as I can.

I went to the ID.4 driving event in Houston, which was a waste time time since it was basically a loop around the Galleria mall and I couldn't get the thing past 15mph, if moving at all. I understand what VW was trying to do, which is not make it too radical and grab conventional crossover buyers, but I think that will prove to be a failed strategy. I went with a friend to pickup a new Tesla Y last week, and couldn't believe the buying experience. I was expecting something like an Apple store experience, but it was just a kid in track jacket pointing to a parking spot in a busy strip mall and telling him "there's your car, just open it with the app, and you'll want to make a service appt today to fix all the issues."

I've never seen a modern car with such poor paint quality, terrible panel gaps, sloppy trim, cheap materials. I'm in the sports car business and he asked me to go along to check it out, which seemed strange since he already paid for it, and they wouldn't even let us inside it until he accepted the car on the app and basically took delivery. He's super picky and I'm sure he'll go nuts chasing issues and probably make them buy it back. He's already complaining about rattles and software glitches.

That brings me back to the VW ID.4. These Tesla people don't really want things that operate like cars; they want rolling iPads. They apparently don't care about things like quality, or they wouldn't be paying $75k for something that would never be allowed to leave a Toyota factory. In short, the ID.4 misses the mark for the people who appear to want to buy these things today. I think they should have tried to "out-Tesla Tesla" instead of converting gas buyers to electric. I think stealing market share from those who are already electric disciples, at least in your first serious effort, might have made more sense, but I guess we'll see.

I think VW should have launched with their most expensive performance model first, like Porsche did with the Taycan. The VW is really well put together, with lots of nice touches, but it's pretty slow, and the rated range is way off from the Tesla, which is what everyone will unfortunately be comparing it to.

Originally Posted by swils8610

I run a VW dealer. The ID.4 is not selling well at this point. We’ve sold one. With the AWD model coming late summer sales should increase. We do sell 1 or 2 Audi ETRONS a month.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

Interesting to hear that the ID.4 isn't selling, as I was really rooting for it! I love what VW is doing these days, and I'm planning on getting the new Golf R just as soon as I can.

I went to the ID.4 driving event in Houston, which was a waste time time since it was basically a loop around the Galleria mall and I couldn't get the thing past 15mph, if moving at all. I understand what VW was trying to do, which is not make it too radical and grab conventional crossover buyers, but I think that will prove to be a failed strategy. I went with a friend to pickup a new Tesla Y last week, and couldn't believe the buying experience. I was expecting something like an Apple store experience, but it was just a kid in track jacket pointing to a parking spot in a busy strip mall and telling him "there's your car, just open it with the app, and you'll want to make a service appt today to fix all the issues."

I've never seen a modern car with such poor paint quality, terrible panel gaps, sloppy trim, cheap materials. I'm in the sports car business and he asked me to go along to check it out, which seemed strange since he already paid for it, and they wouldn't even let us inside it until he accepted the car on the app and basically took delivery. He's super picky and I'm sure he'll go nuts chasing issues and probably make them buy it back. He's already complaining about rattles and software glitches.

That brings me back to the VW ID.4. These Tesla people don't really want things that operate like cars; they want rolling iPads. They apparently don't care about things like quality, or they wouldn't be paying $75k for something that would never be allowed to leave a Toyota factory. In short, the ID.4 misses the mark for the people who appear to want to buy these things today. I think they should have tried to "out-Tesla Tesla" instead of converting gas buyers to electric. I think stealing market share from those who are already electric disciples, at least in your first serious effort, might have made more sense, but I guess we'll see.

I think VW should have launched with their most expensive performance model first, like Porsche did with the Taycan. The VW is really well put together, with lots of nice touches, but it's pretty slow, and the rated range is way off from the Tesla, which is what everyone will unfortunately be comparing it to.

Nice input. I'm curious what happens to all these fully electric vehicles when the electric components eventually go. At a certain point the vehicle will depreciate as needed repairs become sunk costs and greater than the value of the vehicle. Then these all become more electronic waste/e waste. Basically giant versions of what are in small electronics with lithium ion battery type waste.


We should cut down electronics in vehicles in general, as we witnessed this year what happens when you overly rely on electronics to manage vehicles. With the microchip shortages, assembly lines have shut down and cost of storage increases as vehicles wait to be finished. What's wrong with some simplicity in our vehicles.

Those that care about the environment, it's worth considering if electronic vehicles actually do more harm to the environment than good. We are early in the production cycle of these vehicles, so as I mentioned earlier there will eventually be e waste galore. Add the electricity needed to charge the vehicles, and they aren't as clean as perceived imo. All vehicles today already hold too much plastic pollution as well.

[Tricolore66]

The older I get the more appreciation I have for things that will last and stand the test of time, so not much today is geared in that direction. Most days I drive an air-cooled Porsche and check the tire pressure with a 40 year old gauge. I’ve got Rolex’s that are almost as old as I am, and probably one of the things that attracts me to the brand. Like most things, if you just follow the money you’ll understand why things like electric cars have come to exist.

Originally Posted by 904VT

Nice input. I'm curious what happens to all these fully electric vehicles when the electric components eventually go. At a certain point the vehicle will depreciate as needed repairs become sunk costs and greater than the value of the vehicle. Then these all become more electronic waste/e waste. Basically giant versions of what are in small electronics with lithium ion battery type waste.


We should cut down electronics in vehicles in general, as we witnessed this year what happens when you overly rely on electronics to manage vehicles. With the microchip shortages, assembly lines have shut down and cost of storage increases as vehicles wait to be finished. What's wrong with some simplicity in our vehicles.

Those that care about the environment, it's worth considering if electronic vehicles actually do more harm to the environment than good. We are early in the production cycle of these vehicles, so as I mentioned earlier there will eventually be e waste galore. Add the electricity needed to charge the vehicles, and they aren't as clean as perceived imo. All vehicles today already hold too much plastic pollution as well.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

The older I get the more appreciation I have for things that will last and stand the test of time, so not much today is geared in that direction. Most days I drive an air-cooled Porsche and check the tire pressure with a 40 year old gauge. I’ve got Rolex’s that are almost as old as I am, and probably one of the things that attracts me to the brand. Like most things, if you just follow the money you’ll understand why things like electric cars have come to exist.

I agree, I think products that last a lifetime are well worth the investment. You get to enjoy high quality and cut down on waste. Air-cooled are so nice

[Blansky]

The first personal computer was made by Xerox and they couldn't sell it or even market it. Why. Because it took an accounting software program to be the "killer app" that got the ball rolling. Just not for Xerox. Steve Jobs and others stole the idea.

People react to new technology by basically saying "what's in it for me?". Although car makers are all heading to EV there still needs to be a "what's in it for me" for the public to clamor to it, and I'm not sure it's there yet.

This link used computers as its comparison but I think digital cameras are a better comparison. Computers were complete revolutionary and new. But like cars, cameras used an old technology that had been around forever, namely film. And part of the change to digital was also environmental. Darkroom chemistry is nasty and extremely polluting.

When digital cameras first came out, in around 1991 or 1992, in camera stores (usually pro ones) there was a tiny section at the side of the store for digital. Commercial (product) photographers were probably the first adopters because there was an ease of moving the product through post production to the advertising agencies as well as showing the client in real time the shots they took.

I watched as year after year the digital area in the store grew and grew convincing other types of photographers that the benefits were there to switch to digital. By the early 2000 the film department in the camera store has started to shrink down to the little spot at the side of the store and digital took over. First pros then consumers. An entire revolution of an approach to capturing images. Oh sure there were still people that yelled to the heavens "digital sucks, digital sucks" but slowly most were eventually won over as well.

EV right now is a lot like digital cameras in 1992, I think. I remember when I bought my first digital cameras I still carried around my film ones, just in case. Much like people have an EV in the garage beside their ICE one. But slowly the ICE ones will disappear, just like my film cameras did.

And perhaps like cameras, the pros will be the biggest first adopters. The trucking industry is going to possibly be at the forefront of this revolution.

[PeqFB]

Just bought my first EV, Ford Mustang Mach E. Only been two weeks but we love it.

[DLRIDES]

Infrastructure …………….. 40-50 years away.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by DLRIDES

Infrastructure …………….. 40-50 years away.

Not really. 5-10 most likely.

My hesitation in buying a Audi Etron or Tesla has been the issue of charging on drive longer than 300 miles. However, on a recent road trip from Denver to Durango, I saw several charging stations along the way. I understand the demand has led to long wait lines at peak times in California but not yet here in Colorado.

Personally, I cannot wait for an EV but my wife is next in line for a new vehicle and she is the ideal consumer for an EV with a 24 mile round trip commute. She is trying to decide on whether to wait another 2-4 years for an electric BMW or Mercedes SUV. Or buy a preowned Cayenne as a bridge till the luxury EVs become more common.

I will drive my Audi Q5 TDI for at least another five years and hope to be all electric by then.

And mark my words folks, the electric F150 will be the vehicle that starts the steep part of the curve. Even my x5 driving neighbor wants one.

[DLRIDES]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

Not really. 5-10 most likely.

It would take more than ten years just to produce 50% of the charging hardware ! Not to mention power production, raw materials for batteries, recycling process for tens of millions battery cells, …………… and the list goes on and on. The “intentions matter more than results” campaign feels god, but not reality.