Rationale of “under retail” pricing

[Rickynelson]

Hi all,
I’m new to this forum but have been following for years, finally got the courage to write , go easy please:)
I have an option to buy a brand new WG Sub (126619LB) and the price is 15%-20% below retail.
The seller is legit and I have bought from him before (grey dealer) but I just can’t get my head around how a 2023 set gets this low so quick.
I’ve been around to buy a sub (date) at a German airport minus the VAT right before a flight a decade ago but I’m trying to see if I’m missing something.

Many thanks

RN

[996marty]

If you can get a watch for 15%-20% below retail I’d be going for it. The reason is probably because the high ticket items become harder to sell when the market slows down.

[BriansRolex]

In this market 15-20% below retail on a 2023 full set 126619LB is a great buy IMO

[996marty]

I also forgot to mention after living in Melbourne for 13 years I do think you can pick up some great watches in Australia for the right money if you know where to look

[omar-rye]

It's true; the 126619LB is selling below retail. I'm not 100% up to date with pricing, but I think 15% sounds about right for an unworn 2023 example. Someone with more knowledge will be able to confirm how much below retail it's currently trading for.

Wait until you find out that some unworn Omegas trade for 20-30% or more below retail. AD's have about a 40% margin. Knowing that should make it easier to grasp the concept that unworn examples can and do trade below MSRP.

[GB-man]

That’s the current market. Historically WG Rolex in general, particularly the sub have been slow sellers. Only recently have the WG Daytonas and to a degree the WG olive DD bucked this trend.

Many will opt for SS for 1/3 the price or want the flash of YG/RG when spending 30-40k on a Rolex.

[Podmornica]

There was a guy here who visited Qatar/ or living there. He also mentioned 10-15% OFF Daydates at his local AD. That was months ago before even bigger price meltdown we are seeing now. Full PM catalogue pieces are hard to sell these days, especially those less wanted like the white gold Submariner so he's not doing you any favour ..

I wouldn't go for one just because it's now 20% OFF list price as that's still a lot of money for something that's not your first choice regardless of the price. If you wanted to buy that SS Sub 10 years ago and still want one, I would go for that one. Even if you buy it tomorrow on the gray market, you will lose far less than buying that white gold and potentially having second thoughts later on. Unloading such a piece in used condition down the road could put you out thousands of $$$ from the pocket.

[SamArj]

WG sub is bought by grey dealers under list and sold under list, has been the case for at least the last three months.
I haven't heard of ADs selling anything below list yet.....it will be interesting when and if that happens

[Moondoggy]

Ai

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by SamArj

WG sub is bought by grey dealers under list and sold under list, has been the case for at least the last three months.
I haven't heard of ADs selling anything below list yet.....it will be interesting when and if that happens

Of course it won't happen anytime soon as the AD needs to maintain the image of unobtainability. Imagine if AD would start offering 15% for a PM Sub but telling that you have to wait 1 year for a regular Sub. Something would sound off to a regular Joe customer. This way the crayon eater and window licker is happy when he gets a call for a full PM Sub, even though he can get it tomorrow at 15% OFF

On the other hand, grey dealers do not have this luxury and they have to follow the market sentiment. We will start seeing discounts at the grey dealers first - we already are actually.

The issue in todays market is that hardly anything moves at the grey dealers compared to 2021. Two tone references are sitting forever without being sold. Full PM as well. The market is broken and there are no buyers like a few years ago.

[Edgeworth]

Beautiful watch. I would worry about the high polished WG center links on the oyster bracelet and I would wind up babying it. Which is ok if you’ve already got a daily. Anyway, yes, this is a watch that you can easily find mint B&P for under retail from a reliable seller. And 15-20% under retail at those terms is a good find. Very fair price if you trust the seller and love the piece

[BriansRolex]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Of course it won't happen anytime soon as the AD needs to maintain the image of unobtainability. Imagine if AD would start offering 15% for a PM Sub but telling that you have to wait 1 year for a regular Sub. Something would sound off to a regular Joe customer. This way the crayon eater and window licker is happy when he gets a call for a full PM Sub, even though he can get it tomorrow at 15% OFF

On the other hand, grey dealers do not have this luxury and they have to follow the market sentiment. We will start seeing discounts at the grey dealers first - we already are actually.

The issue in todays market is that hardly anything moves at the grey dealers compared to 2021. Two tone references are sitting forever without being sold. Full PM as well. The market is broken and there are no buyers like a few years ago.

Not sure where you're getting this info from but watches are moving nonstop at grey dealers maybe not in the same speed in which they were in 2021 but they are definitely moving there's no shortage of buyers at least in my market

[amh]

WG looks like SS. The wearer paid for the "heft."

[Osmin]

Originally Posted by BriansRolex

Not sure where you're getting this info from but watches are moving nonstop at grey dealers maybe not in the same speed in which they were in 2021 but they are definitely moving there's no shortage of buyers at least in my market

Sure, keep the story up. Otherwise whole grey market crashes.
For sub SS I would agree, but PM Subs. Who is buying those? Exactly, no one! That’s why we see these huge discounts on those models.

[Tim Plains]

Good question. My guess is he got it in a larger bundle deal. Small profit, break even, slight loss on the white gold Submariner but the overall bundle makes up for it.

[Bartolo]

Originally Posted by Rickynelson

Hi all,
I’m new to this forum but have been following for years, finally got the courage to write , go easy please:)
I have an option to buy a brand new WG Sub (126619LB) and the price is 15%-20% below retail.
The seller is legit and I have bought from him before (grey dealer) but I just can’t get my head around how a 2023 set gets this low so quick.
I’ve been around to buy a sub (date) at a German airport minus the VAT right before a flight a decade ago but I’m trying to see if I’m missing something.

Many thanks

RN

Your Germain airport purchase was made at an AD. They bought at wholesale.

An AD pays X% below MSPR for the watch. The difference between what they pay and MSRP is called "margin." I dont know what it is these days; years ago on a gold Rolex it was something above 30% anyway.

So if the AD can 'flip' a piece for a very small profit to a gray market dealer, that dealer still has plenty of room to sell to you at a profit as well and in the end it's still double-digits below MSRP. This is how the maths work.

Don't get hung up comparing margins expected from an AD when selling at retail vs. what they'll take from a gray market dealer to just turn a piece of inventory (that they might have to sit on for a while due to its high price) into liquid cash.

[1William]

If the dealer is legitimate then the price offered to you is a good one. You do not know how he obtained the watch or what he has in the watch. With any PM watch the market move of 5-10% by percentages can be significant based on how expensive the watches are. If you buy the watch will you lose money on a sale or trade later? Not sure. I can tell you that in the long run, typically nothing gets cheaper. The big question is do you like the watch and will you wear and enjoy it? If so, step up and get a great reference. If not, pass.

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by BriansRolex

Not sure where you're getting this info from but watches are moving nonstop at grey dealers maybe not in the same speed in which they were in 2021 but they are definitely moving there's no shortage of buyers at least in my market

LoL .. You can check this up yourself .. Just save any BLRO, GRNR or Datejust in your portfolio notepad at Chrono24 and you will see none of those watches moves for months, they are still there ..

Currently, there are dozens of unsold Pepsi and GMT GRNR Two tone that I am following for months that are unsold and new ones just pouring into the market with each passing day. The market is dead, at least in Europe.

[Old Geezer]

The WG Sub never commanded a huge premium during the hype and has been reasonably available from ADs. In a softening market, it stands to reason that it would dip faster and before other models.
The WG Sub has never been a big seller. I guess people spending precious metal money on a watch want something that is obviously precious metal.
I own one that I bought from my AD and really enjoy it

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by BriansRolex

Not sure where you're getting this info from but watches are moving nonstop at grey dealers maybe not in the same speed in which they were in 2021 but they are definitely moving there's no shortage of buyers at least in my market

I don’t know about that. If it’s realistically priced it’ll move. Realistic prices are on the downward trend though. If someone is pricing like it’s May 2023 the watch is not moving. Problem is there is a huge soapstone pricing right now. It
Is comical to watch though


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[Calatrava r]

I think the watch would have been a huge success if they had gone with a sunburst blue dial to match the bezel. I think the blue bezel just sticks out and does not contrast well with the black dial. The previous version had the flat blue dial and sunburst which have really made it pop.

I too am very surprised to see where these are on the used market. I am still considering buying one for myself as I really like a WG Sub. At the moment I would probably still go new at an AD, if i could get one. In my area it is tough to get anything.

[MarioB83]

That Watch is really a banger, at least for my opinion. How can be under MSRP? The high cost? Its something I cannot understand well.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

LoL .. You can check this up yourself .. Just save any BLRO, GRNR or Datejust in your portfolio notepad at Chrono24 and you will see none of those watches moves for months, they are still there ..

Currently, there are dozens of unsold Pepsi and GMT GRNR Two tone that I am following for months that are unsold and new ones just pouring into the market with each passing day. The market is dead, at least in Europe.

I agree with this sentiment as I’ve been tracking a SS sub. The prices are going down on these watches from $14,500 down to $12,500-$13,500.


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[Mystro]

The entire Omega Catalog is sold like this with full display cases to try on and buy any at a discount. You will even get free swag with the purchase.
As for Rolex, PM models have always sold for a higher discount than their SS counterparts.

In general, now is the time to buy any Rolex model in this market dip.

[Giovannibravo]

It is possible. Many won't spend this amount on a watch that looks like its steel counterpart. Personally, I love the 126619LB. I would go for it if you have the means.

[Robf52]

That's a beautiful piece. Jump on it. The market is obviously soft, and I believe it's also a seasonally soft period. I would expect gray prices to firm as the holidays approach.

[Rollei35]

Originally Posted by Rickynelson

Hi all,
I’m new to this forum but have been following for years, finally got the courage to write , go easy please:)
I have an option to buy a brand new WG Sub (126619LB) and the price is 15%-20% below retail.
The seller is legit and I have bought from him before (grey dealer) but I just can’t get my head around how a 2023 set gets this low so quick.
I’ve been around to buy a sub (date) at a German airport minus the VAT right before a flight a decade ago but I’m trying to see if I’m missing something.

Many thanks

RN

people mistaken WG with SS sub is why.

[Bartolo]

Originally Posted by MarioB83

That Watch is really a banger, at least for my opinion. How can be under MSRP? The high cost? Its something I cannot understand well.

I explained it above in this thread.

Why isn't it selling quickly at MSRP? Pure supply and demand. Demand is relatively low right now for $40k+ Rolexes.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

LoL .. You can check this up yourself .. Just save any BLRO, GRNR or Datejust in your portfolio notepad at Chrono24 and you will see none of those watches moves for months, they are still there ..

Currently, there are dozens of unsold Pepsi and GMT GRNR Two tone that I am following for months that are unsold and new ones just pouring into the market with each passing day. The market is dead, at least in Europe.

Sorry, but Chrono is not a proper measure for price or movement. I don’t think you know how listings their work.

Sure, some models move slower than they did at peak, but properly priced Rolex still sells very well on the secondary market. And a Pepsi? Those fly off the shelf, assuming priced correctly.


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[Nads786]

Originally Posted by jb335

Sorry, but Chrono is not a proper measure for price or movement. I don’t think you know how listings their work.

Sure, some models move slower than they did at peak, but properly priced Rolex still sells very well on the secondary market. And a Pepsi? Those fly off the shelf, assuming priced correctly.


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We need a Redfin of the watch world. Give us opening listing, the change listing and final sold price.


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