Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[youthagainsttt]

As people on this forum may know I’m obsessed with watches, even when I’ve just bought one I’d still go out the next day to try on others just for the heck of it.

Been eyeing up some Daydates in the past few days and just asked the dealer how much I’d get if I part exchanged my gold 15500 which is new, even though I’ve got no intention of flipping it but just curious about the p-ex value. Well I was surprised when the 1st dealer said he wouldn’t take it in.

So I went to another dealer in a different area of HK, he also said the same thing. And this happened another 2 more times. Why could this be? Is it because the value of AP is quite volatile recently & they’ve been burnt? But then again all watches have gone down a bit recently. The 2nd shop also mentioned they only trade Rolex & have stopped trading any other brand.

Anyone have any ideas on this?

[dmash]

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

[Watchwoody]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

This is spot on.

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by Watchwoody

This is spot on.

100% spot on

[sfbatman007]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

I can't wait for this moment. Tired of being treated like a peasant by these ADs.

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[LUDA]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Exactly how I see it.

When I saw the 15500 go from 40 to 80K I got quite scared until I got mine, I was not sure how long I would have to wait seing there was even more demand... once I got it all good, it can drop to retail now, I am good.

[GarageBMW]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Absolutely spot on. Couldn't have said it better

[Harry_S]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

💯 agree with this sentiment.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows….


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[Mini2]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows….


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I think you might be right.
Don't want to judge but you can see how long a few of us have been around for a while before any crazy times. This should hold some weight.
The fun is literally just round the corner, patience is a virtue

[psm11]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows….


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It is kind of a bummer however that MSRP for these pieces has gone through the roof in the last 1.5 years. I do OK, but I am by no means a whale or extremely wealthy. A Royal Oak is something I have saved for for years to mark a career milestone. With the price increases I have had to continue to top off my Royal Oak fund a couple thousand every year (which is significant to me). With the price increases an "entry level" RO is now almost $30k after taxes. I want to support my boutique and build the relationship but if the RO I want ends up going under retail it will be really tough not to take advantage. The new 43 MM ROO I like is now selling significantly under retail and it would be really hard to stomach forking over an extra 8-10k at the boutique just to build the relationship.

[gesus]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows….

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Nicely said. I do want to mention, and it's not specific to AP, but continuing to be loyal to AD's after the shenanigan's they've been pulling the last number of years will be tough.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by gesus

Nicely said. I do want to mention, and it's not specific to AP, but continuing to be loyal to AD's after the shenanigan's they've been pulling the last number of years will be tough.

THIS! Curious to see how much they change if demand continues to slide. My AP experience has been hit or miss but I have written off Rolex. I bought my Batgirl for a very slight premium on the grey market after the horrible treatment by ADs here in LA.

Premature eye roll at the folks who will inevitably come on here and defend their boutique/AD/SA and try to excuse the horrible behavior and drone on about how important it is we all support the ADs and boutiques and to not buy grey.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by psm11

THIS! Curious to see how much they change if demand continues to slide. My AP experience has been hit or miss but I have written off Rolex. I bought my Batgirl for a very slight premium on the grey market after the horrible treatment by ADs here in LA.

Premature eye roll at the folks who will inevitably come on here and defend their boutique/AD/SA and try to excuse the horrible behavior and drone on about how important it is we all support the ADs and boutiques and to not buy grey.

What's there to "eye roll"? Many here have received excellent service from their boutiques, without being athletes, celebrities or super-rich. Why is that less worthy of a mention than bad experiences (often by those who were just too late to the party, for whatever reason).

[red1108nyc]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Bravo

Tracking pricing is for fun. You have to own these watches like they are worth “zero” and truly enjoy them. This market will flush out a lot of “collectors” in transit. Low hanging fruit days are in the rear view mirror I think.

[AperolSpritz]

Originally Posted by red1108nyc

Bravo

Tracking pricing is for fun. You have to own these watches like they are worth “zero” and truly enjoy them. This market will flush out a lot of “collectors” in transit. Low hanging fruit days are in the rear view mirror I think.

Couldn't agree more...

BUT, I know that my own personal collector journey will get more difficult... at home. As I have been using the current market dynamic with my wife to justify some of my last pricier incomings.

"Honey, I couldn't possibly refuse that new AP/PP. Yes I know it's $100k but it actually is worth 2x more. You should actually thank me. I didn't do it for me. I did it for us, for the family! It's a sacrifice in fact!!!"

but partially true

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by AperolSpritz

Couldn't agree more...

BUT, I know that my own personal collector journey will get more difficult... at home. As I have been using the current market dynamic with my wife to justify some of my last pricier incomings.

"Honey, I couldn't possibly refuse that new AP/PP. Yes I know it's $100k but it actually is worth 2x more. You should actually thank me. I didn't do it for me. I did it for us, for the family! It's a sacrifice in fact!!!"

but partially true

So true, so true.

[Marast-66]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Bravo.


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[jnewman311]

Originally Posted by Marast-66

Bravo.


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Wait until people who paid less for the watches when the retail prices were much less start selling for prices close to the new retail prices. thats when the fun begins.

[SMD]

Most amazing thing about this thread — people apparently still use Facebook!

[psm11]

Originally Posted by SMD

Most amazing thing about this thread — people apparently still use Facebook!

HAHAHA great call! I sent a pic of a watch on MODA to a friend who completely ignored the watch and instead focused on the fact that I was using my computer to access Facebook. I guess that is a faux pas these days. App only lol.

[pav333hp]

Originally Posted by SMD

Most amazing thing about this thread — people apparently still use Facebook!

I actually use FB a lot, specifically for groups - cars, watches, events, etc. I find them much more interesting and engaging to forums tbh. Outside of watches, I'm also a car enthusiast, so part of several car groups on FB and they are really good.

[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by youthagainsttt

As people on this forum may know I’m obsessed with watches, even when I’ve just bought one I’d still go out the next day to try on others just for the heck of it.

Been eyeing up some Daydates in the past few days and just asked the dealer how much I’d get if I part exchanged my gold 15500 which is new, even though I’ve got no intention of flipping it but just curious about the p-ex value. Well I was surprised when the 1st dealer said he wouldn’t take it in.

So I went to another dealer in a different area of HK, he also said the same thing. And this happened another 2 more times. Why could this be? Is it because the value of AP is quite volatile recently & they’ve been burnt? But then again all watches have gone down a bit recently. The 2nd shop also mentioned they only trade Rolex & have stopped trading any other brand.

Anyone have any ideas on this?

Better hope the HK boutique doesn't figure out who you are, or that will be your last AP to flip

[macrowatch]

Rolex is king like USD. You would think HKD or GBP or BTH should be fine in most of the world, but sometimes you need dollars.

Also, I think sometimes even if a piece is desirable, it’s just not liquid enough to know what it’s worth. Try to value a AP PQ for example, no data points. Even Platona changed hands often enough each week to mark the inventory.

[conkers]

I think it is a balance sheet issue for most grey dealers. Putting 15k of cash into a sports Rolex is much easier and less risky than putting say 80k of balance sheet into a gold 15500 which might take a while to shift. Many grey dealers have far too much stock, a good portion of which may be underwater already and purchased on leverage. It is a very difficult time for these guys and many won’t make it.

[capjand1]

All grey dealers rather buy seven 15-20k SS Rolex watches than take on one 100k precious metal AP.

[thekman]

This has been ongoing for months now, OP. I had tried to sell a couple of what are considered to be "hot watches" to some of the bigger greys in the US. Most of them refused to even make a bid. Even though they were advertising the same watches for 2-3xMSRP on their websites. I ended up selling privately.

[MP777]

Good news for people buying to own and not to flip

[HMHM]

Most of the greys are so filled with stock that it’s not surprising they no longer want to buy. Even worse is that most of their stock are bought at the peak of the market. It’s hard to have any empathy for them during this sluggish period as they were not the most transparent/honest people in business. Recently a member posted here that he tried to trade a 50th anniversary 15550 for a 116500LN white dial and the highest offer he got was a straight trade with no cash top up. They reap what they sow if they crash and burn!

[cascavel]

Dealers either cannot get financing, they've maxed out their financing or interest rates are going up so much that they can't hang on to inventory due to increased financing costs.