ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
|
22 January 2024, 12:18 PM | #1 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2024
Location: Holden Beach, NC
Posts: 63
|
Quote:
|
|
21 January 2024, 01:33 AM | #2 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Tampa, Florida
Watch: 116610LV
Posts: 2,442
|
Quote:
__________________
126710BLRO-0001 / 116610LV / 116613LB / Silver Snoopy / PAM24 / PAM111 |
|
21 January 2024, 11:07 AM | #3 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
|
Quote:
|
|
21 January 2024, 12:05 AM | #4 |
"TRF" Life Patron
Join Date: Jun 2005
Real Name: Peter
Location: Llanfairpwllgwyng
Watch: ing you.
Posts: 52,377
|
When Rolex watches stop being thought of as little more than £$€ objects and little more.
__________________
ICom Pro3 All posts are my own opinion and my opinion only. "The clock of life is wound but once, and no man has the power to tell just when the hands will stop. Now is the only time you actually own the time, Place no faith in time, for the clock may soon be still for ever." Good Judgement comes from experience,experience comes from Bad Judgement,.Buy quality, cry once; buy cheap, cry again and again. www.mc0yad.club Second in command CEO and left handed watch winder |
21 January 2024, 01:32 AM | #5 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2011
Real Name: JC
Location: Korea
Posts: 450
|
Drop, drop!
|
21 January 2024, 02:12 AM | #6 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: UK
Posts: 773
|
When they stop being fashionable - when the influencers get bored, and celebrities move on to something else.
I’m sure by 2030, people will be laughing about everyone wanting a Rolex in the early 2020s |
21 January 2024, 10:57 PM | #7 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Real Name: D'OH!
Location: Kentucky
Watch: Rolex-1 Tudor-3
Posts: 35,824
|
A week from Thursday.
dP
__________________
TRF Member# 1668 Bass Player in TRF "AFTER DARK" Bar & NightClub Band Commander-in-Chief of The Nylon Nation The Crown & Shield Club Honorary Member of P-Club |
21 January 2024, 11:57 PM | #8 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2016
Real Name: Niki
Location: UK
Watch: Too many
Posts: 675
|
|
22 January 2024, 06:23 AM | #9 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Colorado
Watch: your time
Posts: 1,428
|
|
22 January 2024, 02:19 AM | #10 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2023
Location: Earth
Posts: 37
|
Most demand for Rolex of late was based on the premise that there would be more demand soon after and forever more. Many watches were sold purely for speculative reasons.
That is not the case now. Now the axe has fallen and has a long swing down. Anyone who is thinking the very unique circumstances of the last 3 years are going to be the norm forever I believe are mistaken. As for the economy being good. I'm not sure what planet you live on, but the USA is in terrible state. You owe $250k+ as a tax payer the second you are born.... China is facing deomgraphic collapse. Just because CNN or whever is saying it is great, it doesn't change the fact inflation is still out of control and cost of living for many is unmanageable. |
22 January 2024, 08:28 AM | #11 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Florida
Watch: Sub, DJ41, GMT
Posts: 7,174
|
Quote:
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
|
22 January 2024, 06:03 AM | #12 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2023
Real Name: Dumbledor
Location: Westerlands
Watch: CASIO A168W
Posts: 19
|
I think everything gonna go back to how it always was and below retail. SS gmts and SS daytonas and other stuff like tifany op etc will drop but still keep a premium. Yes, today there is a shortage of these watches because demand became crazy as they became investments but this is only the past few years. If Rolex keeps making over a million watches and increasing prices, I am convinced the demand won't be like this in 10 years. over 10 million new watches in the market assuming they don't double production and the demand stays the same that's ridiculous.
|
22 January 2024, 07:42 AM | #13 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: U.S.A.
Watch: SD43
Posts: 3,142
|
When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?
Quote:
Exactly. And the way 90% of owners maintain the pristine condition of their watches…you’ll have 10 million plus the already millions in circulation all looking new. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
|
22 January 2024, 09:11 AM | #14 |
2024 ROLEX DATEJUST41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Real Name: PaulG
Location: Georgia
Posts: 40,896
|
When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?
I’m not sure “bottom out” is ever a term for the secondary market.
Maybe “crossover” is better. That is, in terms of MSRP. Meaning the point where BNIB SS on secondary market is at or below MSRP. I don’t see it as a time call as much as a conditional call - like a serious depression that kills excess demand completely. I don’t see it happening in the next year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
__________________
Does anyone really know what time it is? |
22 January 2024, 10:31 AM | #15 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 792
|
The problem with anyone calling for a sharp drop is that the market is dynamic.
Recession hits, demand is lower, inflation (already much more controlled) turns to deflation. Deflation plus interest rates at 5%+ in US means Fed can cut aggressively. Fed cutting buoys spirits, causes assets to rebound after a temp drop and all starts over. Time and time again - so long as you aren’t panic selling at bottoms or FOMO buying at tops, these recession calls aren’t changing much absent a systemic shock (2009). So, I see watches getting easier to get, the real grails still being elusive and at significant premiums. If prices drop faster it will be due to a sharper macro decline. By the time you have time to buy some watches at those lower prices the moves will already be in place to inflate prices back up again. So for those salivating on the sidelines, if this plays out, be quick… Oh, and several trillion dollars are on the sidelines so don’t expect too big a bargain either ;-) |
22 January 2024, 11:52 AM | #16 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Real Name: David
Location: Socal
Watch: Patek 3970
Posts: 215
|
Prices have taken a hit in the pre-owned mkt. I've purchased an AP diver for about 50% of its peak $ which is about 30% off retail, several vintage rolex(s) for around 40% off their highs, and 3 PM sports model below msrp.
|
22 January 2024, 12:53 PM | #17 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2023
Location: Earth
Posts: 37
|
Quote:
The last 3 years were a unique situation, and there is absolutely nothing to support that continuing; all trends show the bubble has firmly burst, now it's just a case of who blinks first. Based on close to 100 years of the watch market it would be more normal for a return to 2015-19 type market, even if the economy is excellent, which it isn't. A normal economy would suggest a return to normal. Normal is walk in for everything except a few particular models, discounts on many, and grey/used prices below msrp. Rolex and watch sales of late were driven by demand of people wanting to buy them as they assumed even greater demand would follow. It no longer is. The hype train has moved on. I'd also bet that a solid 25-50% of all Rolex demand right now is people who are chasing them, simply because they are still seen as hard to get. But they are becomming more easily available by the day, so the FOMO people will lose all interest when they're actually available. |
|
22 January 2024, 01:25 PM | #18 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 792
|
Quote:
I said most watches will be easier to get but the highly demanded ones will remain at significant premiums. This was the case in 2015-2019 too… |
|
22 January 2024, 02:13 PM | #19 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Orange County, CA
Watch: SD43
Posts: 446
|
Many of us can recall when you could go to a place like Singapore in the 1990s and find that every Hour Glass or Cortina store had a wide array of sport Rolex models, with the only exception being a Daytona. FOMO wasn’t a thing.
|
22 January 2024, 02:34 PM | #20 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2023
Location: Hong kong
Posts: 31
|
It will bottom when the SA of my regular AD stop messaging me offers of watches that I do not want... literally every week. Im done with modern rolex
|
23 January 2024, 12:40 AM | #21 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Tejas
Watch: Various
Posts: 5,082
|
|
22 January 2024, 02:36 PM | #22 |
2024 ROLEX DATEJUST41 X2 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 442
|
You'll know secondary market prices have bottomed 3-6 months after they actually do - no one can pick a bottom. I think the "good old days" of Rolex availability will never return, but, I also don't think we'll return to the March 2022 crazy. Rolex will continue to shift to boutiques, more watches like the Le Mans will appear - PM, open case back, maybe some hand made watches to compete with Patek, etc. In reality, they can't sell +1M watches a year and abandon the SS and TT base models.
|
23 January 2024, 06:40 AM | #23 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
|
Quote:
|
|
23 January 2024, 09:05 AM | #24 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2023
Location: Arizona
Posts: 32
|
|
23 January 2024, 03:52 PM | #25 | |
2024 ROLEX DATEJUST41 X2 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 442
|
Quote:
Who really knows, I could just as easily be wrong, but I'm bored on a Monday night so might as well pontificate about The Crown. |
|
23 January 2024, 09:05 PM | #26 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
|
Quote:
|
|
6 February 2024, 09:08 PM | #27 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: London
Posts: 397
|
Quote:
They will also try to up the focus on bi-metal and precious metal, where there is far more margin. I read an interview with the had of Patek. He said they didn't make money from selling SS models. They only keep a few around for fans, but otherwise everything is going to precious metal. Obviously they are tiny compared to Rolex, but the sentiment is the same. The main difference is that Rolex sells enough watches to keep a margin for SS, and also knowing they are buoyed by enthusiasts who mostly like SS watches. |
|
10 February 2024, 01:56 AM | #28 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: US
Posts: 91
|
Quote:
I'm sure they make a pretty healthy margin on their $30K precious SS pieces too. They'll have to keep the supply tight so people spend money on their high margin PM pieces. |
|
22 January 2024, 11:22 PM | #29 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2019
Location: Here
Posts: 1,440
|
|
6 February 2024, 12:35 AM | #30 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: NY
Posts: 712
|
What if everybody who wants a Rolex has one?
I came off the sidelines after about 40 years, low interest rates, FOMO etc. My opinion is that some of Rolex demand has been pulled forward due to external influences. There are many, many people who could afford a Rolex ( or a collection) but who have zero interest and never will. |
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.