What is up with the Economy!?

[jmed]

Hi Gang, I hope this finds everybody doing well. I just left my local AD and I cannot believe what he has sitting in his Rolex case. He has a Deep Sea, Milgaus GV, a brand new "G" serial Explorer II white face, and..........yes A BRAND NEW GREEN SUBMARINER, not to mention the usual assortment. He just cannot sell any of these, now I don't live in a large metro area, but still I just cannot believe he cannot "get rid" of the GREEN SUB. I have purchased all of my Rolex from him (6 total) and would love to have the GREEN MONSTER but my wife would kill me, literally kill me if I bought another. What are your thoughts, does everyone really just have less disposable income at the current time?

John

[HL65]

Local AD here has 2 Green Subs in the case. The answer to your question is yes. The consumer is not spending and unemployment is 9.8%--we are in a rough economy--people are keeping their powder dry.

[tulsaokusa]

everyone with less disposable income + more selection of Rolexes = good time to buy

those are my thoughts.

[toph]

Originally Posted by jasonsundberg

everyone with less disposable income + more selection of Rolexes = good time to buy

those are my thoughts.

I actually pretty much agree with this. when in times like this- first thing to fall of peoples purchase list is luxury goods. Especially if they already have 1, 2 or more

[tulsaokusa]

Originally Posted by toph

I actually pretty much agree with this. when in times like this- first thing to fall of peoples purchase list is luxury goods. Especially if they already have 1, 2 or more

Those who did well in the Great Depression were liquid. They traded in their cash for assets AFTER the economy fell.

We haven't seen bread lines yet, except at Panera during lunchtime.

[toph]

Originally Posted by jasonsundberg

Those who did well in the Great Depression were liquid. They traded in their cash for assets AFTER the economy fell.

We haven't seen bread lines yet, except at Panera during lunchtime.

yes but not if they don't have any cash. not everyone who wears a rolex is neccessarily wealthy.

[Watch Professor]

Is your AD discounting the Green Monster?

[tulsaokusa]

Originally Posted by toph

yes but not if they don't have any cash. not everyone who wears a rolex is neccessarily wealthy.

The time to get liquid is when everyone is pumping a failing economy with investments. To me... a Rolex is as liquid as they come for watches.

[Frankie13]

Saw a Explorer white face at my AD today as well and a Daytona white dial, "M" serial Sub LV, older style Sub and they all BNIB!

[skypilot]

I have been told for two years that the economy is bad but that doesn't seem to prevent me from having to wait for a table at our favorite restaurants. I hear a lot about unemployment and I know a couple of unemployed people but I don't know anyone who is unemployed THAT HAS A SKILL, KNOWS HOW TO DO ANYTHING. The day of the laborer is over, computers are doing the unskilled jobs now. -- Maybe the smart money is waiting for more panic leading to better buying opportunities.

[tulsaokusa]

Originally Posted by skypilot

I have been told for two years that the economy is bad but that doesn't seem to prevent me from having to wait for a table at our favorite restaurants. I hear a lot about unemployment and I know a couple of unemployed people but I don't know anyone who is unemployed THAT HAS A SKILL, KNOWS HOW TO DO ANYTHING. The day of the laborer is over, computers are doing the unskilled jobs now. -- Maybe the smart money is waiting for more panic leading to better buying opportunities.

The quickest way to gauge the economy in America is to look at the movement of freight. 2009 freight was moving very very very slow, by comparison to freight movement in 2008.

2010 freight?

It is moving... moving hard and fast.

Trust me, I'm a trucker.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by toph

yes but not if they don't have any cash. not everyone who wears a rolex is neccessarily wealthy.

Ain't that the truth!

But, hey, we have our priorities straight, don't we?

[jmed]

Originally Posted by Watch Professor

Is your AD discounting the Green Monster?

Not that I am aware of, but I am seriously not even in a position to ask as I am not in the "buying" mode. Doubt they will, economy or not my experience with my original LV back in 2004, no discount, my white face Daytona, no discount, my GMT IIc, no discount, my Plat. Yachtie, big discount, never seen them discount the rare/new models.

John

[toph]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

Ain't that the truth!

But, hey, we have our priorities straight, don't we?

well we think we do

[Kuya]

As mentioned, this is a buyers market in most comsumables, including watches.

I have noticed that prices for some Rolex models have come down a little, as inventories are stagnant. Of course gold models have risen with the increase in price of gold.

In my opinion, the unemploymet figure is higher than what is being told. I think it is closer to 28%, when you figure in the elements of society that the base calculations don't use. Pay close attention to what the federal reserve says next wednesday, it might be a gamble approach to rates, but the inflation risk is high.

I think this is a good time to purchase a fine watch like Rolex. It has world class recognition and value.

[psv]

I actually got calls from two ADs TODAY where I have visited during the last couple of months and they said they wouldn't discount, both now called ME and offered discount, even on the new Sub C.

[Bedrock]

Ten percent unemployment is probably not a good thing.

[mbrokerny]

Here in NYC the recession is almost non-existent. Stores are packed, bars and restaurants are crowded and people are buying things. I'm very jaded from living here, its sad.

It also seems that there are no shortage of buyers on this site, almost every watch posted in the Sales Corner is sold, and unless they are being sold at steep discounts from whats posted, its seems prices are remaining pretty constant.

[Zed Homme]

Originally Posted by mbrokerny

Here in NYC the recession is almost non-existent. Stores are packed, bars and restaurants are crowded and people are buying things. I'm very jaded from living here, its sad.

It also seems that there are no shortage of buyers on this site, almost every watch posted in the Sales Corner is sold, and unless they are being sold at steep discounts from whats posted, its seems prices are remaining pretty constant.

While I agree that NYC hasnt taken the hit that other cities have, I cannot agree with your statement. Personally, I am shocked at how many empty storefronts there are on 5th Ave. I also seem to get into any restaurant whenever I want now. The rent I'm paying is 20% cheaper than it was in 2007 and I havent moved. The streets are packed with tourists, but if you go in the stores, they're empty....

[mbrokerny]

Maybe I exaggerated slightly as I too have noticed plenty of empty store fronts, but every restaurant I go to is packed on the weekends and usually most places I go to after work are very busy.

I went to lunch in Soho today and there were plenty of "locals" buying in the stores right next to the foreigners.

20% off of 2007 is still too much compared to everybody else, Im sure that the price you (and I) pay for rent is exponentially higher than most others here. This is a discussion for another day however.

The point im trying to make is that we are much better off than most others. Id find somebody hard pressed to find 2 Green LV's at an AD here.

[Danand]

At home the economy is in pretty good shape, but I am on vacation in Orlando and I am somewhat shocked at the number of stores and restaurants that are out of business. Also in the area near the Kennedy space centre there are an incredible number of vacant stores and homes. So I guess my point is there are certainly some areas that have been badly hit by the economy and so it shouldn't come as a surprise that luxury goods will take a hit. For those of us that can afford these luxuries we should be very grateful, and humble.

[tulsaokusa]

Originally Posted by Danand

At home the economy is in pretty good shape, but I am on vacation in Orlando and I am somewhat shocked at the number of stores and restaurants that are out of business. Also in the area near the Kennedy space centre there are an incredible number of vacant stores and homes. So I guess my point is there are certainly some areas that have been badly hit by the economy and so it shouldn't come as a surprise that luxury goods will take a hit. For those of us that can afford these luxuries we should be very grateful, and humble.

Spot on. I am in a different city in America nearly every day. Some areas have been hit hard. Others are status quo. But all in all... you feel the impact the more you travel.

Grateful and humble, indeed.

[PeteNYC13]

Even at 10% unenployment, that is 90% employment. If you are one of the unfortunate ones who lost your job, it sucks if it was 1%, but in real numbers, even in GREAT years, the unemployment rate in the USA is over 4%. So, it's really "only" six out of 100 more folks not working. There are a lot more folks not working but certain areas are hit much, much harder than others. What is the unemployment for factory workers, for certain minority groups, for certain trades? etc. While some cities like New York may not be feeling the full 10%, you have other cities like Detroit or Las Vegas that are well over 14% unemployment. Also, if you are in an industry or profession that is "recession proof", consider yourself lucky... if you are in a trade or industry that relies on the housing market, you are probably feeling it worse than most.

I agree with many of the posters, while my income isn't what it could be in a "good" market, I am fortunate to be working and use it as a buying opportunity -for lot's of things, including the three Rolexes we have purchased in the last two years. I think lack of demand in the economy made the SS Daytona that eluded me available and I was fortunate to jump at the opportunity. I also have used the down market to get a discount on furniture, car etc. I guess if you are one of the 90%, enjoy...if you are one of the 10%, Good Luck! It has to turn around soon - doesn't it!?!?

[tulsaokusa]

If the USD continues in its downward spiral against other world currencies, and Rolex continues in its price increases - is a Rolex a good investment for an American?

The short answer IMO is yes.

[camster]

To the Original Poster Jmed. I cannot believe you are so out of touch with reality. Have you been living under a rock for the past 5 years? Do you have a remote clue that unemployment is around 10%? Thats what our government tells us. I believe its actually much higher. This greed that has taken over the country will take 100 years to fix. You either inherited an outrageous amount of money and dont have to worry about anything. Or B.You really have no idea what is going on on the world and you really do reside under a pile of rocks.

[franklin7]

Originally Posted by camster

To the Original Poster Jmed. I cannot believe you are so out of touch with reality. Have you been living under a rock for the past 5 years? Do you have a remote clue that unemployment is around 10%? Thats what our government tells us. I believe its actually much higher. This greed that has taken over the country will take 100 years to fix. You either inherited an outrageous amount of money and dont have to worry about anything. Or B.You really have no idea what is going on on the world and you really do reside under a pile of rocks.

Hey, don't be too harsh on Jmed, as there are always buyers for Rolex watches, even in a recession. The observation was not inherently offensive as there's money out there for those wanting to buy. The 'used' market for Rolex watches is where the real action can be found and of course, the bargains! It could be tough for AD's for a while, though I doubt any will cease trading. Those 'window' watches will sell eventually.

Some would say that owning or buying a Rolex during a recession is 'outrageous'. I wouldn't agree.

Incidentally, I'd love to inherit an outrageous amount of money ! ..How much would that be?

[L-16610]

Originally Posted by jmed

Hi Gang, I hope this finds everybody doing well. I just left my local AD and I cannot believe what he has sitting in his Rolex case. He has a Deep Sea, Milgaus GV, a brand new "G" serial Explorer II white face, and..........yes A BRAND NEW GREEN SUBMARINER, not to mention the usual assortment. He just cannot sell any of these, now I don't live in a large metro area, but still I just cannot believe he cannot "get rid" of the GREEN SUB. I have purchased all of my Rolex from him (6 total) and would love to have the GREEN MONSTER but my wife would kill me, literally kill me if I bought another. What are your thoughts, does everyone really just have less disposable income at the current time?

John

it's mass production so it's normal they are available.
It has ALWAYS been so. Since Rolex started making watches

Only in 2006-2007-2008 new models were hard to get in the beginning but that is the exception and not the rule !

[jeremyam]

Originally Posted by jmed

Hi Gang, I hope this finds everybody doing well. I just left my local AD and I cannot believe what he has sitting in his Rolex case. He has a Deep Sea, Milgaus GV, a brand new "G" serial Explorer II white face, and..........yes A BRAND NEW GREEN SUBMARINER, not to mention the usual assortment. He just cannot sell any of these, now I don't live in a large metro area, but still I just cannot believe he cannot "get rid" of the GREEN SUB. I have purchased all of my Rolex from him (6 total) and would love to have the GREEN MONSTER but my wife would kill me, literally kill me if I bought another. What are your thoughts, does everyone really just have less disposable income at the current time?

John

Americans are in a holding pattern. The economy has been crummy for over 2 years now and people have less money, perception of the need to save has increased and "discretionary" spending has been cut- across retail segments. People are waiting for unemployment numbers to drop below the dd (10%+). What state are you in? Where you live will greatly effect the economic climate. I would say in general that people do have less money to spend. Anyone with investments is probably down from 2-3 years ago, most home-owners have seen a decrease in value of property, inflation concerns are rising so, yes, i do believe folks have less disposable income.

[zak98]

Originally Posted by jasonsundberg

The time to get liquid is when everyone is pumping a failing economy with investments. To me... a Rolex is as liquid as they come for watches.

agree! cash on your wrist basically. in mostly any country in the world. that is pretty liquid.

[Cru Jones]

.................or, just to say, maybe instead of blaming the economy, it's just that the Hulk is a niche product with limited appeal outside of the fiercely loyal and happily satisfied WIS's that have snatched up the initial few?