Grey prices falling

[amh]

I've been tracking SD43 prices here for a couple years. We've gone past the peak and a BNIB SD43 can now be found for less than 13k. Even if you get "the call" from your local AD you'd pay this assuming 8% sales tax : 11350*10.8 = 12258. Established greys are still asking for a lot more but casual flippers are only making about $300-500.

IMO the big SS famine will soon be over. When the grey market reaches [MSRP+Tax] waiting lists will be meaningless. Flippers will also stop flipping.
The Christmas season will keep prices up for a few months but I expect market stability next year. The bubble will not burst, it will simply deflate.

[Finslayer83]

Folks said the same last year.

[JasonBetts]

Originally Posted by amh

IMO the big SS famine will soon be over.

From where i come from, market has definitely corrected between 15-20% especially for the hot SS sports like batman, hulk, sd43 etc.


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[ap1]

Could be, let’s see. Can’t see gmts and Daytona’s dropping too much

[returntorolex]

Originally Posted by amh

I've been tracking SD43 prices here for a couple years. We've gone past the peak and a BNIB SD43 can now be found for less than 13k. Even if you get "the call" from your local AD you'd pay this assuming 8% sales tax : 11350*10.8 = 12258. Established greys are still asking for a lot more but casual flippers are only making about $300-500.

IMO the big SS famine will soon be over. When the grey market reaches [MSRP+Tax] waiting lists will be meaningless. Flippers will also stop flipping.
The Christmas season will keep prices up for a few months but I expect market stability next year. The bubble will not burst, it will simply deflate.

Was thrown off by your math for just a sec....got the decimal point one place to the right.

[teabags001]

Originally Posted by amh

I've been tracking SD43 prices here for a couple years. We've gone past the peak and a BNIB SD43 can now be found for less than 13k. Even if you get "the call" from your local AD you'd pay this assuming 8% sales tax : 11350*10.8 = 12258. Established greys are still asking for a lot more but casual flippers are only making about $300-500.

IMO the big SS famine will soon be over. When the grey market reaches [MSRP+Tax] waiting lists will be meaningless. Flippers will also stop flipping.
The Christmas season will keep prices up for a few months but I expect market stability next year. The bubble will not burst, it will simply deflate.

Hope this happens. I think you said it perfectly. When there is no profit to flip watches then we can actually buy them from the ADs and they will feel the pain of laughing off so many of us and in turn we bought other watches and brands. When you are told you can’t even get a DJ41 without having to wait months you know the market is crazy. I mean there are only so many people who are willing to pay a 50 percent or more premium on a watch. Rolex will always be in demand but for what the gray market prices are fit them there are too many other watches or cars to buy for that kind of money lo


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[trippinjimmy]

Fwiw, I saw a stainless sd43 in the case at AD in Omaha 8 days ago.

I’ve never seen any stainless sports in their case save for a milgauss.

That to me suggests things must be slowing down somewhat in particular geographical locales.


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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by ap1

could be, let’s see. Can’t see gmts and daytona’s dropping too much

+1

[SkyJuice]

Wish this happen in down south...

[mmaggi]

I've been tracking BLNRs on Chrono24 for about 6 months. There are currently 9 used selling at $13,500 or less, 2 of them are selling at less than $13k. 6 months ago you couldn't find one for less than $15k.

Currently there are new for slightly less than $15k.

[Art 1]

I have noticed too the prices are coming down expect the Daytona, but who knows if they are selling at asking prices.

[Sandpit]

It’s definitely happening and those folks were saying “it’s the summer lull” will have to think of other reasons and excuses for it.

Personally I think it’s a combination of general financial market sentiment and (possibly) a case that people are starting to move on either because they’re becoming less “hot” or they’re sick of the game.

[Podmornica]

More and more GMTs are being produced as we speak. The vast majority of folks with the money already bought at 100% premium. It is obvious that the current situation is unsustainable. Also, all those BLROs are moving really slow at $16K, if at all.

[Ssunnylee24]

Explorer 214270 was about 5.5-6k 3-4 months ago, they are up to 7ks now.
I dont see SS sports prices fallin.

[Sublovin]

As annoying as the constant dollars and cents talk is, I am really enjoying these “price is falling” posts the past few days. I have been saying for 2 years that a market correction will happen, and hopefully this is the start!

[Chaching]

[Fat_ninja]

When the prices fall enough... one day they will sell me a Rolex!

[offrdmania]

Im sure prices will go back up just before Christmas.

[peterpl]

Here come the influx of threads now regarding falling prices.

6-12 months ago every thread was about how prices keep rising forever. Now there are numerous threads about falling SS Rolex prices.

Come on now seriously - who was that naive to think these damn mass produced watches would increase forever and indefinitely? LOL

Falling prices was bound to happen sooner or later. These things should never have reached these values in the first place.

[GoingPlaces]

There is a definite softening but that's what it is, a "softening". Don't expect prices to come crashing down to MSRP or even close. The demand is tremendous, it's still years away for many of these watches.

[Saltzy]

I had a AD ask me if I wanted to try on an SD43 they had sitting in the case in a packed store yesterday in midtown NYC.

[RX0]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

When the prices fall enough... one day they will sell me a Rolex!

Lol which Rolex do you want to buy? Batman, Daytona, or Pepsi

[dysert]

The SD43 is a big watch on most people which is why I love my SD4K. I have both.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by RX0

Lol which Rolex do you want to buy? Batman, Daytona, or Pepsi

Any. They won’t sell me any. All they want to sell me is pateks with the exception of this 1 tudor.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Any. They won’t sell me any. All they want to sell me is pateks with the exception of this 1 tudor.

LOL - that RG Patek you own you can buy every single hot SS model and have change left over - stop playin'

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by peterpl

LOL - that RG Patek you own you can buy every single hot SS model and have change left over - stop playin'

I can’t sell it. It’s a famous crooked T stamp.

[rolexgiants]

Originally Posted by Saltzy

I had a AD ask me if I wanted to try on an SD43 they had sitting in the case in a packed store yesterday in midtown NYC.

I’m in Manhattan, would you be so kind to tell me what AD this was?
Thanks in advance.

[Saltzy]

Originally Posted by rolexgiants

I’m in Manhattan, would you be so kind to tell me what AD this was?
Thanks in advance.

The boutique in the Rolex building.

I was tipsy and in a rush and didn't even try it on, which I should have.

[Saltzy]

Hmmmm.....should I have bought the damn thing?

Oops.

[amilch]

I really dont see SS Daytonas coming down much.