It's happening....

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by askdanny

5-10% BELOW MSRP? Nah, the global demand is way too strong to meet current supply levels. Again, I hope my reply here doesn’t age well, but there is no way we’ll see grey prices be at MSRP or lower. With Instagram flexing, YouTube videos, watch blogs—Rolex is the most reputable brand in the world, vertically integrated and operating out of a tiny country with no room to grow.

Maybe if China stays closed forever…

I think the china thing is over played. I have a lot of friends from china. Most of them are what you’d consider on the higher end of wealthy. Spending 15-25k in the club would be a joke for them. When I asked them about Rolex and what they think, it’s not really a top of mind brand for them. They would consider this low level luxury. Also - this is coming from them not me, wearing a watch doesn’t get as much recognition for them as dripping in designer clothes and flashing hot cars. They would rather spend the big bucks on cars so they can be scene.


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[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by boogiebot

I think the china thing is over played. I have a lot of friend from china. Most of them are what you’d consider on the higher end of wealthy. Spending 15-25k in the club would be a joke for them. When I asked them about Rolex and what they think, it’s not really a top of mind brand for them. They would consider this low level luxury. Also - this is coming from them not me, wearing a watch doesn’t get as much recognition for them as dripping in designer clothes and flashing hot cars. They would rather spend the big bucks on cars so they can be scene.


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+1

UM.....I am lost...Why do people think the Chinese/Asian economies will not follow the downward global markets...And more so, Asia will be a bloodbath compared to modern markets...Its always gone like that....People think they are immune? Just wait.......

[malba2366]

Originally Posted by askdanny

5-10% BELOW MSRP? Nah, the global demand is way too strong to meet current supply levels. Again, I hope my reply here doesn’t age well, but there is no way we’ll see grey prices be at MSRP or lower. With Instagram flexing, YouTube videos, watch blogs—Rolex is the most reputable brand in the world, vertically integrated and operating out of a tiny country with no room to grow.

Maybe if China stays closed forever…

The social media crowd will disappear once the bottom falls out of the market.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

I cant recall who.....But a few weeks ago I said 12-36 months or 24-36 months and someone made a rude comment (not you), as if to say there is no chance the market will depress.... (Could've been another thread)...


They were right, I was wrong....Its way faster than i thought/predicted!!!!

But I still say 12-36 and AD's cases are normal and Grey is 10-30% under MSRP...


Thoughts Mr Froman???

I believe you're referring to this post and thread.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...0&postcount=47

I do agree within next year or so we should see more inventory available for immediate purchase in the AD. Not all references, but the more common Air-Kings, DJs, etc. Pretty much all the ones that everyone passed on due to being less desirable until the last 1-2 years.

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

+1

UM.....I am lost...Why do people think the Chinese/Asian economies will not follow the downward global markets...And more so, Asia will be a bloodbath compared to modern markets...Its always gone like that....People think they are immune? Just wait.......

I don’t know. To be honest I’m not an Econ major and global finance is not my field of expertise. So I’m always hesitant to discuss these kinds of financial things, I don’t like talking out of my ass - like lots of people tend to do. I want to just reiterate, this conversation and information I’m sharing is coming from my close group of personal friends.

It will be interesting to see what happens. What I can say for sure is that a lot of my friends from china that bought Rolex Watches, they bought based on the fact that it was hyped. They loved the fact that it was basically a way of saying F*** you. They still love driving the expensive cars more, but having certain Rolex or AP watches when they were highly over inflated was their way of showing off.


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[rolexonlywatch]

I still blame on social media for pumping the price. Remembered these posts: “I got call today”, “my holy grail watch”, “Finally on my wrist”, “My AD told me”, “waiting list”, so on…..RME


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[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

I believe you're referring to this post and thread.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...0&postcount=47

I do agree within next year or so we should see more inventory available for immediate purchase in the AD. Not all references, but the more common Air-Kings, DJs, etc. Pretty much all the ones that everyone passed on due to being less desirable until the last 1-2 years.

Thats the one!!!

[Jaypremium]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Look at this auction. Its the new dd with green lacquer dial. Its only topping at 77k and no more bids. This used to be sold lately for more than 100k




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Ive seen it listed for 100k never ever ever sold !


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[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by Jaypremium

Ive seen it listed for 100k never ever ever sold !


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It’s crazy because the first one ever listed in Moda a couple weeks ago sold for $140k at auction.

[Jaypremium]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

It’s crazy because the first one ever listed in Moda a couple weeks ago sold for $140k at auction.

Interesting


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[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by Jaypremium

Interesting


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Understanding...People will now hold...and hold...and hold.....This will play out much longer than the way up......

[Moondoggy]

It's happening alright.

[rolexonlywatch]

Nothing is more pleasurable than watching those flippers and grey market got burn. Smoke those moth3rfcukers


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[Moondoggy]

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=848506

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=848506

Just the beginning......

Whats retail on that piece?

[ExplorerI]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=848506

Wow could a grey really have enough margin built in to that thing to not lose a boatload on it?

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

Just the beginning......

Whats retail on that piece?

I think $50k ish?

[MiloDiThernan]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=848506

Oof! Good spot. Thanks.

[Jaypremium]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=848506

Wow this is desperation lmfao


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[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Jaypremium

Wow this is desperation lmfao


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https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=849180

I find this one quite confusing. Started bumping with a higher price then a sudden $30k drop.

Kinda tells me some have no idea how much they should be selling something for.

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=849180

I find this one quite confusing. Started bumping with a higher price then a sudden $30k drop.

Kinda tells me some have no idea how much they should be selling something for.

Yeah I have been watching that one too, I think he was playing the ol' increase the price and you may just find a sucker and if I don't well it doesn't matter as the prices are rising daily, it'll get there soon.

Those days are long gone.

I imagine even the "just a dip" guys are starting to think twice, this ain't no dip, it's the perfect storm fortunately/unfortunately.

[rolexpure]

Where are the guys that said this is the yearly dip that we experience? Nowhere to be seen now.

There is no way this is "just" a dip. Some of the prices and price reductions I reckon some guys are losing a truckload of cash.

When you see prices drop from $200k+ to $150k - I pray the seller never bought that at peak because a grey dealer would never have that margin in a single piece. Losing $50k+ on a single piece is horrible and no one could sustain such losses at this magnitude.

$5k-$10k is significant. A $50k+ loss is business destroying for many smaller dealers.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

Where are the guys that said this is the yearly dip that we experience? Nowhere to be seen now.

Still here, and still unable to see the future with the clarity you claim to have.

[smg8]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Still here, and still unable to see the future with the clarity you claim to have.

Genuine question, are you still denying prices have dropped? Or have you seen enough hard evidence to confirm they indeed have?

[rolexpure]

Originally Posted by smg8

Genuine question, are you still denying prices have dropped? Or have you seen enough hard evidence to confirm they indeed have?

Dont worry its just like any investment forum. There are delusional guys that will never admit to a market dropping even if its right in front of their face.

Its just simply "See no evil, hear no evil" mentality. I think it helps certain individuals sleep better at night. You know when you tell yourself something for long enough your mind starts to believe it