Only 1.13% of Rolexes are flipped

[myporsche]

Originally Posted by padi56

Think some of the newer members possibly live on fantasy island by looking at one source like Chrono24.

Fantasy island

[Roddypeepa]

Don’t know where to start with this really. Math is blowing my mind. 1 per cent yeah right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[asiparks]

Approx watches manufactured over a year Vs one day For Sale ads on a solitary source...

OK, so using your special style of math:

1M watches per year =
~2740 /day made
11307 for sale/day on C24
therefore 400% of Rolex are being flipped on C24.

( can't be arsed to work out the actual percentage, because why bother.)

[mjwalter80]

The entire premise for this thread is based on some of the worst statistical analysis I have ever seen. No way you could come up with this number based on anything on Chrono24.

Watches get sold on ebay, Joma, through walking in to a grey market dealer, pawn shops, private deals, etc.

[absoluteczech]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

I thought I'd do a quick search on Chrono 24 for current 2020-2021 model Rolex watches. only 11307 are for sale of the approx 1,000,000 produced. That's only 1.13% that have been flipped and have made it onto the grey market. There may be others sold from Grey without advertising which might increase it a bit but not to the degree the conspiracy theorists on TRF might want us to believe that ADs sell all their watches to greys directly. Even if ADs got it right 95% of the time and only 5% got flipped I'd still think they were doing a decent job of picking real watch lovers. Just a bit of food for thought.........

What kind of caveman logic is this

[Jerrocop]

I suspected that the real Rolex's were only being sold at Chrono24. This confirms it.

[stockae92]

Around here, it feels more like 95% are flipped, 5% are actually wearer. :D

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Cauhauna

It’s common knowledge enough to be somewhat rooted in truth

But

1- we don’t know how many sports Rolex are made. Maybe 100,000?
2- Chrono24 isn’t the only game in town

To that end, I’d say at least double, if not triple the amount on Chrono24 is the real number of watches being sold, and so we are really talking about 20-30% of all sports Rolex sold are flipped

That would be my guess. 1%?
No way

[Calatrava r]

I do not know what the percentage of retail buyers is who re-sell their watches quickly but I would think it is less than 10 percent in any year. The scarcer the watches get and the higher the used market wholesale buy price is, the more folks will sell. Its just human nature to take profits, even if that was not the intention when buying the watch in the first place.

[ndrs63]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

I thought I'd do a quick search on Chrono 24 for current 2020-2021 model Rolex watches. only 11307 are for sale of the approx 1,000,000 produced. That's only 1.13% that have been flipped and have made it onto the grey market. There may be others sold from Grey without advertising which might increase it a bit but not to the degree the conspiracy theorists on TRF might want us to believe that ADs sell all their watches to greys directly. Even if ADs got it right 95% of the time and only 5% got flipped I'd still think they were doing a decent job of picking real watch lovers. Just a bit of food for thought.........

Your assumption is that bulk of the flipped Rolexes are listed on Chrono24. I cannot tell whether that’s true


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[77T]

Even if the Chrono24 number is accurate, it is a snapshot. The use of Rolex’s annual volume (even if we agree on 1MM) is not a valid statistical model. One would need to calculate actual Chrono24 annual Rolex sales volume to have numerical validity.

But of course Chrono24 is just one channel for flipping (as others have pointed out).

IMHO, there is no logic in the model as put forth nor the conclusion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Chester01]

All BNIB watches flow from Rolex to the gray. Chrono 24 is one snap shot on one day. That does not account for the hundreds of gray dealers that have new stock on the daily, Daytona, GMT’s and the like. Take in mind there are only 380 AD in the world.

Your data is skewed by a good margin. To get the data you are after you would have to track that on a rolling basis along with the countless other gray dealers. But all gray watches and it’s a lot, and they have new stock daily, comes from the AD.

[Brny11]

This logic is very off. I’d be embarrassed if I was OP lol.

[Tavli3]

I know a few grays with a few hundred Rolex not on C24. So this conclusion is based on flawed input


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

I thought I'd do a quick search on Chrono 24 for current 2020-2021 model Rolex watches. only 11307 are for sale of the approx 1,000,000 produced. That's only 1.13% that have been flipped and have made it onto the grey market. There may be others sold from Grey without advertising which might increase it a bit but not to the degree the conspiracy theorists on TRF might want us to believe that ADs sell all their watches to greys directly. Even if ADs got it right 95% of the time and only 5% got flipped I'd still think they were doing a decent job of picking real watch lovers. Just a bit of food for thought.........

Sadly your data is flawed. You’ve used just one sales channel to construct your theory while contemplating unknown manufacturing data.

I base my synopsis on a simple notion. The sellers you call “greys” dwarf by a magnitude of multiple exponentials the available watches on Chrono24.

[donas]

Originally Posted by dnd2984

So many missing variables to make this logic seem sound…

I'm late to the party, you took my exact comment

I won't even go crazy mentioning all of them, how about just a couple - what if the Chrono24 inventory turns over daily, or weekly? If 1.5% are sold every few days on Chrono, then the total is really quite high for the year. (Of course, I know all watches for sale don't sell every day, just exaggerating for the point.) Or maybe, there's only 11307 left for sale from the original 900,000 listed?

[garyk]

Originally Posted by myporsche

Fantasy island

That is hysterical!!

[SkyJuice]

Data is not accurate. Please close thread.

[RolexSimon]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I do not know what the percentage of retail buyers is who re-sell their watches quickly but I would think it is less than 10 percent in any year. The scarcer the watches get and the higher the used market wholesale buy price is, the more folks will sell. Its just human nature to take profits, even if that was not the intention when buying the watch in the first place.

This whole exercise was - of course - tongue in cheek to gauge reaction. So many posts here (including answers to this thread) seem to believe that all sports models are sold direct to Grey dealers when there is actually very little evidence to support this practice. As someone who watches Chrono 24 pretty regularly, there are many new Rolex watches that stay on for many, many months. When I purchased a watch from a well known Grey dealer in SE Asia earlier this year, I was informed that, although the watch photos were accurate, they didn't actually have the watch in their possession and it would take 3 days for the proof of postage to me to be issued. The truth is that a lot of watches are not really in the hands of Grey dealers at all, they remain in private ownership with individuals speculating that they will sell their watch to the grey for a profit, of which the grey takes a commission. The actual number of watches that sell via this route is, of course, never known. As much as everyone seems happy to throw daggers at my statistics, they also seem reluctant to accept that most watches go to loving owners who sit on the waiting list and are not douches and have a decent relationship with their AD. They may be VIPs with a lot of purchase history and many are not. The fact that Rolex in many countries has instructed ADs to limit watch sales to even VIPs to make the distribution to Mr Average who has waited for several years for their dream watch is incredibly reassuring. I will happily accept that the true figure is probably around 10-20% and will happily put down the gauntlet to others to provide their own statistics to DISPROVE it :-)

[Andad]

Originally Posted by padi56

Think some of the newer members possibly live on fantasy island by looking at one source like Chrono24.

I think you are giving some members way too much credit Pete.

1.13%?



Good one Simon.

[RolexSimon]

Originally Posted by Andad

I think you are giving some members way too much credit Pete.

1.13%?

OK Pete - Ozzy to Ozzy, what do you mean by that?

[Andad]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

OK Pete - Ozzy to Ozzy, what do you mean by that?

I think you got your TIC reaction.

As you said this was not a serious thread...right?

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

I thought I'd do a quick search on Chrono 24 for current 2020-2021 model Rolex watches. only 11307 are for sale of the approx 1,000,000 produced. That's only 1.13% that have been flipped and have made it onto the grey market. There may be others sold from Grey without advertising which might increase it a bit but not to the degree the conspiracy theorists on TRF might want us to believe that ADs sell all their watches to greys directly. Even if ADs got it right 95% of the time and only 5% got flipped I'd still think they were doing a decent job of picking real watch lovers. Just a bit of food for thought.........

Sorry but that logic is flawed. The million figure, even if it were accurate, covers the entire year. Your Chrono search just reflects what is available right now, not what was sold a few days/months ago or will be listed for sale in the future. If we assume what’s for sale renews itself about every two to three weeks, you can multiply your number by a factor of at least 15-20. If anything the proportion of watches that end up on Chrono seems enormous by that math.

[xrole]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

I thought I'd do a quick search on Chrono 24 for current 2020-2021 model Rolex watches. only 11307 are for sale of the approx 1,000,000 produced. That's only 1.13% that have been flipped and have made it onto the grey market. There may be others sold from Grey without advertising which might increase it a bit but not to the degree the conspiracy theorists on TRF might want us to believe that ADs sell all their watches to greys directly. Even if ADs got it right 95% of the time and only 5% got flipped I'd still think they were doing a decent job of picking real watch lovers. Just a bit of food for thought.........

Looking at one website at a single point in time? I think you may have missed a year or two of essential schooling.

[Mendota]

Your statistics professor is instant messaging right now, asking for your degree back!

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

This whole exercise was - of course - tongue in cheek to gauge reaction. So many posts here (including answers to this thread) seem to believe that all sports models are sold direct to Grey dealers when there is actually very little evidence to support this practice. As someone who watches Chrono 24 pretty regularly, there are many new Rolex watches that stay on for many, many months. When I purchased a watch from a well known Grey dealer in SE Asia earlier this year, I was informed that, although the watch photos were accurate, they didn't actually have the watch in their possession and it would take 3 days for the proof of postage to me to be issued. The truth is that a lot of watches are not really in the hands of Grey dealers at all, they remain in private ownership with individuals speculating that they will sell their watch to the grey for a profit, of which the grey takes a commission. The actual number of watches that sell via this route is, of course, never known. As much as everyone seems happy to throw daggers at my statistics, they also seem reluctant to accept that most watches go to loving owners who sit on the waiting list and are not douches and have a decent relationship with their AD. They may be VIPs with a lot of purchase history and many are not. The fact that Rolex in many countries has instructed ADs to limit watch sales to even VIPs to make the distribution to Mr Average who has waited for several years for their dream watch is incredibly reassuring. I will happily accept that the true figure is probably around 10-20% and will happily put down the gauntlet to others to provide their own statistics to DISPROVE it :-)

5/10 for your attempt at a save

[novae500]

No way. Hard to believe w so much inventory in grey market


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by rmwill

And many of those ads are for watches that the seller does not even have. If they get a "sale", they then go acquire the watch from another dealer to complete the order. I bet the real number is well under 1%.

This is correct.

A few trusted sellers will only post watches that they posses, especially those that also own brick and mortar stores. Just an example is DavidSW. Some sites list hundreds of GMTs or Daytonas. He will at times have 1, or 2 and if you are in central FL you can walk in and see them.

Nothing stops a flipper enabler to simply post a photo of a watch at a crazy price. Someone inquires and then the poster goes out and tries to find the watch for less than the price listed. That’s probably a huge percent of the “market.”

Don’t be fooled.

[Ensign]

Originally Posted by Theothergreg

Did you know that 27.38% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

And statistics exist to solely to manipulate public opinion, and are rarely, if ever, accurate.

[Cauhauna]

Originally Posted by OrangeSport

What, and 900,000 Cellinis?

I’d guess datejust, mostly

I’m guessing Cellini is probably in the 20-50k range