Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Exactly, and support your local AD.

Trying to but I am still waiting to find out if I passed my interview.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Trying to but I am still waiting to find out if I passed my interview.

Once we get back to historic norms in pricing, this will (largely) eliminate flipping and we'll get back to normal times. Patience will be rewarded.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Trying to but I am still waiting to find out if I passed my interview.

I think you will be very happy in a couple of months. Hope you get exactly what you want.

[Turbo Racer]

I agree with a lot of what has been said here. A few observations:

Massive amount of AP RO just listed in the last 24 hrs 15510 around 63k with grey dial, 15500 41mm multiple in low-mid 40s full sets

Subs galore with and without a date window. 41mm at around 12.9k with date full set.

There are many more watches coming on market and with these prices I’m wondering just what the heck kind of kool aid I was drinking 6 months or a year ago?

I dumped my nautilus for a partial trade for something I really wanted back in February. So glad I did

Final thought. Those watches that imho haven’t had as much following even though I love some of them, are going to get crushed. Watches like exp 1&2, ak, dd, dj, ym were bolstered by the madness. People who were eager to get a Rolex, in many cases were settling for something they could get as opposed to what they really wanted. I did it, bought a blue stick dial 41 jubilee but would’ve given that a hard pass if offered Gmt or Daytona. As SS subs come down to msrp, I think the other less popular watches will fall even lower.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Once we get back to historic norms in pricing, this will (largely) eliminate flipping and we'll get back to normal times. Patience will be rewarded.

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

I think you will be very happy in a couple of months. Hope you get exactly what you want.

Thanks I expect to never get a call

Apparently buying 3 Rolex and 1 Tudor (except Tudor does not count ) is not enough

I am going to make more changes to my collection anyway and will be long done before they ever think of me

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

I’m wondering just what the heck kind of kool aid I was drinking 6 months or a year ago?

All good, and if I may be allowed to guess, would say it might have been 'herd mentality? Over the decades have never, ever seen such craziness. My hopes are that horology has expanded in overall interest, thus more people desire a fine timepiece to wear and enjoy. So there are benefits, fortunately.

Frankly, high-end audio could use such a 'bubble of popularity'. Soooo many music lovers listening via meh-quality gear.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

Chrono24 just sent me an email saying some Patek 3800s I was watching dropped several thousand dollars.

and I just got an email saying my portfolio has gone up 9% in the last week..

How they determine this, I have no idea..

[NeoDough]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Lord knows how far Richard milles have to fall.

Based purely on my anecdotal observations, Milles don't seem to be selling at all. Has anyone seen one actually sell recently? I think I've maybe seen one in the past two months, and it was (relatively speaking) quite a low price.

[SubMillennial]

What was the expected discount pre-hype for a yellow gold day date? On the shelf vs custom order?

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

What was the expected discount pre-hype for a yellow gold day date? On the shelf vs custom order?

in 2018, I got 15% off a 116618LB Bluesy Gold Sub... I'm sure the Day Date would have been higher... I don't think we're going to see 15% off at an AD ever again however..

[dmash]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

What was the expected discount pre-hype for a yellow gold day date? On the shelf vs custom order?

In the case so it’s sitting right there? 20% EASY, 25% doable.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by HAL330

in 2018, I got 15% off a 116618LB Bluesy Gold Sub... I'm sure the Day Date would have been higher... I don't think we're going to see 15% off at an AD ever again however..

Yeah I agree with this. Value plummets or not, Rolex I think has REALLY tightened down on this. ADs don’t want to lose their status and they’re not going to discount with Rolex telling them not to.

[SubMillennial]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yeah I agree with this. Value plummets or not, Rolex I think has REALLY tightened down on this. ADs don’t want to lose their status and they’re not going to discount with Rolex telling them not to.

is it documented they wouldn't permit discounting? I thought the only rule was not selling above MSRP.

going to be a lot of watches collecting dust if greys are offering 20 to 30% discounts while ADs can't

[Meltingicecube]

It's simple! If the secondary market is trading above MSRP, ADs would not discount but if grey market crashes and stays there for an extended period of time, ADs have no choice but to discount!

[Meltingicecube]

It's easy to tell your ADs not to discount when most of your watches are trading at twice MSRP! Tell them the same thing when watches are trading at 70% of MSRP and all of a sudden Rolex becomes a liability for ADs!

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by NeoDough

Based purely on my anecdotal observations, Milles don't seem to be selling at all. Has anyone seen one actually sell recently? I think I've maybe seen one in the past two months, and it was (relatively speaking) quite a low price.

Value wise they are turning into panerai……now we all know they are a special and rare watch but I think they had there day……

[amh]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

It's easy to tell your ADs not to discount when most of your watches are trading at twice MSRP! Tell them the same thing when watches are trading at 70% of MSRP and all of a sudden Rolex becomes a liability for ADs!

ADs may not discount directly but greys will. The AD-Grey 'relationship' will always exist.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

I very much expect a return to MSRP - or less - for lots of watches!

You’re dreaming. I think this forum is the place we go to dream and imagine a time when Rolexes will be found at MSRP again (or less!). The demand is still way too high. The demand for Rolex watches is still enormous. I’m not a dealer and I have nothing to sell, but the flippers were not the only reason there is huge interest in horology. The cases are still very much empty. At least in 2018 you could find two-tone Datejusts on display for sale.

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by ronricks

The 18000 series day dates are coming down in price fast. These skyrocketed in the last year.

The barked wood dial now has a price drop on Moda.

[Shola]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

What was the expected discount pre-hype for a yellow gold day date? On the shelf vs custom order?

A lot. 20% in the Bahamas and Las Vegas.

[Fedpete]

DD40 olive now in the upper $50s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GoWarriors]

These Moda updates are great guys, thank you so much for posting them :)

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by askdanny

You’re dreaming. I think this forum is the place we go to dream and imagine a time when Rolexes will be found at MSRP again (or less!). The demand is still way too high. The demand for Rolex watches is still enormous. I’m not a dealer and I have nothing to sell, but the flippers were not the only reason there is huge interest in horology. The cases are still very much empty. At least in 2018 you could find two-tone Datejusts on display for sale.

I think you need to be more specific. Demand for NEW watches from the AD at MSRP exceeds supply. Pre-owned watches over MSRP are plentiful so demand is not that high that you cant get any Rolex you want immediately if you are willing to pay the market price. We're seeing the demand over msrp evaporate, it's only a matter of time for that to hit the new @ MSRP demand too.

Now, this might hurt, but what if I told you demand for Rolex isn't that high? What if no one actually cares about Rolex? Here's a Google trends chart of Nike vs Rolex vs Porsche. Most of society doesn't even give half a thought to Rolex. Further, Porsche is more than twice as popular as Rolex yet they they product less than a third of the number of units per year.

I think its safe to say theres been a bubble in Rolex, and a relatively tiny one in society. Once the flippers and influencers move on to the next hype thing like the locusts they are and the free money goes away, Rolex could very quickly find themselves over supplied and plentiful again like they were for most of their history. Often when bubble pop, the market tends to overcorrect....

[DJ4]

Originally Posted by ajw45

I think you need to be more specific. Demand for NEW watches from the AD at MSRP exceeds supply. Pre-owned watches over MSRP are plentiful so demand is not that high that you cant get any Rolex you want immediately if you are willing to pay the market price. We're seeing the demand over msrp evaporate, it's only a matter of time for that to hit the new @ MSRP demand too.

Now, this might hurt, but what if I told you demand for Rolex isn't that high? What if no one actually cares about Rolex? Here's a Google trends chart of Nike vs Rolex vs Porsche. Most of society doesn't even give half a thought to Rolex. Further, Porsche is more than twice as popular as Rolex yet they they product less than a third of the number of units per year.

I think its safe to say theres been a bubble in Rolex, and a relatively tiny one in society. Once the flippers and influencers move on to the next hype thing like the locusts they are and the free money goes away, Rolex could very quickly find themselves over supplied and plentiful again like they were for most of their history. Often when bubble pop, the market tends to overcorrect....

Totally agree

[mountainjogger]

Believe it when I see it.

[Fifteen]

I expect all of us (actual watch enthusiasts) to be able to pick up ANY model at the AD with little to no wait by early next year (perhaps with the exception of Daytona).

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by fifteen

i expect all of us (actual watch enthusiasts) to be able to pick up any model at the ad with little to no wait by early next year (perhaps with the exception of daytona).

qft

[gyang333]

Originally Posted by Fifteen

I expect all of us (actual watch enthusiasts) to be able to pick up ANY model at the AD with little to no wait by early next year (perhaps with the exception of Daytona).

Man, hope this is true lol.

[Patekaholik]

Originally Posted by VegasBaby

Most of the newer members, complaining about the crazy prices of the past two years and whining about how they can’t afford to buy Rolex are now not interested as prices are dropping. Truly, they had no interest in these watches other than for the potential profit they they missed out on by flipping. They’re not interested in buying a Daytona $50,000 nor at $25,000.

This is nothing but the truth.

[bluestreak]

Originally Posted by Fifteen

I expect all of us (actual watch enthusiasts) to be able to pick up ANY model at the AD with little to no wait by early next year (perhaps with the exception of Daytona).

Would be nice, but probably wishful thinking…