Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[SubMillennial]

Originally Posted by ajw45

I think you need to be more specific. Demand for NEW watches from the AD at MSRP exceeds supply. Pre-owned watches over MSRP are plentiful so demand is not that high that you cant get any Rolex you want immediately if you are willing to pay the market price. We're seeing the demand over msrp evaporate, it's only a matter of time for that to hit the new @ MSRP demand too.

Now, this might hurt, but what if I told you demand for Rolex isn't that high? What if no one actually cares about Rolex? Here's a Google trends chart of Nike vs Rolex vs Porsche. Most of society doesn't even give half a thought to Rolex. Further, Porsche is more than twice as popular as Rolex yet they they product less than a third of the number of units per year.

I think its safe to say theres been a bubble in Rolex, and a relatively tiny one in society. Once the flippers and influencers move on to the next hype thing like the locusts they are and the free money goes away, Rolex could very quickly find themselves over supplied and plentiful again like they were for most of their history. Often when bubble pop, the market tends to overcorrect....

This is all correct and should be the go to rebuttal to anyone who has a "feeling that demand is never going away"

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

This is all correct and should be the go to rebuttal to anyone who has a "feeling that demand is never going away"

But but Chinese demand!

[Anestheticsaregood]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yeah I agree with this. Value plummets or not, Rolex I think has REALLY tightened down on this. ADs don’t want to lose their status and they’re not going to discount with Rolex telling them not to.

I tried to get an LB gold sub in around 2018/2019 that was sitting in the case probably over a year. Stickers falling off. Lots of handling wear. I offered around 20% off wire for it and the AD owner said NO. Before all this madness east discounts were rare/ nonexistent from my experience.

[Anestheticsaregood]

Originally Posted by Patekaholik

This is nothing but the truth.

100%
Everyone clamoring for price drops. You weren’t a buyer before and you aren’t now

[ronricks]

Guys - just want to say this thread has been informative and very constructive conversation about a litany of topics of the current market trends. Lets keep this going.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Anestheticsaregood

I tried to get an LB gold sub in around 2018/2019 that was sitting in the case probably over a year. Stickers falling off. Lots of handling wear. I offered around 20% off wire for it and the AD owner said NO. Before all this madness east discounts were rare/ nonexistent from my experience.

Depends on the AD and location.

[FrogWatch]

Originally Posted by Fifteen

I expect all of us (actual watch enthusiasts) to be able to pick up ANY model at the AD with little to no wait by early next year (perhaps with the exception of Daytona).

I sure hope so but I think the AD’s attached to a jewelry store will keep the artificial scarcity going as long as they can. Their bottom lines have never been better by the misc. spend on jewelry to “qualify” for a watch. They aren’t going to give that up anytime soon. Rolexes will always sell. They will always be able to find a buyer. Won’t be any rush for them.


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[whiskyrolex]

Moda update: Unworn Daytona panda sitting at 35k with no bites

[HAL330]

I remember talk of a housing bubble in 2008... and now if you bought a house in 2008, at the top of the bubble, and held on to it, you either doubled or tripled your money today..

What goes up must come down, and what comes down always goes up...

ignore the laws of economics if you want, but for me.. I see now as a buying opportunity for Rolex watches.. if you think we'll get back to a time when you get 20% off from an AD, wait it out.... but if I were a betting man, I'd say inside of a year or two, you'll be wishing you paid that 10% above MSRP for that watch you've been wanting for a while.

I did my due diligence and felt buying now makes sense... maybe I'll be wrong, in which case I might lose 10-20% in value... who cares? I buy to wear, not to flip.

[DJ4]

Originally Posted by whiskyrolex

Moda update: Unworn Daytona panda sitting at 35k with no bites

Wow…
U know about actual trade prices of AP RO 41 ST… ?
just curious…


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[huncho]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I remember talk of a housing bubble in 2008... and now if you bought a house in 2008, at the top of the bubble, and held on to it, you either doubled or tripled your money today..

What goes up must come down, and what comes down always goes up...

ignore the laws of economics if you want, but for me.. I see now as a buying opportunity for Rolex watches.. if you think we'll get back to a time when you get 20% off from an AD, wait it out.... but if I were a betting man, I'd say inside of a year or two, you'll be wishing you paid that 10% above MSRP for that watch you've been wanting for a while.

I did my due diligence and felt buying now makes sense... maybe I'll be wrong, in which case I might lose 10-20% in value... who cares? I buy to wear, not to flip.

people have been buying watches with the expectation that they lose money once you walk out the door for years. i don't personally see any reason to not buy near msrp or msrp+slight premium today if it's something you've wanted for a while. like you said, price can go down but there should be no shame for buying near msrp ...

i think the people waiting to buy the actual bottom with discounts like before 2017 might be waiting a long time (or forever). it's very similar to the stocks/crypto market. how many people were begging for bitcoin to drop to 30-40k one last time when it was near highs so they could buy it and then it drops to 17k and they were nowhere to be found because now they're waiting for 10k. they'll be buying back much higher lol

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I remember talk of a housing bubble in 2008... and now if you bought a house in 2008, at the top of the bubble, and held on to it, you either doubled or tripled your money today.

Yes, but currency has devalued nearly 50% to 70%.

Yes, the next bubble should begin around 2033 and peak two years later. It's a feature, not a bug, of their system.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by Anestheticsaregood

100%
Everyone clamoring for price drops. You weren’t a buyer before and you aren’t now

Wrong.

I refuse to pay gray markup on principle. I'll never forgive them for their significant role in creating this current shortage/bubble.

If my AD ever gets a new Sub or BLNR/jubilee, I'm buying. If they both arrived on the same day, I'd buy them both.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yeah I agree with this. Value plummets or not, Rolex I think has REALLY tightened down on this. ADs don’t want to lose their status and they’re not going to discount with Rolex telling them not to.

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

is it documented they wouldn't permit discounting? I thought the only rule was not selling above MSRP.

going to be a lot of watches collecting dust if greys are offering 20 to 30% discounts while ADs can't

I was at my AD late last week, and I was told Rolex has threatened loss of AD status if they discount. Of course, this just applies to retail customers.

And who knows what the future will bring. If we ever get to the place where display cases are full (and more inventory in the safe), ADs might be allowed to discount again.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

I was at my AD late last week, and I was told Rolex has threatened loss of AD status if they discount. Of course, this just applies to retail customers.

And who knows what the future will bring. If we ever get to the place where display cases are full (and more inventory in the safe), ADs might be allowed to discount again.

Ok.. no discounts then. But I'll expect them to give me a free gift... maybe some jewelry, diamonds or gold.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

I was at my AD late last week, and I was told Rolex has threatened loss of AD status if they discount. Of course, this just applies to retail customers.

And who knows what the future will bring. If we ever get to the place where display cases are full (and more inventory in the safe), ADs might be allowed to discount again.

Correct. ADs are facing pressure like never before and we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of ADs lose their status. Discounts are 100% finished in my opinion. Promise of a second watch or discount on jewelry is all you’ll get if prices do all settle back down.

I actually like this though, maintains the value long term.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by whiskyrolex

Moda update: Unworn Daytona panda sitting at 35k with no bites

He just dropped it down to 34600 rn


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Wrong.

I refuse to pay gray markup on principle. I'll never forgive them for their significant role in creating this current shortage/bubble.

If my AD ever gets a new Sub or BLNR/jubilee, I'm buying. If they both arrived on the same day, I'd buy them both.

Also agree with this as well. I refuse to ever pay over MSRP on 1. principle and 2. because that makes me part of the problem we currently have. I purchase the watches from my AD whenever it comes in. Just got the new sub, have my wife a diamond DJ on order, will happily wait on a BLRO. People are confusing impatience with people being actual buyers.

[1259]

Originally Posted by Anestheticsaregood

100%
Everyone clamoring for price drops. You weren’t a buyer before and you aren’t now

What an odd and illogical statement. Why would someone who has no interest care about gray prices.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I remember talk of a housing bubble in 2008... and now if you bought a house in 2008, at the top of the bubble, and held on to it, you either doubled or tripled your money today..

What goes up must come down, and what comes down always goes up...

ignore the laws of economics if you want, but for me.. I see now as a buying opportunity for Rolex watches.. if you think we'll get back to a time when you get 20% off from an AD, wait it out.... but if I were a betting man, I'd say inside of a year or two, you'll be wishing you paid that 10% above MSRP for that watch you've been wanting for a while.

I did my due diligence and felt buying now makes sense... maybe I'll be wrong, in which case I might lose 10-20% in value... who cares? I buy to wear, not to flip.

Current grey prices aren’t even at parity with MSRP + tax on a lot of models though. I don’t consider it a ‘buying opportunity’ until that point is reached.

[DJ4]

Bought a tt sub and an explorer ii in the last year - MY AD kept saying all the time that it’s not possible to put me on the waiting list for SS gmt ii/Daytona/sub

“The waiting list for sport models on as are close due to enormous people who are waiting “ that was the answer all the time

Maybe it’s gonna be possible soon? I wish

[NeoDough]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Yes, but currency has devalued nearly 50% to 70%.

People consistently fail to grasp this concept when looking at historical prices. If your real, current dollar is worth 50% less, then a 100% nominal increase in an asset's value means you've broken even.

[flyingdoctor]

Totally agree. Also not everywhere saw such fantastic increases in house prices. Also your house may be worth more but so is the house you want to buy when you sell yours unless you move from, say, San Francisco to middle of nowhere USA.

And of course there is the lovely thing called property tax and maybe you needed a new roof, new siding, new boiler, wife wants a new kitchen... I see many people grinning on that one :-)

Yep, some people lucked out in the housing market, just the way did some did buying Rolex watches or bitcoin etc. Other people just bought watches to wear and enjoy them.

Originally Posted by NeoDough

People consistently fail to grasp this concept when looking at historical prices. If your real, current dollar is worth 50% less, then a 100% nominal increase in an asset's value means you've broken even.

[dmash]

Package deal on MODA:

New complete set 126710BLNR
+
New complete set 116500LN black dial

$44.5k

[Sunstreaker]

Originally Posted by dmash

Package deal on MODA:

New complete set 126710BLNR
+
New complete set 116500LN black dial

$44.5k

Still over priced for both.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Sunstreaker

Still over priced for both.

Not saying it isn’t, simply showcasing they’re continuously going down. You could probably chop those up as $17k for the BLNR and $27.5k for the black Daytona. We’re still trending downwards.

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I remember talk of a housing bubble in 2008... and now if you bought a house in 2008, at the top of the bubble, and held on to it, you either doubled or tripled your money today..

What goes up must come down, and what comes down always goes up...

ignore the laws of economics if you want, but for me.. I see now as a buying opportunity for Rolex watches.. if you think we'll get back to a time when you get 20% off from an AD, wait it out.... but if I were a betting man, I'd say inside of a year or two, you'll be wishing you paid that 10% above MSRP for that watch you've been wanting for a while.

I did my due diligence and felt buying now makes sense... maybe I'll be wrong, in which case I might lose 10-20% in value... who cares? I buy to wear, not to flip.

I think your logic is 100% correct when speaking of certain markets.
Stock markets, companies continue to grow, continue to revolutionize, and find solutions or accessibility to daily hurdles that we face.

Housing market, understandably, limited land in prime areas, extreme demand, tons of excess cash, along with alot of other variables.
Rolex watches? In production today, tomorrow, and for the next 100+ years.
They are in the business of manufacturing and selling watches after all, and they will continue to roll out watches when the economy is bad, good, and long after the "hype" is faded.
I believe your theory to be true with certain markets 100%. Even antiques, quality vintage watches, and in products where the buyer simply asks what he/she wants and the contenders are few.

Every dealer in every corner of every city of the world has 116500s, 5711, 15202s, etc etc etc.
This won't end well for investors in the modern watch market IMO.

[ajw45]

LOL. Are you guys serious? Rolexes are not houses. Everyone needs a place to live, no one needs a luxury watch. Let's not confuse legitimate investments with income potential with luxury baubles. That's right, baubles. Modern Rolexes don't even qualify as collectibles because there are too many of them in circulation to EVER be valuable based on rarity. Unlike classic cars, the production numbers are huge and keep going up instead of down. Unlike art there are few true piece uniques, hand work, or a famous artist behind them. Unlike housing or stocks there is no income or growth potential. These are just fancy garbage pail kid cards or beanie babies. Name a LUXURY ACCESSORY made in the millions and still in production that has EVER gone up in value over the long term.

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I remember talk of a housing bubble in 2008... and now if you bought a house in 2008, at the top of the bubble, and held on to it, you either doubled or tripled your money today.

This vastly overstates average USA appreciation. Case Shiller’s model of same home median price sales, shows an increase of 60% from the July 2006 previous high to March of this year. If you were fortunate to purchase at the February 2012 low, your appreciation is 120%. When you calculate it on an annual IRR, it is 3.1% and 8.0% per annum, respectively.

The press loves to tell you all the success stories. My wife has been a Realtor for many years and these rates of average growth are certainly more accurate. Some areas do better, others worse.

[Anestheticsaregood]

Originally Posted by 1259

What an odd and illogical statement. Why would someone who has no interest care about gray prices.

I meant that as prices go down when people get that call from the AD they will pass. Many don’t want the watches if they lose $ once they walk out the door (that is if prices get as low as people are hoping for)