Finally happened with jumbo 50th anniversary

[bourgognebob]

Just saw on Chrono24 a 16202 anniversary go up for 68k… first time seeing a complete set go for under 70k. Happy I haven’t pulled the trigger yet.

[Benzsiam]

I am waiting for 16202BA to come down below $100k.

[vakman]

4 unworn under 70k at the moment. Good process.

So I think the dealers wil be paying around 60k stil a quick €24k for the flippers

[bourgognebob]

It feels like stock investing right now… is this the lowest that it’ll go or does it still have room to go down further?

[vakman]

i think and hope a lot lower at the end of the year.

[Benzsiam]

It might go a bit lower but it won’t be that much.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

It might go a bit lower but it won’t be that much.

Are u a secondary grey mkt muppet boiler room salesman? I hope not… stop acting as u have any idea… a $36k mass produced SS that is played out will trade 30% below retail.. u do with your money as u wish

[XFi1382]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Are u a secondary grey mkt muppet boiler room salesman? I hope not… stop acting as u have any idea… a $36k mass produced SS that is played out will trade 30% below retail.. u do with your money as u wish

Mass produced? Not really, with approx. 1,000 to 2,000 being produced every year (probably closer to 1,000 giving the many other references released), and many more people wanting the watch.

Add to that the fact that AP boutiques usually only offer this watch after a few purchases... Making it that much harder to obtain at retail.

My hypothesis is that the secondary price might drop a tiny bit more, before slowly starting to climb again. Not a steep climb, but a slow and steady one...

Anyhow, only time will tell!

[huncho]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Are u a secondary grey mkt muppet boiler room salesman? I hope not… stop acting as u have any idea… a $36k mass produced SS that is played out will trade 30% below retail.. u do with your money as u wish

do you do anything on this website besides shit on patek/ap and peoples opinions if they don't align with yours?

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by huncho

do you do anything on this website besides shit on patek/ap and peoples opinions if they don't align with yours?

Nope

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by huncho

do you do anything on this website besides shit on patek/ap and peoples opinions if they don't align with yours?

i don't pretend I know stuff I don't...

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by vliberman

i don't pretend I know stuff I don't...

How'd you call this then: "a $36k mass produced SS that is played out will trade 30% below retail."

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

How'd you call this then: "a $36k mass produced SS that is played out will trade 30% below retail."

Do u disagree with that assessment? Then express your view and contribute here! That is what contribution to the forum is all about.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Do u disagree with that assessment? Then express your view and contribute here! That is what contribution to the forum is all about.

Given that my post count is 20x higher than yours, I don't know that I need advice on how to contribute here.

I doubt very much that the Jumbo will be at $25k on the secondary market any time soon. In the long run, we'll all be dead, but some of us will have enjoyed our watches in the mean time, unlike the OP.

[bourgognebob]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Given that my post count is 20x higher than yours, I don't know that I need advice on how to contribute here.

I doubt very much that the Jumbo will be at $25k on the secondary market any time soon. In the long run, we'll all be dead, but some of us will have enjoyed our watches in the mean time, unlike the OP.

Geez. Coming after me now? Thanks.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by bourgognebob

Geez. Coming after me now? Thanks.

Apologies - it’s a tough decision to make, unless the $30k premium is couch money.


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[sensui]

Unless the Royal Oak becomes completely the opposite of fashion (it could of course happen, look at how long it took to catch on), I don't think the jumbo is ever going to be a non secondary premium watch. The only way these watches are allocated (I'd say over 95% of these minus the rare exceptions) are to customers with a diverse portfolio.... And sometimes not all these customers wanted all these watches in their portfolio to begin with working towards the jumbo. All these people have invested into the brand to a certain extent already and it's unrealistic to expect MSRP or less buying it on the secondary. It has very little to do with giving secondary sellers the premium on the watch minus the typical commission rates acting as the intermediary.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by sensui

Unless the Royal Oak becomes completely the opposite of fashion (it could of course happen, look at how long it took to catch on), I don't think the jumbo is ever going to be a non secondary premium watch. The only way these watches are allocated (I'd say over 95% of these minus the rare exceptions) are to customers with a diverse portfolio.... And sometimes not all these customers wanted all these watches in their portfolio to begin with working towards the jumbo. All these people have invested into the brand to a certain extent already and it's unrealistic to expect MSRP or less buying it on the secondary. It has very little to do with giving secondary sellers the premium on the watch minus the typical commission rates acting as the intermediary.

Given that this is mass produced watch, the supply side always expands.. the demand side doesn’t have to particularly as initial group of people who really want this watch already acquired one… so unless the marginal buyers emerge price will dip. So to pay any premium today is speculative. I would not pay the premium!

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Given that this is mass produced watch, the supply side always expands.. the demand side doesn’t have to particularly as initial group of people who really want this watch already acquired one… so unless the marginal buyers emerge price will dip. So to pay any premium today is speculative. I would not pay the premium!

There are babies born every minute. Some of these babies will want a Jumbo when they grow up, just like me.

[sensui]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Given that this is mass produced watch, the supply side always expands.. the demand side doesn’t have to particularly as initial group of people who really want this watch already acquired one… so unless the marginal buyers emerge price will dip. So to pay any premium today is speculative. I would not pay the premium!

You probably missed some of the points in my post. I'll try to spell it out more clearly.

People that had a jumbo allocated at list paid their dues.

Most (including myself) will never build that type of portfolio to be allocated one.

Hence most including myself does not get to buy a jumbo without a premium because this premium is now a small portion of what it takes to build that portfolio on the secondary market.

[Audevache]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Given that this is mass produced watch, the supply side always expands.. the demand side doesn’t have to particularly as initial group of people who really want this watch already acquired one… so unless the marginal buyers emerge price will dip. So to pay any premium today is speculative. I would not pay the premium!

1-2,000 pieces per year is "mass produced"? That's 3-5 per day. We really live in different worlds.

And with the first signals from the new CEO, I don't see production volumes being increased significantly any time soon.

[AEV]

Previous CEO said that the max number per reference is 1.400.
Jumbo could be even lower than that.
Production volumes most likely will remain the same as said by current CEO.

So it's hardly a mass produced piece.

[Verticalforce]

If Jumbo ever went below retail it will mean the normal Royal Oak will be much lower than retail..
The way to get Jumbo right now is to play the game and get it as the 4th or 5th piece minimum. As long as RO popularity is up, doubt it will go under retail anytime soon. Looking at celeb culture and those wearing AP (Travis Scott, Tom Brady, Kevin Hart etc.), the hype is at its peak right now whether you like it or not. And unlike PAM, AP does have some substance and quality to back up the hype.
So if you want to wait until it gets below retail it may happen but it will take years.. maybe 10+ years if taste and fashion completely flips. At that point you may not even want to browse rolexforum anyway and won't take advantage of the discount as no one wants such watches.. so what is the point.

[Uros]

Dont think it will go below retail any time soon but it will not remain hot piece as the fashion needs to change in order to stay relevant. New Nautilus for example has more of a offshore vibe and now people may look for non steel bracelet everywhere after usual instagram/celebrity push plus there are so many steel royal oaks (41mm included) that it is hard to say it is exclusive. When i bought Jumbo in 2017 it was cca 18k eur retail now is almost double, realistically speaking it is max 40k watch so the price may land between 40, 50k dependinh also how will bitcoin perform:):)

In any case its enjoying to watch and wait, postivie side if the hype/price goes down we can again start actully wearing watches when abroad or travelling, max I wear now even in EU when travel is 10yr old Panerai.


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[codecow]

It’s still very rare to see a steel Royal Oak randomly. I have seen exactly one that I remember.

Last time I was in Vegas waiting to check in at Aria there was a guy in the same line with a rose gold RO chrono. Now that’s one you REALLY don’t see. He had the same TUMI McLaren luggage as I did but my DD 40 onyx seemed lame in comparison to his ROC although it’s likely more Vegas.

As for the watch in question, it will likely decline some this year until November and then after the election who knows. It’s never trading below retail, that’s just silly.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by sensui

You probably missed some of the points in my post. I'll try to spell it out more clearly.

People that had a jumbo allocated at list paid their dues.

Most (including myself) will never build that type of portfolio to be allocated one.

Hence most including myself does not get to buy a jumbo without a premium because this premium is now a small portion of what it takes to build that portfolio on the secondary market.

Perhaps u missed my point on “special people such as yourself got one”. Meantime the supply goes up every year by whatever number you guys suggest, say 1,500 although that number is much larger. So take every one 15202 plus 16202 and that pile grows every year. Now u tell me you will never sell, but most people will. Life happens. Premium goes down and one tries to lock in at least some profit. Hell, even Sly sold some of his watches. At the same time, demand is down. This is the fact! How do I know, price is down. Whenever demand down, it is always either production up or demand down. U told me it ain’t production, so it is demand!

Now, u are going to tell me that this equilibrium point will be achieved here, I call bs on that. Since momentum on price decline is high! So price will go lower. By how much, well we all have our opinions.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Audevache

1-2,000 pieces per year is "mass produced"? That's 3-5 per day. We really live in different worlds.

And with the first signals from the new CEO, I don't see production volumes being increased significantly any time soon.

Yes, it is mass produced. Just to give u some idea, the entire MB&F run is sub 500, FPJ is sub 1,000. All the models!

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by huncho

do you do anything on this website besides shit on patek/ap and peoples opinions if they don't align with yours?

Perhaps u should look at some of my recent posts, have been working overtime to get in your good grace on content production! Enjoy!

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Yes, it is mass produced. Just to give u some idea, the entire MB&F run is sub 500, FPJ is sub 1,000. All the models!

That's incorrect - FP Journe produces about 1,000 mechanical watches per year, excluding another 400-500 units of the quartz-powered Elegante. Total 1,400-1,500 watches.

https://watchesbysjx.com/2023/10/ins...ure-visit.html

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

That's incorrect - FP Journe produces about 1,000 mechanical watches per year, excluding another 400-500 units of the quartz-powered Elegante. Total 1,400-1,500 watches.

https://watchesbysjx.com/2023/10/ins...ure-visit.html

Please re-read the article, it says around 1,000. Sub 1,000 is around 1,000, isn’t it????? Now I was just at FPJ collectors event hosted by the brand and the 900 figure was used, total.

Now, u are missing the bigger point, as usual. The entire brand producing less watches than one SS line, not including gold or other special super limited variants… please stop nit picking and think broader!