Teddy’s take on supply and demand

[cydesai]

Just saw Teddy Baldassarre’s new video on luxury watch market and supply /demand. Nothing new here but lots of cool economics basics and overall a very well produced video.

Check it out: https://youtu.be/rLB27j4vZnU

[jbenjamin1]

Well done!

[macrowatch]

I can just picture my econ 101 class drawing one line for supply, one line for demand, and pushing that demand curve all the way to the right then labeling everything in the triangle as a shortage…

[Polarexplorerii]

it was a great video!

[Belugahype]

Whoever his editor is did a fantastic job of visualizing his explanations. Fantastic and very interesting video, makes me glad I was able to get my Rolex right before the frenzy.

[cydesai]

Originally Posted by Belugahype

Whoever his editor is did a fantastic job of visualizing his explanations. Fantastic and very interesting video, makes me glad I was able to get my Rolex right before the frenzy.

My thoughts exactly! The editor/producer of the video did a phenomenal job with all the visual explanations.

[huncho]

my best decision so far was going grey for an AP at the end of 2019 for like a 15% premium at the time. i'd probably still be waiting to get one and would never pay the premiums now

[Roli4life]

Very well done, and made even more sure that I shouldn’t sell any of my watches. Even if the marking is offering wheelbarrows of $ for them.

[Mr. K]

I like this video. Makes me think.

[enjoythemusic]

Seems like common sense really.

Can't help but think about all the trillions in currency central banks have been giving away (literally) freely in the past year or two, it has to go somewhere. Glad the Swiss timepiece market (and luxury audio) is getting their well-deserved share.

[TimepieceRPP]

Originally Posted by huncho

my best decision so far was going grey for an AP at the end of 2019 for like a 15% premium at the time. i'd probably still be waiting to get one and would never pay the premiums now

It was too late for me now, 5712 is unreachable.

Good video.

[Mystro]

Very good perspective and many newbies would be well served to learn these very basic points.

As a long time player in the watch game, I am at peace now knowing the old days of Rolex are forever gone. It’s a sign of the times and a evolution of the brand. It will never be like it was 10 years ago in the market again. For those of us that were waiting for a market bubble to pop the last few years have learned it wasn’t a bubble but a balloon and it flew away.

Rolex is moving more upmarket because they are the king. No disrespect for PP or AP but their name recognition and as a symbol to the general public isn’t in the same universe as Rolex so those two brands have to play their watch designs and appeal differently than the mass produced Rolex with the unmatched name recognition.

[Chester01]

The thousand gray dealers that have cropped up in the last 5 years, buying up like thousands and thousands of watches could not have anything to with it huh. Nah, too simple of an explanation for folks.

[Calatrava r]

The pre-owned market has always been there and usually sold used Rolex watches at a discount. Their prices today just reflect the market. This video to me suggests the supply side is being intentionally limited to create future demand into the next century when the watch market could, otherwise, be totally obsolete. Who needs a traditional watch today with cell phones. The future is really unknown for the watch industry. Most of the watch industry is actually struggling today particularly on the entry level brands.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Chester01

The thousand gray dealers that have cropped up in the last 5 years, buying up like thousands and thousands of watches could not have anything to with it huh. Nah, too simple of an explanation for folks.

Yup. Far too much currency chasing too few goods... capitalism.

[spikep]

Great video

[IamJacky]

Well produced video, agreed with pretty much everything he said. There're definitely more factors that contribute into the crazy surge of demand in recent years but I think he's covered some of the most obvious ones.

[T4ME]

I enjoyed the video. Thanks for posting

[PepsiBezel]

I saw this video today, and join the chorus that this was a very well produced and simply explained summary of the Rolex (and AP/PP) market today. A great watch for those looking to understand what is going on — very simply and rationally explained without the emotion, naïveté or angst that often appears in these discussions.

[chiscott_29]

This was an excellent video. It took all elements of emotion out of the equation, which is important. I think many of us as collectors often let emotions enter into play, and that’s when we make irrational comments and/or decisions. God knows I’ve made my share of both…

I think it lays bare the two choices we face with Rolex/AP/Patek/RM watches:

- Be patient and realistic with AD/Boutiques
- Pay market rate

Each person has to make their own personal decision. There are no other options, shortcuts, or strategies.


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[Choo Yao Chuen]

Great video. Thanks for sharing.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Solid vid. Thanks for sharing

[garyk]

Excellent. Like others have said, real glad I made some great purchases in the past few years...

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Great video.

Was in Carmel yesterday and stopped in at an AD since I was in the area. The display cases were filled with exhibition pieces. I asked about the Daytona and was told I would never get one with them and the Batman “won’t be this year, next year, or the year after. It would be a substantial wait.” Crazy right? The video mentioned the dilemma that ADs go through and that is how do they decide whom to sell that one piece to. Makes perfect sense but at the same time drives away those that are trying to get into the game/Rolex family. And to think, this is all for a watch.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

This was an excellent video. It took all elements of emotion out of the equation, which is important. I think many of us as collectors often let emotions enter into play, and that’s when we make irrational comments and/or decisions. God knows I’ve made my share of both…

I think it lays bare the two choices we face with Rolex/AP/Patek/RM watches:

- Be patient and realistic with AD/Boutiques
- Pay market rate

Each person has to make their own personal decision. There are no other options, shortcuts, or strategies.


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i think the worst part about being patient is that there's no guarantee here. i find that waiting with no timetable or actual possibility is one of the most hopeless feelings because you're also watching the premiums go up every month that goes by. really unfortunate for the new people that are actually getting in for the love of the watches

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by huncho

i think the worst part about being patient is that there's no guarantee here. i find that waiting with no timetable or actual possibility is one of the most hopeless feelings because you're also watching the premiums go up every month that goes by. really unfortunate for the new people that are actually getting in for the love of the watches

I am 100% in agreement with you and this is where I think things could go off the rails. I think most of us that are really into watches and into a specific brand or model will gladly wait for that grail. Months and even years. But you’re spot on. They have to deliver. And there is no reason that a brand that touts “the relationship” (I’m looking at you, AP) has any excuse to not deliver and set reasonable expectations.

I feel right now there are a lot of people being left disappointed - both established customers and new customers. And the fuel to that fire is to see these watches DO exist and they are ending up in the wrong hands. And if this continues, something will break in the chain.


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[csaltphoto]

Originally Posted by ThatOtherGuy7

Great video.

Was in Carmel yesterday and stopped in at an AD since I was in the area. The display cases were filled with exhibition pieces. I asked about the Daytona and was told I would never get one with them and the Batman “won’t be this year, next year, or the year after. It would be a substantial wait.” Crazy right? The video mentioned the dilemma that ADs go through and that is how do they decide whom to sell that one piece to. Makes perfect sense but at the same time drives away those that are trying to get into the game/Rolex family. And to think, this is all for a watch.

I've always liked visiting that one and they generally have more stock than most. But I am also aware the competition is extremely stiff in that area. TONS of uber-wealthy people with a lot of disposable income.

[mk2jag]

The whole idea of wanting something that you really cant get can lead to all sorts of negative practices and attitudes. I stoped wanting stuff that I really don't need and certainly can't get and im all the better off for it. if I can't be satisfied with the things I already have then im focused on all the wrong things and missing the bigger picture.

[Rado63]

Solid social media Rolex clickbait video that gets the buying public into a frenzy as they have the fear of missing out. Today, on C24 there are 252 PP 5711A for sale, and 168 green dial Daytonas for sale today. So what is the availability of the outgoing 1861 Speedmaster a watch made for the masses and it is a watch with a following but not a watch sold to selected few? There are 322 available today on C24. Want a 116500LN? there are 686 steel Daytonas available on C24 today. There is a new buyer out there today. A buyer who has no interest in keeping the watch, so it isn't conspicuous consumption, it's speculation. Seems more people must be keeping their Speedmasters, while the Nautilus and Daytonas attract the flippers and speculators.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I am 100% in agreement with you and this is where I think things could go off the rails. I think most of us that are really into watches and into a specific brand or model will gladly wait for that grail. Months and even years. But you’re spot on. They have to deliver. And there is no reason that a brand that touts “the relationship” (I’m looking at you, AP) has any excuse to not deliver and set reasonable expectations.

I feel right now there are a lot of people being left disappointed - both established customers and new customers. And the fuel to that fire is to see these watches DO exist and they are ending up in the wrong hands. And if this continues, something will break in the chain.


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not sure what can even be done since at this point a lot of people on both sides (existing and new) are taking any watch they get offered because in today's market it's silly to say no to something that you can flip for more money if you don't like it. aside from increasing production which i'm heavily against because i think it will absolutely kill brand prestige years down the road if this craze dies down and watches flood the market